期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：2026 年首周，国内动力煤价格维持小幅上行走势。进入新一年度，此前因完成年度目 标而停产的煤矿陆续复产，国内动力煤产量虽边际恢复，但改善幅度有限，叠加春节临近，煤矿 将迎来停产休假，动力煤供应阶段性收缩预期增强。此外，近期国内气温下降，沿海城市用煤需 求加速改善，是支撑港口煤炭市场的重要因素。库存方面，iFind 数据显示，截至 1 月 8 日，环 渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2671.3 万吨，周环比去库 161.4 万吨，较去年同期库存偏高 178.1 万吨。 整体来看，动力煤供需格 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 电煤需求好转，港口煤价小幅上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 核心逻辑：2026 年首周，国内动力煤价格维持小幅上行走势。进入新一年度，此前因完成年度目 标而停产的煤矿陆续复产，国内动力煤产量虽边际恢复，但改善幅度有限，叠加春节临近，煤矿 将迎来停产休假，动力煤供应阶段性收缩预期增强。此外， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The post - holiday price of thermal coal may maintain range - bound trading as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - The impact of anti - involution capacity verification on supply was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a steady increase in overall thermal coal supply [4] Demand - During the National Day holiday, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4] Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal may maintain a range - bound trading after the holiday, as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Anti - involution capacity verification's impact was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a stable and increasing overall supply of thermal coal [4]. Demand - During the National Day, temperatures in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, supporting residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4]. Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant weekly increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of thermal coal is improving while the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the holiday, the thermal coal price may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and there are obstacles to the upward movement of thermal coal [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: The impact of anti - involution capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in the main producing areas gradually resumed, and the import coal had good cost - performance, so the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily [4]. - **Demand**: During the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, the demand for thermal power showed seasonal weakness [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the supply - demand pattern of domestic thermal coal weakened, and the ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain relatively loose, and prices will show a weakly fluctuating trend. The market pessimism at the mine - mouth has intensified, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm from coal plants and terminal traders, leading to poor sales and high inventory pressure at most coal mines. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, and the terminal demand is weak with unchanged daily consumption, resulting in mainly small - order purchases and strong wait - and - see sentiment among large players. Therefore, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and price drivers are limited. It is necessary to continuously monitor the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][16] - The recommended operation is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2507 had no transactions. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton. There were 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5] Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotes - In Erdos Dalate Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 4000 - kcal thermal coal is 263 yuan/ton, and that of 4500 - kcal thermal coal is 278 yuan/ton. In Erdos Ejin Horo Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal is 431 yuan/ton. In Erdos Jungar Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 6000 - kcal thermal coal is 532 yuan/ton [5] Port Inventory - As of June 7, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 645.00 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it is 565.00 million tons; at Jingtang Port, it is 826.80 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port, it is 47.40 million tons [7] Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotes - At Guangzhou Port, the warehouse - pick - up tax - included price of 5500 - kcal Australian coal is 700 yuan/ton, that of 5000 - kcal Australian coal is 615 yuan/ton, that of 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 444 yuan/ton, that of 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal is 486 yuan/ton, and that of 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 596 yuan/ton. At Fangchenggang, the warehouse - pick - up tax - included price of 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 448 yuan/ton, and that of 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal is 581 yuan/ton [7] International Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) is 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) is 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) is 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) is 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) is 472.00 [11][13] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) is 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) is 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) is 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) is 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) is 472.00 [11][13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that thermal coal will continue to trade at low levels in the near term due to the high - supply and high - inventory situation, with a subdued atmosphere in the industry chain and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillating". In the medium - term, it is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag on coal prices from non - power industries to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Domestic coal mines in major production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, and production remains high. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and low residential electricity consumption drags down coal consumption in power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces is at a low level for the year. With strong supply and weak demand, market bearish sentiment spreads, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and thermal coal accumulates at ports [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The power coal market is expected to remain at a low level in the near future due to the continuation of high supply and high inventory, along with a sluggish industrial chain atmosphere and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4] Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and mid - term view of power coal spot is "oscillation". The current supply - demand pattern of power coal has little change, with high production and stable imports [4] Driving Factors - Positive factor: The China - US trade friction has eased, which will delay the dragging effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. The terminal products involved in the China - US trade mainly include electromechanical products, textiles and clothing, toys, plastic products, etc., which are related to non - power terminal industries such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and chemicals [4] - Negative factors: The coal safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, and power coal production remains at a high level. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and the daily coal consumption of power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces is at a low level as of May 8. The market bearish sentiment spreads, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of power coal at ports [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to remain in a weak operation due to the high - supply and high - inventory pattern [1][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are "oscillation", and the core logic is that the North Port inventory has reached a new high, and thermal coal maintains a weak operation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The coal production in domestic main producing areas remains high, and May is the off - season for thermal coal, with low power consumption by residents and power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces was at a relatively low level. With strong supply and weak demand, the market is bearish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of thermal coal at ports. Therefore, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and thermal coal is expected to run at a low level in the near future [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2506 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5]. - **Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotations**: In Ordos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 285 yuan/ton for 4000 - kcal thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 300 yuan/ton for 4500 - kcal in Dalate Banner, 450 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal in Ejin Horo Banner, and 542 yuan/ton for 6000 - kcal in Jungar Banner [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.5 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 0 tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 451,000 tons [7]. - **Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotations**: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 734 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal Australian coal, 649 yuan/ton for 5000 - kcal Australian coal, 480 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal, 525 yuan/ton for 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal, and 623 yuan/ton for 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 485 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal and 607 yuan/ton for 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal [7]. - **International Coal Prices and Freight Rates**: As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index CBCFI was 640.35, the Panama - type Freight Index (BPI) was 1353.00, the Cape - type Freight Index (BCI) was 1709.00, the Super Handysize Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [11][13]. b) Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [19].