证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 22 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天高位震荡，三大指数涨跌不一 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3771.10 | 0.13% | 4.89 | | | 深证成指 | 11919.76 | -0.06% | -6.98 | | | 沪深 300 | 4288.07 | 0.39% | 16.67 | | | 创业板 | 2595.47 | -0.47% | -12.19 | | | 科创 50 | 1149.15 | 0.09% | 1.00 | | | 北证 50 | 1589.40 | -1.60% | -25.77 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | 申万一级跌幅靠前/ | | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 涨幅靠后 | | ...

Group 1 - The military equipment restructuring concept declined by 1.89%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Hunan Tianyan, Changcheng Military Industry, and Dong'an Power experiencing significant drops [2][3] - Among the military equipment restructuring concept stocks, two stocks saw price increases, with Huachuang Technology and Changan Automobile both rising by 0.39% [2][3] - The military equipment restructuring concept experienced a net outflow of 695 million yuan from main funds, with seven stocks seeing net outflows, and five stocks having outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [3][4] Group 2 - Changcheng Military Industry had the highest net outflow of main funds at 203 million yuan, with a price drop of 4.33% and a turnover rate of 13.61% [3][4] - Hunan Tianyan followed closely with a net outflow of 202 million yuan and a price decline of 5.39% [3][4] - Other notable outflows included Construction Industry with a net outflow of 108 million yuan and a price drop of 1.39% [3][4]

Market Overview - On August 6, a total of 77 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit, with 63 stocks remaining after excluding 14 ST stocks, resulting in an overall limit-up rate of 75.49% [1] - The highest limit-up order volume was recorded by Tongling Nonferrous Metals, with 833,800 hands, followed by China Shipbuilding Industry, Zhong An Keji, and Beiwai Technology, with limit-up orders of 646,600 hands, 288,300 hands, and 230,000 hands respectively [1] Limit-Up Stocks Summary - The top three stocks by limit-up order funds were Beijiajie (5.06 billion), Changcheng Jincheng (3.46 billion), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.36 billion) [1] - Beijiajie closed at 44.97 yuan with a turnover rate of 3.99%, driven by probiotics, the three-child policy concept, oral care, and exports [2] - Changcheng Jincheng closed at 46.98 yuan with a turnover rate of 5.88%, influenced by military equipment restructuring, ammunition and weaponry, and a narrowed mid-term loss [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals closed at 4.03 yuan with a turnover rate of 7.75%, supported by share buybacks, copper foil expansion, and state-owned enterprise reform [2] - China Heavy Industry closed at 5.15 yuan with a turnover rate of 4.24%, boosted by absorption and merger, shipbuilding, and state-owned enterprise reform [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the military equipment restructuring concept has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with a rise of 4.66%, ranking third among concept sectors [1][2] - Within the military equipment restructuring sector, five stocks experienced gains, with Hunan Tianyan and Changcheng Military Industry hitting the daily limit up, while other notable gainers included Construction Industry, Zhongguang Optical, and Dong'an Power, which rose by 7.16%, 3.22%, and 2.40% respectively [1][2] - The sector attracted a net inflow of 0.44 billion yuan from main funds, with Hunan Tianyan leading the inflow at 1.65 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Hunan Tianyan and Changcheng Military Industry had the highest net inflow ratios, at 17.41% and 1.15% respectively [3] - The military equipment restructuring sector's fund inflow rankings show Hunan Tianyan with a daily increase of 10.01% and a turnover rate of 8.92%, while Changcheng Military Industry also increased by 10.00% with a turnover rate of 5.88% [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned above 3600 points, reaching a new closing high for the year at 3617.60, with a gain of 0.96% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11106.96, up 0.59%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.80% to 4103.45 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.6 trillion, an increase of 97.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+1.98%), Banking (+1.59%), and Steel (+1.45%), while the lagging sectors were Pharmaceuticals (+0.12%) and Computers (+0.25%) [2][3] - Concept stocks related to PEEK materials and military restructuring saw significant gains, while pharmaceutical stocks experienced a pullback [3][4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum, supported by active short-term buying sentiment and government policies aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as Finance, Machinery, Public Utilities, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [5] Key Data Points - In July 2025, there were 1.96 million new A-share accounts opened, representing a year-on-year increase of 71% compared to July 2024 [4] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise of the military industry in the A-share market, particularly focusing on the strong performance of Changcheng Military Industry, which has seen its stock price surge due to multiple driving factors and a changing valuation logic in the military sector [6][10][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices slightly rise, with a total trading volume of 16,158 billion, and over 3,900 stocks increasing in value, indicating improved trading sentiment [2]. - The military equipment restructuring concept has gained momentum, with an index increase of 6.12% and a net inflow of 6.655 billion in capital, making it the strongest sector in the market [3]. Group 2: Company Background - Changcheng Military Industry was established in 2000 and is a key player in the domestic military resource integration, focusing on both military and civilian products [8]. - The company has a comprehensive product range, including mortars and individual rockets, and has recently benefited from a change in actual control to the China Ordnance Equipment Group [8][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite being a leader in a niche military sector, Changcheng Military Industry has historically shown poor financial performance, with revenues only in the range of several hundred million and continuous losses over multiple quarters [8][9]. - However, 2025 has seen a turnaround, with significant orders and a 37% increase in pre-receivable accounts, indicating potential for explosive growth in performance [10][11]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The military sector is experiencing a transformation due to increased global military budgets and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened market interest in military stocks [10][17]. - The military industry is now characterized by a more sustainable growth model, with a projected net profit growth of 35% for 2025, contrasting with previous cycles of high valuations and underperformance [17][18]. Group 5: Subsector Growth - Various subsectors within the military industry, such as military electronics and aviation equipment, are witnessing significant growth, driven by increased demand and technological advancements [18][19]. - The global military drone market is expected to grow from $16.5 billion in 2022 to $34.3 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.6%, indicating robust demand for unmanned systems [19][20]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The changing valuation logic in the military sector presents opportunities for investors, as companies like Changcheng Military Industry may replicate the growth trajectory of successful peers [21][22]. - The current environment is marked by a potential for significant stock price increases, but investors are advised to approach with caution due to the risk of speculative bubbles [22].

Market Performance - Chengfei concept stock rose by 1.74%, ranking 10th in the concept sector's increase, with 34 stocks rising overall [1] - Leading gainers in the sector included Huami New Materials, Aileda, and *ST Xinyan, with increases of 12.41%, 6.81%, and 6.15% respectively [1] - The largest declines were seen in Tongda Co., Chuanhuan Technology, and Duopule, with decreases of 1.93%, 1.34%, and 1.08% respectively [1] Concept Sector Overview - The top-performing concept sectors today included: - Armament Reorganization Concept: +6.12% - PEEK Materials: +4.11% - Brain-Computer Interface: +2.72% - Copper Cable High-Speed Connection: +2.60% - Automotive Thermal Management: +1.89% - Chengfei Concept: +1.74% [2] Fund Flow Analysis - Chengfei concept saw a net outflow of 5.97 billion yuan from main funds, with 16 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The top net inflow stock was Shenling Environment, with a net inflow of 56.89 million yuan, followed by Xiling Power and AVIC Chengfei with 37.56 million yuan and 25.01 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for leading stocks included Shenling Environment at 13.01%, *ST Xinyan at 9.50%, and Xiling Power at 3.90% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the Chengfei concept included: - Shenling Environment: +1.03%, turnover rate 4.74%, net inflow 56.89 million yuan, net inflow ratio 13.01% [3] - Xiling Power: +2.75%, turnover rate 18.08%, net inflow 37.56 million yuan, net inflow ratio 3.90% [3] - AVIC Chengfei: +0.43%, turnover rate 2.14%, net inflow 25.01 million yuan, net inflow ratio 2.32% [3]

Group 1 - The military equipment restructuring concept declined by 2.46%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Construction Industry, Dong'an Power, and Hunan Tianyan experiencing significant drops [1][2] - Among the stocks in the military equipment restructuring concept, only two stocks saw price increases, with Changcheng Military Industry and Huqiang Technology rising by 2.94% and 0.56% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The military equipment restructuring concept experienced a net outflow of 1.815 billion yuan in main funds today, with six stocks seeing net outflows, and five stocks having outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Construction Industry, which saw a net outflow of 1.169 billion yuan, followed by Changcheng Military Industry, Changan Automobile, and Dong'an Power with net outflows of 248 million yuan, 167 million yuan, and 123 million yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The military equipment restructuring concept has seen a significant increase, with a rise of 4.08%, making it the second-highest gaining sector on the market as of July 28 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The military equipment restructuring concept sector includes seven stocks that have risen, with notable increases from Construction Industry (6.93%), Hunan Tianyan (6.23%), and Huachuang Technology (3.94%) [1][2]. - The PCB concept led the market with a rise of 4.33%, while the military equipment restructuring concept followed closely at 4.08% [2]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - The military equipment restructuring concept attracted a net inflow of 949 million yuan from main funds, with five stocks receiving significant inflows [2][3]. - Changan Automobile topped the list with a net inflow of 470 million yuan, followed by Construction Industry (434 million yuan) and Hunan Tianyan (86.5 million yuan) [2][3]. Group 3: Capital Flow Ratios - Changan Automobile, Construction Industry, and Hunan Tianyan had the highest net inflow ratios at 17.28%, 10.05%, and 6.91% respectively [3].

Market Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept index declined by 1.76%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of July 28 [1] - Within the sector, companies such as Caesar Travel, Hainan Development, and Hainan Ruize experienced significant declines, while a few stocks like *ST Yedao, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, and *ST Shuangcheng saw increases of 4.49%, 4.34%, and 1.56% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept saw a net outflow of 724 million yuan from major funds today, with 20 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 5 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Caesar Travel, with a net outflow of 188 million yuan, followed by HNA Holding and Hainan Ruize with outflows of 132 million yuan and 75 million yuan respectively [2] Stock Performance - The top stocks with net outflows in the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept included: - Caesar Travel: -7.05% with a turnover rate of 21.89% and a net outflow of 187.57 million yuan - HNA Holding: -3.75% with a turnover rate of 2.54% and a net outflow of 132.31 million yuan - Hainan Ruize: -5.62% with a turnover rate of 13.04% and a net outflow of 75.27 million yuan [3]