期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 终端采购支撑，港口煤价高位震 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：11 月中旬，受寒潮冲击，国内气温骤降，沿海局部地区累计降温幅度达 20℃，旺季到 来 12 月电煤日耗将逐渐走强。库存方面，iFind 数据显示，截至 11 月 20 日，环渤海 9 港动力煤 总库存 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". Coastal city temperature drops and port coal prices are temporarily stable. Due to factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly running recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, cooling market sentiment. It is expected that thermal coal will start high - level oscillation in the short term [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 56,800 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4] Market Driving Factors - Multiple factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. The mention of energy supply guarantee by the National Development and Reform Commission cooled market sentiment [4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：iFind 数据显示，截至 11 月 13 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2409.2 万吨，周环比累库 56.8 万吨，但较去年同期库存依然大幅偏低 324.4 万吨。此前，由于迎峰度冬临近，且北港存煤 偏低，加之年底煤炭供应存收缩预期，多因素驱动近期煤价强势运行，不过今日国家发改委再提 能源保供，市场情绪迎来降温，预计短期内动力煤将开始高位震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，港口煤价暂稳运 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The daily view of thermal coal spot is to maintain a mid - term view of "oscillation". It is expected that thermal coal will start to operate in a high - level oscillation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - As of November 13th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4092 billion tons, with a weekly cumulative inventory of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 324,400 tons [4] - Due to the approaching peak winter, low coal inventory in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, which cooled the market sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for the day and medium - term of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a short - term stabilization. As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. Supply contraction expectations and downstream replenishment expectations support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, but the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In terms of imports, in October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4] Demand - side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is to oscillate. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Conditions - As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [5] Supply Side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of power coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [5] Demand Side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The domestic thermal coal price has strengthened again after a brief stabilization. Supply contraction expectations and downstream restocking expectations support the coal price to run strongly. The subsequent focus is on the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Information**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period ending October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons per day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [4]. - **Overall Situation**: The supply contraction expectation and downstream restocking expectation support the coal price to run strongly [4].

期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期，国内动力煤价格短暂企稳后再次走强，截至 11 月 6 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 799 元/吨，周环比上涨 31 元。从供应端来看，11 月首周，主产区煤矿生产整体稳定，供应较去 年同期依然偏低，11 月安全生产巡察组入驻后，动力煤供应恢复预计仍有一定压力。进口方面， 海关总署最新数据显示，10 月我国进口煤及褐煤 4173.7 万吨，较上月减少 426.6 万吨。需求方 面，截至 10 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The optimistic sentiment continues, and port coal prices are operating strongly. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Market Conditions**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a brief stabilization [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192000 tons per day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price is stabilizing, and the coastal terminal restocking demand is driving the port thermal coal market to operate strongly. The market is expected to continue to be influenced by the safety inspection situation in the main production areas [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The domestic thermal coal price is stabilizing, but the optimistic atmosphere in the coal market has not been reversed. There are still many coal mines raising prices, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is good [5]. 3.2 Supply Side - Although the import volume of foreign trade coal is stable, more coal mines will stop production after completing their production targets at the end of the month. In addition, the Central Safety Production Inspection and Inspection Team will enter the main production areas in November, leading to market expectations of supply contraction at the end of the year, which supports the coal price to operate strongly [5]. 3.3 Demand Side - Recently, many places in the north have continued to cool down and have entered the winter mode ahead of schedule. The demand in southern coastal cities has declined in the off - season after the cooling in October. However, the coal inventory level of coastal power plants is low, and there is still restocking demand, which will support the coal market atmosphere [5]. 3.4 Inventory - As of October 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year. The potential restocking demand of downstream users supports the port coal price [5].