二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 8 日 动力煤：需求有待释放，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡格局。 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 上周市场回顾： 空头：1、5 月 29 日-6 月 4 日"三西"地区煤矿产能利用率较上期下降 0.4 个百分点。本期正值五月末， 产地少部分煤矿完成生产任务减产停产，六月份次部分煤矿已经恢复正常生产，监测点煤矿产能利用率小 幅下降，目前大部分煤矿生产正常，供应平稳。2、产地煤矿库存较上期上升 0.11 个百分点，库存处于高位 水平。化工、冶金等终端刚需采购，煤厂、贸易商观望较多，大部分煤矿及时调整价格，目前销售正常，库 存整体变化不大（汾渭信息）。 综合来看，动力煤供需偏宽松的格局仍将延续，价格仍以震荡偏弱态势呈现。坑口方面，市场悲观情绪加剧， 煤厂及站台贸易商采购积极性下降，长途拉煤车相应减少，多数煤矿销售不畅，库存压力较大。而至于港口 方面，一方面库存压力同样较大，受疏港消息影响情绪较为悲观，另一方面终端需求疲软，日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，动力煤供需格局变化不大，产量维持高位，进口平稳运行。相对利好是，中美 在瑞士达成重要共识，在 90 天内大幅降低关税税率，本轮贸易战迎来阶段性降温。中国对美国出 口比重较高的有机电产品、纺织品及服装、玩具、塑料制品等。这些终端产成品涉及到有色、钢 铁、化工等动力煤非电终端行业。中美贸易摩擦的缓和，将在一定程度延缓非电行业对煤价的拖 累效应。不过，目前动力煤供需矛盾仍较为突出，仅靠非电端的些许利好难以扭转。一方面，国 内主产区煤矿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，动力煤供需格局变化不大，产量维持高位，进口平稳运行。相对利好是，中美 在瑞士达成重要共识，在 90 天内大幅降低关税税率，本轮贸易战迎来阶段性降温。中国对美国出 口比重较高的有机电产品、纺织品及服装、玩具、塑料制品等。这些终端产成品涉及到有色、钢 铁、化工等动力煤非电终端行业。中美贸易摩擦的缓和，将在一定程度延缓非电行业对煤价的拖 累效应。不过，目前动力煤供需矛盾仍较为突出，仅靠非电端的些许利好难以扭转。一方面，国 内主产区煤矿 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to remain in a weak operation due to the high - supply and high - inventory pattern [1][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are "oscillation", and the core logic is that the North Port inventory has reached a new high, and thermal coal maintains a weak operation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The coal production in domestic main producing areas remains high, and May is the off - season for thermal coal, with low power consumption by residents and power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces was at a relatively low level. With strong supply and weak demand, the market is bearish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of thermal coal at ports. Therefore, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and thermal coal is expected to run at a low level in the near future [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2506 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5]. - **Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotations**: In Ordos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 285 yuan/ton for 4000 - kcal thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 300 yuan/ton for 4500 - kcal in Dalate Banner, 450 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal in Ejin Horo Banner, and 542 yuan/ton for 6000 - kcal in Jungar Banner [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.5 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 0 tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 451,000 tons [7]. - **Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotations**: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 734 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal Australian coal, 649 yuan/ton for 5000 - kcal Australian coal, 480 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal, 525 yuan/ton for 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal, and 623 yuan/ton for 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 485 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal and 607 yuan/ton for 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal [7]. - **International Coal Prices and Freight Rates**: As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index CBCFI was 640.35, the Panama - type Freight Index (BPI) was 1353.00, the Cape - type Freight Index (BCI) was 1709.00, the Super Handysize Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [11][13]. b) Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. Although there is a possibility of the price stabilizing due to the inventory replenishment during the peak summer season, the current supply-demand pattern remains loose with accumulating bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [4]. - **Core Logic**: In April, the decline of domestic coal prices slowed down, but the market sentiment remained bearish. The supply - side pressure persisted as domestic coal production increased despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. The intensification of Sino - US trade frictions from late March to April raised concerns about non - power terminal exports of thermal coal. The rapid growth of new wind and photovoltaic units and the seasonal strengthening of four types of clean energy in May and June will keep the demand for thermal coal at a low level in May. The current high inventory at northern ports and sufficient coal availability days for power plants will limit the price rebound during the inventory replenishment period [4].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：4 月份，国内煤价跌势有所放缓，但市场氛围并未扭转，偏空因素仍在积聚。首先，虽 然煤炭进口量同比下滑，但国内产量进一步增长，动力煤供应端压力并未缓和。其次，在内需表 现本就一般的背景下，3 月底至 4 月期间，中美贸易摩擦加剧，引发动力煤非电终端出口担忧。 另外，我国风电和光伏新增机组维持高速增长，且 5、6 月份四种清洁能源总量将开始季节性走 强，在 5 月气温尚未大幅走高的窗口期，电煤需求仍将维持较低水平。最后，近期动力煤价格的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 4 月 动力煤月报 2025 年 4 月，国内动力煤价格小幅下跌，据 iFind 统计，截至 4 月 22 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 662 元/吨，月环比下跌 11 元，较去年同期偏 低 157 元。 供应端，2025 年 3 月，全国原煤产量 4.4 亿吨，同比增 9.6%，刷新 历史最高单月产量；进口煤及褐煤 3873 万吨，同比减 6.4%；总供应 4.79 亿吨，同比增 8.8%，动力煤仍面临较强的供应端压力。分省份产量看，3 月份原煤增产主要集中在山西和新疆，同比增幅分别录得 19.1%和 20.6%， 另外陕西原煤产量同比增 6.7%，可见煤价下跌暂未对煤矿生产造成影响。 进入 4 月以后，主产区煤炭产量仍有小幅提升，进口量预计与 3 月接近， 动力煤供应仍处高位。 需求端，2025 年 3 月，全社会用电量 8282 亿千瓦时，同比增 4.8%。 4、5 月份是传统电煤淡季，截至 4 月 17 日，沿海 8 省电煤日耗 177.4 万 吨，周环比降 8.3 万吨；内陆 17 省电煤日耗 305.4 万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 核心逻辑：4 月份，国内煤价跌势有所放缓，但市场氛围并未扭转，偏空因素仍在积聚。首先，虽 然煤炭进口量同比下滑，但国内产量进一步增长，动力煤供应端压力并未缓和。其次，在内需表 现本就一般的背景下，3 月底至 4 月期间，中美贸易摩擦加剧，引发动力煤非电终端出口担忧。 另外，我国风电和光伏新增机组维持高速增长，且 5、6 月份四种清洁能源总量将开始季节性走 强，在 5 月气温尚未大幅走高的窗口期，电煤需求仍将维持较低水平。最后，近期动力煤价格的 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 27 日 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡格局。 空头：1、4 月 17 日-4 月 23 日"三西"地区煤矿产能利用率较上期上升 0.78 个百分点。产地少数因前期 搬家倒面停产的煤矿恢复生产，监测点煤矿产能利用率小幅上升。坑口大部分煤矿生产正常，整体供应较充 足。2、主产地煤矿库存较上期上升 0.83 个百分点，库存处于中位水平。化工等终端刚需较稳定，大部分煤 矿出货良好，淡季行情下部分电厂机组检修，站台贸易商观望也增多，部分煤矿出货缓慢，库存少量增加。 综合来看，动力煤供需偏宽松的格局仍将延续，价格或以底部震荡呈现。首先，产地方面部分中低卡性价比 高的煤矿出货尚可，价格较为坚挺。但从终端角度来看，随着电厂淡季临近，需求预期走弱，而非电行业补 库需求尚未明显释放，对价格的上涨动力形成制约，价格反弹难以持续，淡季行情下预计仍以偏弱运行为 主，需持续关注非电行业需求复苏情况及港口库存去化进度。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 ...