投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 氛围小幅改善，港口煤价震荡上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：动力煤供应端是后市博弈的主要焦点，除了国内"反内卷政策"的潜在利多风险外， 印尼煤炭出口额度同样是重要不确定因素，在供应端无显著变化的背景下，我国动力煤供需格局 或依然宽松，煤价或维持低位运行。 （仅供参 ...

宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 宽松预期尚未扭转，港口煤价低 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：动力煤供应端是后市博弈的主要焦点，除了国内"反内卷政策"的潜在利多风险外， 印尼煤炭出口额度同样是重要不确定因素，在供应端无显著变化的背景下，我国动力煤供需格局 或依然宽松，煤价或维持低位运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业仍有补库需求等因 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expected shutdown of coal mines during the Spring Festival provides supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after a decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production to meet annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. Recently, the drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8th, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.614 million tons, and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The demand has a phased decline, and the port coal price has stabilized again. The overall supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the price has stopped falling and risen slightly [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation" [1] 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, the domestic thermal coal price maintained a slight upward trend. After the new year, the coal mines that had stopped production to meet the annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. The recent drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 8, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival has provided supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after stopping the decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - Variety: Thermal coal spot - Intraday view: Not provided - Medium - term view: Oscillation - Core logic: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production due to achieving annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal output was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply increased. Recently, the decline in domestic temperatures accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which was an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The post - holiday price of thermal coal may maintain range - bound trading as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - The impact of anti - involution capacity verification on supply was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a steady increase in overall thermal coal supply [4] Demand - During the National Day holiday, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4] Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal may maintain a range - bound trading after the holiday, as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Anti - involution capacity verification's impact was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a stable and increasing overall supply of thermal coal [4]. Demand - During the National Day, temperatures in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, supporting residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4]. Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant weekly increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of thermal coal is improving while the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the holiday, the thermal coal price may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and there are obstacles to the upward movement of thermal coal [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: The impact of anti - involution capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in the main producing areas gradually resumed, and the import coal had good cost - performance, so the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily [4]. - **Demand**: During the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, the demand for thermal power showed seasonal weakness [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the supply - demand pattern of domestic thermal coal weakened, and the ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].