投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 氛围小幅改善，港口煤价震荡上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：动力煤供应端是后市博弈的主要焦点，除了国内"反内卷政策"的潜在利多风险外， 印尼煤炭出口额度同样是重要不确定因素，在供应端无显著变化的背景下，我国动力煤供需格局 或依然宽松，煤价或维持低位运行。 （仅供参 ...

宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 宽松预期尚未扭转，港口煤价低 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：动力煤供应端是后市博弈的主要焦点，除了国内"反内卷政策"的潜在利多风险外， 印尼煤炭出口额度同样是重要不确定因素，在供应端无显著变化的背景下，我国动力煤供需格局 或依然宽松，煤价或维持低位运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price stabilized and slightly increased this week. As of February 5th, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The current situation is in the critical period of peak - winter demand. High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, the thermal coal production is running smoothly, and the market still has a bearish long - term outlook, which suppresses coal prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Market Situation - The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton as of February 5th, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Positive factor: High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country during the peak - winter demand period drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain [4]. - Negative factor: Stable thermal coal production and the market's bearish long - term outlook on the fundamentals suppress coal prices [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is "oscillation" [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the short - term, medium - term, and intraday of thermal coal spot, the view is "oscillation". The core logic is that during the peak winter period, high daily coal consumption in national power plants drives inventory reduction in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, stable coal production and a bearish long - term market outlook suppress coal prices at a low level. [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the peak demand season supports a slight increase in port coal prices. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". As of February 5, 2026, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. High daily coal consumption in power plants drives inventory reduction, but stable production and a bearish long - term outlook keep coal prices low. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, and factors such as continuous inventory reduction at northern ports and the replenishment demand of downstream terminal enterprises support a small rebound in coal prices. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that coal prices will operate in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Varieties Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view is "oscillation" - **Core Logic**: In the critical period of peak winter, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly. With two weeks until the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the replenishment demand of downstream power plants and other terminal enterprises still exists, supporting a small rebound in coal prices. However, in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only increased by 11 yuan/ton throughout the month, reflecting the weakness of the current coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, the inventory at northern ports is continuously decreasing, and downstream terminal enterprises still have restocking needs, which support the coal price to rebound slightly. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that the coal price will run in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Calculation of Price Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the price change. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and an increase of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2][3] 3.3 Price and Market Logic of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal is oscillating. The core logic is that during the critical period of peak winter power consumption, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly, and with two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the restocking demand of downstream power plants and other terminal enterprises still exists, supporting the coal price to stabilize and rebound slightly. However, in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only rose slightly by 11 yuan/ton, which also reflects the current weakness of the coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal industry has a long - term expectation of a loose supply of thermal coal without capacity control policies. Even during the peak winter season, downstream users are cautious in purchasing. Considering the support during the peak season and the anti - involution policy, the thermal coal price is expected to remain in a narrow range in February [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the week of January 16th, the capacity utilization rate of 462 thermal coal mines nationwide was 90.6%, with a daily average raw coal output of 5.467 million tons, returning to the level of mid - December. After entering the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to achieving annual targets resumed production, and the coal mines in the production areas were operating stably as the Spring Festival holiday had not yet arrived [4] - In the first two weeks of January, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 13.252 million tons, with a daily average arrival volume of 1.104 million tons. This was a month - on - month decrease compared to the daily average arrival volume of 1.317 million tons in December but a 13.8% year - on - year increase [4] Demand Side - In late January, affected by the cold wave, the temperature in coastal cities dropped sharply, and the daily coal consumption of power plants increased [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price rally narrowed and stabilized this week. The price is expected to remain low due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [5]. - **Core Logic**: As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton. In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, reducing residents' heating demand. Although the temperature will drop significantly in late January, port and downstream power plant coal stocks are sufficient as of now. The coal market atmosphere is weak, and prices remain low. This week, main - producing area coal mines maintained normal production. Non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, some coal mines faced increased shipping pressure, and the mine - end atmosphere began to weaken. As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expected shutdown of coal mines during the Spring Festival provides supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after a decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production to meet annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. Recently, the drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8th, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.614 million tons, and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The demand has a phased decline, and the port coal price has stabilized again. The overall supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the price has stopped falling and risen slightly [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation" [1] 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, the domestic thermal coal price maintained a slight upward trend. After the new year, the coal mines that had stopped production to meet the annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. The recent drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 8, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]