证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 深成指、创业板指双双低开高走 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3864.18 | -0.15% | -5.84 | | | 深证成指 | 12907.83 | 1.02% | 130.52 | | | 沪深 300 | 4517.63 | 0.61% | 27.22 | | | 创业板 | 3044.69 | 2.14% | 63.76 | | | 科创 50 | 1315.04 | 0.99% | 12.87 | | | 北证 50 | 1391.00 | -0.42% | -5.84 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.64% | 国防军 ...

一、强势个股 截至11月26日收盘，上证综指下跌0.15%，收于3864.18点，深证成指上涨1.02%，收于12907.83点，创 业板指上涨2.14%，收于3044.69点。今日沪深两市A股共计76只涨停，综合当前连板数以及当日龙虎榜 数据，其中较为强势的前三只个股分别为：特发信息（000070）、欢瑞世纪（000892）与雷科防务 （002413）。今日强势个股前10位具体数据见下表： | 代码 | 隋称 | 造板数 | 换手率(%) | 成交额 | 龙虎持净买入额 | 最高价是否创一年来新高 | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000070 | 特发信息 | 4连板 | 25.84 | 31.22亿元 | 1901.43万元 | 是 | 通信 | | 000892 | 欢鸡世纪 | 4连板 | 37.38 | 24.44亿元 | -248.64万元 | 是 | 传媒 | | 002413 | 富科防务 | 3连板 | 30.8 | 30.63亿元 | -5448.86万元 | 是 | 国防军工 | | 600105 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals amid weakening U.S. employment data and manageable inflation have significantly reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a global stock market adjustment [1] Market Reaction - Major indices in the Asia-Pacific region, including Nikkei 225, Seoul Composite Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Hang Seng Index, experienced collective adjustments [1] - Concerns over valuation bubbles in the technology sector have emerged, while relatively undervalued sectors such as consumer goods and finance show resilience [1] Sector Performance - Concepts like winter tourism and duty-free shops have become active, with food and beverage ETFs (515170) and tourism ETFs (562510) briefly turning positive during trading [1] - According to Zhongyin International, the previously leading technology sector has entered a consolidation phase, and with the end of Q3 earnings disclosures, the market is entering an earnings vacuum period [1] Consumer Sector Outlook - The trend of CPI recovery is beginning to show, with a high correlation between essential consumer market performance and CPI year-on-year [1] - The profitability-valuation ratio comparison indicates a clear advantage for consumer styles, suggesting that under multiple catalysts, the consumer sector may experience a rotation and rebound opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened lower on November 13, with all three major indices declining slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid sector-specific movements [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% - The ChiNext Index also decreased by 0.09% [1] Sector Movements - The photovoltaic glass, duty-free shops, and Hainan free trade zone concepts experienced significant declines - Conversely, lithium battery electrolyte stocks showed strong upward momentum [1] Commodity Trends - International gold prices surged, leading to a strengthening in the precious metals sector - The oil and gas sector underwent a correction [1]

Market Performance - The major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4018.60, up by 0.53% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% to 3178.83 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.17 trillion, an increase of 175.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (3.60%), Food and Beverage (3.22%), and Retail (2.69%) [3] - Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Electric Equipment (-1.09%), Machinery Equipment (-0.71%), and Electronics (-0.51%) [3] - Concept indices showed strong performance in Dairy (4.36%), Cultivated Diamonds (3.46%), and Liquor Concepts (3.01%), while the weakest were in the Fruit Index (-1.56%) and High-Speed Copper Cable Connection (-1.50%) [3] Market Outlook - The market is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, supported by proactive policies, aiming for an annual economic growth target of around 5% [6] - Positive policy signals are anticipated to reshape the investment themes and valuation systems in the capital market, boosting market risk appetite [6] - Defensive sectors such as Finance and Coal, along with low-positioned sectors like Food and Beverage, are recommended for attention [6] Economic Indicators - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month [5] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]

Strong Individual Stocks - As of November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53% to 4018.6 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.18% to 13427.61 points. The ChiNext Index, however, fell by 0.92% to 3178.83 points. A total of 92 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up [1] - The top three strong stocks based on current consecutive limit-up counts and daily trading data are Yingxin Development (000620), Chongqing Construction (600939), and Qingshuiyuan (300437) [1] - Detailed data for the top 10 strong stocks includes consecutive limit-up days and turnover rates, with Yingxin Development showing 6 days and 4 limit-ups at a turnover rate of 13.75% [1] Strong Concept Sectors - The top three concept sectors with the highest gains in the A-share market are Dairy, Cultivated Diamonds, and Baijiu concepts [2] - The Dairy sector increased by 4.36%, Cultivated Diamonds by 3.46%, and Baijiu concepts by 3.01% [3] - Other notable sectors include Tianjin Free Trade Zone (2.97%), Duty-Free Shops (2.76%), and Pre-made Dishes (2.65%) [3]

Group 1 - The Tonghuashun Fruit Index concept fell by 1.56%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with leading decliners including XW Communication, Lante Optics, and Lens Technology [1] - The top gainers in the same day included Wentai Technology, Saiteng Co., and Dongshan Precision, with respective increases of 3.02%, 1.53%, and 1.36% [1] - The dairy industry led the gainers with a rise of 4.36%, while the Tonghuashun Fruit Index was the largest decliner [1] Group 2 - The Tonghuashun Fruit Index concept experienced a net outflow of 4.158 billion yuan, with 15 stocks seeing net outflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in outflows [1] - Industrial Fulian had the highest net outflow of 2.247 billion yuan, followed by Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, and XW Communication with net outflows of 588 million yuan, 571 million yuan, and 392 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included BOE Technology Group, Wentai Technology, and Saiteng Co., with net inflows of 444 million yuan, 113 million yuan, and 6.247 million yuan respectively [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a strong rebound driven by technology stocks and favorable policies, with major indices closing with long lower shadow candlesticks, indicating strong buying support at lower levels and a short-term technical recovery [4]. Market Performance - The market exhibited a broad-based rally, with a good profit-making effect, particularly in the energy storage and new energy sectors, leading to a surge in stocks related to electric power and grid equipment, as well as significant gains in photovoltaic and lithium battery concepts [5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets was 8 trillion, down 2.36%, indicating a continuous decrease in trading volume and a cautious stance from investors, with a lack of willingness to chase high prices [6]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of institutional funds while retail investors showed a net inflow, reflecting a cautious optimism among institutions focusing on sectors with clear policy support and performance certainty, such as electric grid equipment and regional themes [7]. - Retail investor sentiment has improved, with increased participation in speculative trading, particularly in electric grid equipment and Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks, as the market's strong rebound after a deep bottom has boosted retail investors' expectations for further gains [8]. Index and Positioning - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, reflecting the overall market performance [9]. - As of November 5, 27.76% of investors increased their positions, while 17.17% reduced their holdings, indicating a general inclination towards adding to positions [11].

Market Performance - The three major indices of A-shares experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.03% [3][4]. Sector Performance - The energy storage and new energy sectors led the market, with significant gains in electric power and grid-related stocks, as well as explosive growth in photovoltaic and lithium battery concept stocks [4][5]. - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free shop indices also showed strong performance [4]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks rising [7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electric grid equipment, coal, and power sectors, while there were outflows from the computer, semiconductor, and communication equipment sectors [10]. - Notable net inflows included 1.504 billion yuan into Sunshine Power, 1.027 billion yuan into TBEA, and 1.027 billion yuan into CATL [11]. - Conversely, significant net outflows were recorded for Seres, Fulongma, and BYD, with outflows of 1.230 billion yuan, 1.169 billion yuan, and 757 million yuan respectively [12]. Institutional Insights - Zhongyuan Securities predicts that the A-share market is likely to experience a sideways consolidation pattern in November, preparing for a potential index-level rally by year-end [13]. - Hualong Securities notes that short-term market fluctuations do not alter the stable outlook, supported by improving fundamentals and proactive policy measures encouraging long-term capital inflows [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound on November 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.03% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Sector Performance - The energy storage and new energy sectors led the market, with significant gains in the electric power and grid equipment sectors, as well as explosive growth in photovoltaic and lithium battery stocks [2] - The grid equipment sector saw a collective surge, with 15 stocks hitting the daily limit up, including companies like Double Star Electric and Zhongzhi Technology [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free shop indices also performed strongly, with multiple stocks such as Haima Automobile and Hainan Strait Holdings reaching their daily limit up [2] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as grid equipment, coal, and electricity, while there was a net outflow from sectors like computers, semiconductors, and communication equipment [4] - Notable individual stocks with net inflows included Sunshine Power and TBEA, with inflows of 1.504 billion yuan and 1.027 billion yuan respectively [4] - Conversely, stocks like Silis and BYD experienced significant net outflows, with 1.230 billion yuan and 757 million yuan respectively [4] Institutional Insights - Zhongyuan Securities predicts that the A-share market is likely to exhibit a sideways consolidation pattern in November, preparing for a potential index-level rally by year-end [5] - Hualong Securities maintains a stable outlook for the market, citing improving fundamentals and policy support that encourages long-term capital to enter the market [5]