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亚翔集成(603929):重大项目有序衔接,后续增长动能明确
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-25 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][3][23] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to the timing of major project confirmations, but there is clear growth momentum ahead [8][3] - The company has completed revenue recognition for the UMC Singapore project, and the VSMC project is transitioning smoothly [10][3] - The semiconductor industry is shifting supply chains to Southeast Asia due to geopolitical factors, with Singapore emerging as a preferred location for semiconductor companies [3][23] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 32% [8][2] - The company's gross margin improved to 16.9%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased to 9.56%, up 1.2 percentage points [2][12] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was a net inflow of 880 million yuan, with a cash collection ratio of 145% [18][22] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 477 million yuan, 816 million yuan, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.24 yuan, 3.83 yuan, and 3.34 yuan [3][4][23] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 4.57 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.1% compared to 2024 [4][3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend totaling 213 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 133%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [22][3]
亚翔集成(603929):迎接海外业务重估
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-13 13:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing semiconductor capacity migration to Singapore, which is seen as a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainties [1][46]. - The company has secured significant semiconductor engineering orders in Singapore, indicating strong demand and potential for revenue growth [2][30]. - The valuation of the company is significantly lower than its peers, suggesting potential for revaluation as overseas business continues to grow [2][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast has been raised, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 477 million, 816 million, and 713 million yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.24, 3.83, and 3.34 yuan [3][4]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 3,201 million, 5,381 million, 4,570 million, 6,369 million, and 5,871 million yuan from 2023 to 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3%, 68.1%, -15.1%, 39.4%, and -7.8% respectively [4]. - The company's EBIT margin is projected to improve from 10.1% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. Market Trends - Singapore is becoming a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, contributing 10% of global semiconductor output and 20% of semiconductor equipment output, with a manufacturing output value exceeding 1,330 billion SGD (approximately 1,010 billion USD) in 2023 [33][34]. - The Singapore government is actively supporting the semiconductor industry through strategic fiscal policies, including a 180 billion SGD investment from 2021 to 2025 to bolster R&D and infrastructure [34][37]. Company Positioning - The company has a strong competitive edge in the semiconductor cleanroom engineering sector, leveraging its parent company's resources and expertise to expand its overseas market presence [11][12]. - The company has secured major contracts with leading semiconductor manufacturers, including UMC and VSMC, which are expected to significantly contribute to its revenue in the coming years [30][31].