证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 8 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指走出四连阳，再创阶段新高 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3639.67 | 0.16% | 5.67 | | | 深证成指 | 11157.94 | -0.18% | -19.84 | | | 沪深 300 | 4114.67 | 0.03% | 1.18 | | | 创业板 | 2342.86 | -0.68% | -16.09 | | | 科创 50 | 1058.21 | -0.15% | -1.56 | | | 北证 50 | 1459.46 | 0.00% | -0.05 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.20% | 医药生物 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3583.31, up 0.66% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11041.56, increasing by 0.46% [2] - The CSI 300 Index ended at 4070.70, rising by 0.39% [2] - The ChiNext Index reached 2334.32, up 0.50% [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1049.41, with a gain of 1.22% [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index finished at 1433.25, increasing by 0.96% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Defense and Military Industry (+3.06%), Machinery Equipment (+1.93%), and Nonferrous Metals (+1.87%) [3] - The sectors with the lowest performance were Retail Trade (-0.46%), Oil and Petrochemicals (-0.36%), and Social Services (-0.21%) [3] - Concept sectors showing strong performance included Military-Civilian Integration (+3.53%) and Aerospace Engine (+3.47%) [3] - Underperforming concept sectors included Dairy Industry (-0.46%) and Animal Vaccines (-0.39%) [3] Future Outlook - The market showed a mixed performance with over 3800 stocks rising, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] - Key sectors to watch include Machinery Equipment, Finance, Public Utilities, and Construction Decoration [5] - The recent tax policy from the State Taxation Administration provides a VAT exemption for individuals purchasing government bonds up to 100,000 yuan monthly until December 31, 2027, which may stimulate market activity [4] - The U.S. Trade Representative confirmed that new tariffs on imports from several countries are largely finalized, which could impact market dynamics [5]

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, which performed well with a rise of 0.58%[6] - The report highlights the performance of sector indices, noting that the banking, comprehensive finance, media, steel, and pharmaceutical industries performed well, with returns of 1.85%, 1.13%, 0.72%, 0.52%, and 0.41%, respectively[7] - The report provides data on market sentiment, including the number of stocks that hit their daily limit up and down, with 41 stocks hitting the limit up and 13 stocks hitting the limit down at the close of trading[12] - The report includes information on the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 18,591 billion yuan as of July 3, 2025, with a financing balance of 18,464 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 127 billion yuan[16] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the innovative drug ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest premium at 0.92%, while the Kechuang New Materials ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest discount at 0.74%[20] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount over the past six months was 1.2 billion yuan, with the transaction amount on July 3, 2025, being 1.8 billion yuan and the average discount rate over the past six months being 5.75%[23] - The report discusses the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures were 3.86%, 5.27%, 15.75%, and 14.40%, respectively, on July 4, 2025[25] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats were Shenzhou Cells, Xice Testing, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, Nanling Technology, Rejing Biology, Desheng Technology, Yihong New Materials, Xuedilong, and Canning Power[27][30][33] - The report includes data on the net inflows and outflows of stocks from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows were Beijing New Pharmaceuticals, Hengbao Shares, Bomin Electronics, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, and Shenzhou Cells[34]

Group 1 - The Artemisinin concept index increased by 0.65%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with four stocks rising, including Haizheng Pharmaceutical which hit the daily limit, and Zhejiang Medicine, Huaren Shuanghe, and Baiyunshan also showing gains of 0.79%, 0.69%, and 0.08% respectively [1] - The leading decliners in the sector included Rundu Co., New Harmony, and Kunming Pharmaceutical, which fell by 1.41%, 1.36%, and 1.17% respectively [1] - The net inflow of main funds into the Artemisinin concept sector was 95 million yuan, with Haizheng Pharmaceutical receiving the highest net inflow of 105 million yuan, followed by Zhejiang Medicine, New Harmony, and Baihua Pharmaceutical with net inflows of 25.71 million yuan, 9.91 million yuan, and 2.14 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - In terms of fund inflow ratios, Haizheng Pharmaceutical, Zhejiang Medicine, and Baihua Pharmaceutical had the highest net inflow rates of 9.03%, 5.48%, and 2.27% respectively [3] - The trading performance of key stocks in the Artemisinin concept included Haizheng Pharmaceutical with a daily increase of 10.02% and a turnover rate of 9.22%, while Zhejiang Medicine rose by 0.79% with a turnover rate of 3.19% [3][4] - Other stocks such as New Harmony and Baihua Pharmaceutical experienced declines of 1.36% and 0.41% respectively, with turnover rates of 1.04% and 3.34% [3][4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound on June 30, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3431.18 points, up 0.20%, with a trading volume of 346.8 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to 10434.48 points, with a trading volume of 567.5 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.93% to 2144.06 points, with a trading volume of 281 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The gaming sector saw significant strength, with stocks like Kaiying Network and Giant Network hitting the daily limit. The military industry continued its strong performance, with nearly 20 stocks, including Great Wall Military Industry, also hitting the daily limit. The semiconductor industry chain rose, with stocks like Haoshanghao and Chengbang shares reaching the daily limit. Conversely, bank stocks continued to adjust, with Qingdao Bank dropping over 2% [1][2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the recent popularity of YU7 and Europe's delay in banning oil vehicles signify a shift towards product capability over product form, accelerating the global electrification process. The upcoming third quarter may see a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification sector and advancements in AI. The resumption of IPOs for tech companies in A-shares could redirect market attention towards the tech sector, potentially continuing the trends seen in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption [3] - According to招商证券, the market may experience an upward breakthrough in July, with aggressive sectors like technology and non-bank financials outperforming. Improved fiscal indices and resilient consumption are expected to enhance total demand growth in the second quarter, leading to potential performance improvements in the upcoming mid-year report period across technology, consumption, and midstream manufacturing sectors [3] Commodity Insights - According to GF Securities, coal prices have been stable and are expected to rise further. The inventory levels across various segments have been declining since June, and seasonal demand is anticipated to increase after July, with limited growth in supply. The domestic spot prices for coking coal have shown slight recovery, driven by production cuts in major producing areas and increased downstream replenishment [4] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June in China was reported at 49.7%, marking a continuous increase for two months. This indicates an improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of four from the previous month [5] ETF Market Dynamics - The scale of the CSI A500 ETF reached approximately 210 billion yuan, with the total number of products increasing to 35. The Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF leads with a scale of 20.256 billion yuan, surpassing the Guotai CSI A500 ETF at 18.649 billion yuan. Other ETFs from firms like Harvest, Huaxia, and Southern also maintain scales above 10 billion yuan, indicating ongoing competition among leading firms in the A500 market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the military equipment restructuring concept has experienced a decline, with a drop of 0.34% as of the market close on June 4, positioning it among the top decliners in the concept sector [1][2] - Within the military equipment restructuring concept, stocks such as Dong'an Power, Chang'an Automobile, and Changcheng Military Industry saw significant declines, while Hunan Tianyan, Huqiang Technology, and Construction Industry were among the few that increased, with respective gains of 0.44%, 0.18%, and 0.15% [1][2] - The military equipment restructuring concept faced a net outflow of 0.43 billion yuan from main funds today, with six stocks experiencing net outflows, led by Chang'an Automobile, which saw a net outflow of 22.58 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top decliners in the military equipment restructuring concept included Chang'an Automobile (-0.24%), Dong'an Power (-2.14%), and Changcheng Military Industry (-0.66%), while Hunan Tianyan was the only stock with a positive change [2] - The trading volume for Chang'an Automobile was 0.52%, and it had the highest net outflow of main funds at 22.58 million yuan, followed by Dong'an Power with a net outflow of 18.22 million yuan [2] - The overall performance of the military equipment restructuring concept contrasts with other sectors, such as the beer concept, which increased by 3.85% [2]

Market Overview - On May 22, major market indices collectively retreated, with a total trading volume of 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The number of stocks that rose was less than 900, while nearly 4,500 stocks declined, with 51 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 18 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] - Industry sectors experienced widespread declines, with beauty care, social services, and basic chemicals dropping over 1.5%, while only banking, media, and household appliances saw gains [1] Stockholder Changes - A total of 365 stocks reported changes in shareholder numbers as of May 20, with 170 stocks seeing a decrease in shareholder accounts compared to May 10 [2] - The stock with the largest decline in shareholder accounts was Shanshui Bide, which saw a 33.18% drop to 4,909 accounts [2] - Ji Qi Co., Ltd. also reported a significant decrease of 15.50% in shareholder accounts, totaling 17,413 [2] Institutional Trading - On May 22, 10 stocks saw net purchases from institutions, with Tianqi Mould and Aerospace Nanhu receiving over 50 million yuan in net buying [3] - The stock San Sheng Guo Jian faced the largest net selling from institutions, amounting to 151 million yuan, following a 100% increase in price over four consecutive days of hitting the daily limit up [3][4] - The institutional trading data indicates a trend of increasing net selling for San Sheng Guo Jian over three consecutive days [3] Northbound Capital Flow - On May 22, seven stocks experienced net buying from northbound funds, with San Sheng Guo Jian leading at 35.03 million yuan [5] - The stock Lianyun Port saw the highest net selling from northbound funds, totaling 51.66 million yuan [5] Important Announcements - Chao Da Equipment was selected for the 2025 Jiangsu Province Advanced Intelligent Factory list for its smart collaborative manufacturing project [6] - Bo Rui Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for Iopamidol injection from the National Medical Products Administration [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao's shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 25 to 50 million yuan without a set price range [6] - Xinhua Insurance signed a contract to establish a private equity fund with a total scale of 20 billion yuan, contributing 10 billion yuan [6] - Zhongnan Media's subsidiary signed a government procurement contract worth 1.009 billion yuan, positively impacting the company's operations in 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao aims to prioritize the development of next-generation information technology and artificial intelligence as leading industries, while also advancing future industries such as terahertz and marine electronic information [1] Group 1: Industry Development Focus - The "Digital Qingdao 2025 Action Plan" emphasizes the construction of a tiered cultivation track in the digital industry, focusing on a "10+1" innovative industrial layout [1] - Key industries targeted for breakthrough development include intelligent connected new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy [1] - The plan aims to enhance the quality of development in advantageous industries such as smart home appliances [1] Group 2: Support for Emerging Sectors - The government supports the establishment of provincial digital economy industrial clusters in high-end software and artificial intelligence [1] - There is a goal to cultivate no less than 300 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises in the digital economy sector [1] - The plan encourages the improvement of research and development capabilities in basic and industrial software, aiming for recognition among the national software top 100 [1]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3352.00, up 0.28%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93% to 10197.66 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.29 trillion, a decrease of 174.9 billion from the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 2.60%), Defense and Military (up 2.57%), and Electric Equipment (up 1.62%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Beauty Care and Non-ferrous Metals saw declines, with Beauty Care down 0.96% [2] - Notable concept indices included Chengfei Concept and Large Aircraft, which performed well, while sectors like Soybeans and PEEK Materials lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to see more incremental policies, particularly in fiscal policy, to enhance economic resilience and stability [5] - Key areas of investment include transportation, energy, water conservancy, and new infrastructure, with a projected total investment of approximately 3 trillion [4] - The recent financial policy announcements aim to release market liquidity and are expected to positively impact large-cap stocks [5]

Group 1 - The fruit index concept rose by 1.62%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 18 stocks increasing in value, led by Xinyi Technology, Lante Optics, and Lens Technology, which rose by 6.73%, 4.82%, and 4.41% respectively [1][2] - The fruit index concept saw a net inflow of 773 million yuan from main funds, with 14 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow, with Lens Technology leading at 247 million yuan [2][3] - The top net inflow ratios were recorded for Lens Technology, Xinyi Technology, and Lingyi Technology, with net inflow rates of 15.12%, 12.74%, and 9.75% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The fruit index concept's performance was contrasted with other sectors, such as the 6G concept which rose by 3.18%, while the South Korea-China Free Trade Zone fell by 3.88% [2] - The trading volume and turnover rates for leading stocks in the fruit index concept were highlighted, with Lens Technology showing a turnover rate of 1.68% and a trading volume of 246.58 million yuan [3][4] - The overall market sentiment reflected a mixed performance across various sectors, with some experiencing significant declines, such as the dairy sector which fell by 3.69% [2]