Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The atmosphere has slightly improved, and port coal prices are oscillating upward. The supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. In addition to the potential positive risks of the domestic "anti - involution policy", the coal export quota in Indonesia is also an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal in China may remain loose, and coal prices may remain at a low level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the atmosphere has slightly improved, and port coal prices are oscillating upward [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. There are potential positive risks from the domestic "anti - involution policy" and the coal export quota in Indonesia is an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal in China may remain loose, and coal prices may remain at a low level [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. Besides the potential positive risks of the domestic "anti - involution policy", the coal export quota of Indonesia is also an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may maintain low - level operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Fluctuation Calculation and Classification - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [3][4] 3.3 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. The domestic "anti - involution policy" and Indonesia's coal export quota are important factors. Without significant supply - side changes, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may stay at a low level [1][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, the inventory at northern ports is continuously decreasing, and the downstream end - users still have restocking needs, which support the coal price to rebound slightly. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that the coal price will run in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector (Thermal Coal Spot) - **Intraday and Mid - term View**: The reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that during the critical period of peak winter, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly. With about two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the restocking demand of downstream power plants and other end - users still exists, which supports the coal price to stabilize and rebound slightly. But in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only increased by 11 yuan/ton throughout the month, reflecting the weakness of the current coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expected shutdown of coal mines during the Spring Festival provides supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after a decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production to meet annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. Recently, the drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8th, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.614 million tons, and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The demand has a phased decline, and the port coal price has stabilized again. The overall supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the price has stopped falling and risen slightly [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation" [1] 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, the domestic thermal coal price maintained a slight upward trend. After the new year, the coal mines that had stopped production to meet the annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. The recent drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 8, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival has provided supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after stopping the decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - Variety: Thermal coal spot - Intraday view: Not provided - Medium - term view: Oscillation - Core logic: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production due to achieving annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal output was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply increased. Recently, the decline in domestic temperatures accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which was an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The post - holiday price of thermal coal may maintain range - bound trading as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - The impact of anti - involution capacity verification on supply was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a steady increase in overall thermal coal supply [4] Demand - During the National Day holiday, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4] Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal may maintain a range - bound trading after the holiday, as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Anti - involution capacity verification's impact was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a stable and increasing overall supply of thermal coal [4]. Demand - During the National Day, temperatures in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, supporting residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4]. Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant weekly increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of thermal coal is improving while the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the holiday, the thermal coal price may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and there are obstacles to the upward movement of thermal coal [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: The impact of anti - involution capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in the main producing areas gradually resumed, and the import coal had good cost - performance, so the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily [4]. - **Demand**: During the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, the demand for thermal power showed seasonal weakness [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the supply - demand pattern of domestic thermal coal weakened, and the ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].