2026 年 3 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 2 月） 把握景气有支撑的周期涨价、科技制造两大主线 证券分析师 策略配置研究 平安观点： 2. 中游制造：新能源材料成本压力边际缓和，内需修复仍待观察。价的方面， 2 月光伏、电池产业链材料价格多数调整（硅料、硅片、六氟磷酸锂、电解液 等），成本压力有所缓和。量的方面，细分行业有分化，1 月机械设备领域的挖 掘机械的国内、出口销量环比虽回落，但同比显著增长，或与 Q4 财政发力带 动基建需求有关；但 1 月国内汽车销量显著走弱，乘用车销量同、环比均下滑， 新能源汽车销量环比下滑 44.8%，对应动力电池装车量环比也显著下滑。 3. TMT：半导体涨价趋势延续，AI 算力硬件的高景气延续（PCB/光模块）。AI 产业继续支撑硬件端需求。一是以存储为代表的半导体涨价趋势延续，2 月 DXI 指数环比上涨 6.1%，同比涨幅已超 12 倍；12 月全球和中国半导体销售额也维 持同、环比正增。二是 PCB、光模块等算力硬件维持高景气，1 月台股 PCB 原 料、制造营收同比均实现两位数增长；光模块最新出口金额、数量维持在近两 年高位（25 年 12 月） ...

2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》，初步核算，全年 国内生产总值比上年增长5.0%，国民总收入比上年增长5.1%。国家统计局副局长盛来运对公报进行了 评读。 盛来运指出，2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。最新发布 的《2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》以权威翔实的数据全景展现中国经济"稳"的格局、"进"的势 头、"韧"的特性。 值得注意的是，盛来运在对公报进行评读时强调了三个"首次"：经济总量首次突破140万亿元大关、研 发经费投入首次超过OECD国家平均水平、货物进出口总额首次突破45万亿元。 经济总量首次突破140万亿元大关 对于2025年的中国经济整体运行，盛来运认为，中国经济"攻坚克难促发展，综合国力再上新台阶"，" 过去一年，是多重压力交织叠加的一年，也是收获满满、成色十足的一年"，主要体现在三个方面： 经济总量实现新跨越。2025年，我国国内生产总值（GDP）比上年增长5.0%，经济总量首次突破140万 亿元大关，圆满完成预期目标任务，"十四五"时期连续跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万 ...

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reflecting a significant economic milestone [1] - The economic growth corresponds to an increase of over 5 trillion yuan, showcasing the enhancement of agricultural and industrial production capabilities and the vitality of the service sector [1] R&D Investment - Total R&D expenditure is expected to increase by 8.1%, reaching 2.80% of GDP, exceeding the OECD average for the first time [1] - Basic research funding will account for 7.08% of total R&D expenditure, indicating a strengthening of technological self-reliance [1] Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, with domestic demand contributing 67.3% to economic growth [2] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth will rise by 5.0 percentage points to 52.0% [2] Logistics and Capital Markets - The logistics system is being upgraded, with cargo transport volume and turnover increasing by 3.2% and 4.6% respectively [2] - The ratio of total logistics costs to GDP is expected to decrease to 13.9%, indicating improved efficiency [2] - The broad money supply (M2) is projected to grow by 8.5%, with A-share financing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increasing by 833.2 billion yuan [2] Green Energy Transition - The share of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption is expected to rise to 30.4% [3] - Energy consumption per unit of GDP is projected to decrease by 5.1%, while carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decline by 5.0% [3] - Production of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 16 million units, maintaining a leading position globally for 11 consecutive years [3] Environmental Quality - The proportion of water quality assessment points with good water quality is expected to remain above 90% for two consecutive years [3] - Over 70% of cities at the prefecture level or above are projected to meet air quality standards [3]

攻坚应变顶压前行 稳中有进向新向优 ——《2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》评读 国家统计局副局长 盛来运 经济总量实现新跨越。2025年，我国国内生产总值（GDP）比上年增长5.0%，经济总量首次突破140万 亿元大关，圆满完成预期目标任务，"十四五"时期连续跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万 亿元四个大台阶。随着我国经济规模持续扩大，5%的经济增长对应的经济增量超过5万亿元。中国经济 总量实现新突破，反映的是一个百万亿级经济体工农业生产能力的再提升、服务业发展活力的再释放， 是亿万家庭安居乐业的重要保障，是中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大的集中体现。 人均发展水平取得新进步。2025年，我国人均GDP达到99665元，比上年增长5.1%，按年平均汇率折算 达13953美元，连续3年超过1.3万美元。人均GDP稳步提高，得益于科技创新的引领，现代化产业体系 加快构建，以及新质生产力蓬勃发展。与此同时，反映生产效率、国民素质的人均指标也在不断进步， 全员劳动生产率比上年提高6.1%，快于经济增速1.1个百分点；16—59岁人口平均受教育年限提高0.1 年。 国际影响力实现新提升。 ...

编辑丨苏木 文丨苏木 本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章结尾 全世界都没想到，中国悄悄干成一件颠覆认知的大事！ 联合国分类里41个工业大类、666个小类，我们居然全部集齐，是全球唯一做到的国家。 有人说从此世界格局被彻底改写，地球上只剩两个国家：一个叫中国，一个叫其他国家。 这不是夸张，而是工业实力带来的真实变局。 真正的全能冠军 很多人对中国制造的印象还停留在工厂多的阶段，但咱们得看数据。 工信部和国家统计局的最新账本显示，中国制造业增加值占全球的比重已经快摸到30%的门槛了。 这不仅仅是连续15年拿全球冠军那么简单，这意味着，现在全球每生产三件工业品，就有一件身上流淌着中国工业的血液。 2024年，我国全部工业增加值冲到了40.5万亿元，大家可能会觉得这只是数字，但背后的结构很有意思：那些搞高端装备、搞高技术的行业，增长速度比传 统行业快得多。 但中国显然不信这个邪，咱们通过构建这套完整的体系，硬是从那个低水平循环的陷阱里爬了出来。 现在咱们正经历从堆量到拼脑子的惊人跳跃，2024年的中国制造强国发展指数一直在涨，咱们已经稳稳地迈进了全球制造强国的第二梯队，成了继美、德、 日之后，又一个在这个行 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's crude steel production reached 96,081.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [1] - The total steel output in 2025 was 144,612.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The production of refined copper was 1,472.0 million tons, reflecting a growth of 10.4% [2] - The output of aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 4,501.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.4% [2] - Cement production decreased to 16.9 billion tons, down by 6.9% compared to the previous year [2] - The production of electric power generation units reached 37,087.4 million kilowatts, marking a significant increase of 37.6% [2] - The output of new energy vehicles was 1,652.4 million units, representing a growth of 25.1% [2]

消息面上，我国新一代太阳能电池研究取得新进展！2月26日，中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所团队围绕铜锌锡硫硒光伏硒化相变过程中"金属离子迁 移不可控"的技术瓶颈，提出了Li₂SnS₃界面相平衡调控金属离子迁移、进而辅助晶粒相变生长的新机制。借助该新方法，基于铜锌锡硫硒材料的太阳能电池 光电转换效率突破15%，标志着我国在新一代太阳能电池研究中走在了世界前列。相关研究成果于2月25日发表在国际期刊《自然·能源》上。 2月27日早盘，A股市场震荡，光伏ETF汇添富(516290)上涨1.73%，轻松反包昨日跌幅。 根据业内报道，全球算力需求高涨，单纯依赖地面数据中心逐步显现瓶颈，太空算力已成为卫星新的应用场景。太空算力的核心价值在于突破地面能源瓶 颈，通过太阳翼提供持续、稳定、高密度的清洁能源。相比地面，太空光伏的发电量相较地面提升数倍。 太空光伏正从概念走向产业化落地，SpaceX计划在美国打造100GW级光伏产能，预计3–4年内完成；蓝色起源、谷歌及中日欧多家龙头亦加速布局。据 Starcloud白皮书，在太空部署40MW数据中心（10年运行）总成本约820万美元，相比地面数据中心的1.67亿美元，降低95 ...

马年初五，胖东来节后恢复营业，天南海北人流量袭来，首日客流量超30万，"预计排队3小时以上"。 春节假期期间，村口新开的蜜雪冰城变身返乡青年的"深夜食堂"，取餐号一度排到了1404号。 9天春节假期，河南省接待国内游客6281万人次，旅游收入376.3亿元，较2025年，接待人次、旅游收入分别增长9.1%、9.6%。 这个春节，河南接住了全国四面八方涌来的"泼天流量"，而这些"流量"背后都指向了一个密码——服务全国统一大市场。 中国宏观经济研究院国土开发与地区经济研究所副研究员李长治表示："从河南来看，连续两年聚焦'纵深推进融入服务全国统一大市场'这一主题，释放出 全省坚定把融入服务全国统一大市场作为推动高质量发展的战略性举措来抓的坚定信心，体现了中部经济大省不算地方'小账'、服务国家发展大局的担当。 这一主题表明，河南正试图将区位优势、交通优势转化为配置国内国际资源的枢纽优势、支点优势，以更开放的姿态嵌入全国乃至全球产业链价值链。" 国际"朋友圈"不断扩大 来自许昌的李先生是做"假发"生意的，春节假期也舍不得休息，张口就是英语、德语、西班牙语，他的假发一路销往了非洲、欧洲。 "纵深推进融入服务全国统一大市场 ...

Group 1 - Huang Yanming, the director of Dongfang Securities Research Institute, stated that the next investment focus in A-shares will be on mid-cap blue chips, moving away from the previous high-growth tech and high-dividend strategies [1] - The investment focus will be on three main areas: globally priced cyclical goods such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and global shipping; manufacturing sectors related to technology and national strength enhancement, including military industry, robotics, and new energy; and technology sectors related to large model performance realization [1] Group 2 - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt has surged to a record $348 trillion, increasing by nearly $29 trillion, marking the fastest growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Government debt in countries like the United States and the Eurozone exceeds $10 trillion [2] Group 3 - Several lithium mining companies expect Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports to resume within one month after a temporary suspension [3] - Companies like Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group are preparing to submit supplementary materials for export applications, indicating that the ban is expected to be lifted soon [3] Group 4 - Overseas tech companies are increasingly turning to loans backed by chips, particularly GPUs, to fund their substantial AI investments, with Moody's beginning to rate GPU-backed debt [4] - NAND flash memory prices are rising due to ongoing shortages, prompting major manufacturers like Phison to require advance payments from customers [4] Group 5 - The Chinese smartphone industry is set to experience a comprehensive price increase starting in March 2026, with new models expected to rise by at least 1,000 yuan [5] - Major brands such as OPPO, OnePlus, Vivo, iQOO, Xiaomi, and Honor are likely to raise prices for older models as well, marking a historic trend of simultaneous price hikes across all categories and brands [5] Group 6 - CCD cameras, once common, have seen a resurgence in popularity, with prices for certain models skyrocketing in the second-hand market [6] - Young consumers are driving this trend, primarily for the aesthetic quality of the images produced by these cameras [6] Group 7 - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [7] - The net profit attributable to Baidu was 1.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 5% [7] Group 8 - ByteDance's valuation is reportedly around $550 billion, as investment firm General Atlantic is selling part of its stake [8] - This valuation places ByteDance between Tencent and Alibaba in terms of market capitalization [8] Group 9 - New Hope Liuhe announced a cash investment of 74.87 million yuan to acquire a 70% stake in Luochuan Lingxian Company [9] - The investment will be used for both purchasing shares and increasing capital for the company [9] Group 10 - Aokema plans to acquire a 45% stake in its subsidiary Qingdao Aokema Smart Industry Co., Ltd. for 253 million yuan, aiming for full ownership [10] - The transaction is part of a strategy to consolidate control over its subsidiary [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic development of renewable energy in China during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, focusing on expanding capacity, improving quality, and ensuring reliable alternatives to fossil fuels [1][5]. Group 1: Development Goals and Achievements - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with a total installed capacity of renewable energy exceeding 2.3 billion kilowatts, accounting for 60% of total installed capacity by 2025 [2][3]. - The annual increase in installed capacity for wind and solar energy has reached 260 million kilowatts, with total installed capacity expected to reach 1.84 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, surpassing thermal power for the first time [2][3]. Group 2: Major Projects and Progress - Significant projects include the approval and commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with total conventional hydropower capacity reaching 380 million kilowatts and pumped storage capacity exceeding 66 million kilowatts [3]. - The "Shagehuang" renewable energy base has achieved over 150 million kilowatts of wind and solar installed capacity, contributing to the construction of a "New Energy Great Wall" in arid regions [3]. Group 3: Technological and Industrial Leadership - China leads globally in manufacturing capabilities for large hydropower turbines and has set world records in offshore wind turbine capacity and solar power conversion efficiency [4]. - The number of renewable energy patents accounts for over 40% of the global total, indicating a strong innovation capacity and competitive market environment [4]. Group 4: Policy Support and Framework - A comprehensive policy support system has been established, including the issuance of guidelines for promoting integrated development of renewable energy and optimizing the responsibility system for renewable energy consumption [4][9]. - The government aims to enhance the green certificate market and improve the regulatory framework to support the sustainable development of renewable energy [4][11]. Group 5: Future Directions and Targets - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to achieve a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, with renewable energy accounting for over 50% of total installed capacity [7]. - The plan includes targets for increasing renewable energy's share of total electricity generation to around 30% by 2030 and enhancing non-electric applications of renewable energy [7].