中国发展改革报社评论员 | 杨禹 9月29日召开的中央政治局会议强调，"十五五"时期，"坚持高质量发展，以新发展理念引领发展，因地 制宜发展新质生产力，推动经济持续健康发展和社会全面进步"。 习近平总书记在今年4月30日召开的部分省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会上就曾提出，"'十五 五'时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置"。 抓科技创新，有两组"三个词"是关键： 一是"革命性、原创性、颠覆性"。新质生产力由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型 升级而催生，追求的是原创性、颠覆性科技创新成果竞相涌现。这三个词，都带有"质变"特征，体现着 发展新质生产力，不能满足于在原有创新水平上继续实现"量变"，而要谋求突破、向上升级，往"质 变"进发。 二是"教育、科技、人才"。教育强国、科技强国、人才强国，现在经常被一起提到。去年党的二十届三 中全会部署改革任务，强调"统筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革"。今年4月，北京在全国率先整 合成立教育科技人才工作领导小组。显然，教育、科技、人才，在"十五五"，愈发要体现一体统筹、一 体推进。 抓产业创新，实体经济是根基，三方面产业需并重。 ...

中金公司研报认为，近期市场表现出较强的结构性特征，热点集中在成长板块。由于前期市场成交迅速 放大、交易集中，8月底后A股市场进入盘整震荡期，但不乏结构亮点。海外AI算力的强劲需求持续被 印证，中国能源转型目标较为清晰，在全球产业链上的定位决定了中国以制造业大国的角色参与技术革 命，研报认为推动制造升级将是中长期趋势，正在催化股票市场的结构性机会。10月建议关注如下配置 思路：1）AI算力和机器人等相关产业链；2）创新药、消费电子、电池和有色金属等行业；3）工程机 械、电网设备、养殖业与饲料等行业；4）"十五五"相关领域。（人民财讯） ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of unity and determination in advancing the cause of national rejuvenation and modernization in China, as articulated by President Xi Jinping during the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China [1] - The speech highlights the achievements of the Communist Party in leading the nation towards self-reliance and continuous struggle, showcasing a bright future for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation [1] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is set to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its strategic measures, reinforcing the confidence of the party and the people in advancing Chinese-style modernization [2] Group 2 - Local leaders express optimism and commitment towards the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the transformation of red resources and promoting rural revitalization to enhance local economic development [3] - The emphasis on grassroots efforts and community engagement reflects a broader strategy to ensure that the benefits of national policies reach the local populace, thereby fostering a sense of shared progress and prosperity [3] - The sentiment among citizens indicates a strong belief in the party's leadership and the notion that a better future is achievable through collective effort and dedication to the national cause [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing positive momentum, driven by recent developments in China's space missions and anticipated growth in military procurement and new strategic areas. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, the CN5082 aerospace industry index increased by 0.41%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Aerospace Technology (688239) up 5.17%, AVIC Chengfei (302132) up 3.04%, and Aero Engine Corporation (600893) up 2.69% [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) rose by 0.18%, with the latest price reported at 1.13 yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities highlights the optimistic outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on military trade and new strategic areas, with expected procurement orders likely to start in Q4 2025 [2] - The military industry is expected to see a surge in demand for new main battle equipment and enhanced combat capabilities as the 100th anniversary of the military in 2027 approaches [2] - The military trade sector is entering a "Deepseek" phase, with a rapid increase in global market share, driving both quantity and price growth in equipment demand [2] Group 3: ETF and Index Composition - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the CN5082 index, which has a high military content of 97.96%, focusing on aerospace and defense sub-sectors [2] - The constituent stocks cover a comprehensive range of the industry, including fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, aero engines, missiles, satellites, and radar, aligning with the "integrated aerospace" strategic direction [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant achievements in the financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting reforms in financial systems, services to the real economy, support for technological development, and risk prevention [1][2] - The financial regulatory system reform has been successfully completed, enhancing the legal framework of China's capital market [1] - A series of milestone policies have been introduced to support the development of the technology industry, accelerating the formation of a comprehensive financial ecosystem covering the entire lifecycle of technological innovation [1] Group 2 - Effective resolution of financial risks in high-risk areas such as local government financing, real estate, and small financial institutions has been achieved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, laying a solid foundation for economic development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The macroeconomic policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has focused on domestic priorities while balancing internal and external factors, ensuring ample liquidity to support economic development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on both domestic and international factors while ensuring liquidity remains ample [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the economic landscape to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the PBOC aims to enhance financial support for the real economy while also prioritizing the prevention of financial risks and maintaining financial stability [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The PBOC has achieved a significant reduction in local government financing platform risks, with the number of financing platforms decreasing by over 60% and financial debt scale declining by over 50% compared to the beginning of 2023 [2] - The PBOC is committed to maintaining stable financial market operations and has supported the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in playing a role similar to a "stabilization fund" [2] - Legislative efforts are ongoing to enhance the financial stability framework, including the advancement of laws related to financial stability and the PBOC, as well as the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's overall assessment indicates that financial risks are manageable, and the financial system is operating robustly, providing strong support for high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Discussions regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be communicated after central government directives [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to become a focal point for the market, emphasizing anti-involution, service consumption, boosting domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [1] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment remains high, with no significant signs of peak or decline, while indices are experiencing narrow fluctuations at high levels [1] - Individual stocks and sectors are showing considerable volatility [1] Investment Strategy - As risks increase in high-positioned sectors, the strategy suggests focusing less on indices and more on individual stocks [1] - It is recommended to position in low-positioned sectors and focus on stocks related to "refusing adjustments" [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include humanoid robots, AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical window for the construction of a new industrialization and modern industrial system in China, with profound changes expected in industrial structure, supply chains, and value chains [1] Group 1: Industrial Structure Adjustment - The industrial structure adjustment will exhibit a "three-track parallel" feature, with emerging and future industries transitioning from cultivation to explosive growth, becoming new engines of economic growth [3] - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development through technological upgrades and model innovations [3] - The deep integration of manufacturing and service industries is giving rise to new service-oriented manufacturing models, promoting the synergy between the real economy and the digital economy [3] Group 2: Industrial Chain Upgrade - The upgrade of the industrial chain focuses on three main directions: enhancing the concentration of leading industries, optimizing the regional division of labor, and strengthening talent strategies [3] - By concentrating on strategic fields such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, China aims to consolidate its leading position in global manufacturing [3] - The transfer of industries from the eastern to the central and western regions is forming a gradient development pattern, supported by dual-driven policies for overseas talent introduction and local talent cultivation [3] Group 3: Supply Chain Restructuring - The restructuring of the supply chain is characterized by a "main and auxiliary chain collaboration" model, where the domestic main chain leverages a complete industrial system and a large domestic market to consolidate cost advantages in traditional industries [3] - The overseas auxiliary chain is being localized in regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to adapt to tariff policies and green standards, enhancing the resilience of the supply chain [3] - This "dual circulation" supply chain adjustment significantly strengthens China's ability to respond to global demand fluctuations [3] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Asset allocation should focus on three main lines: investing in areas of industrial structure upgrade, particularly in the scaling of emerging industries, intelligent transformation of traditional industries, and integration projects [4] - Regional asset allocation should be centered around leading industries, capturing the synergy between eastern innovation resources and central and western manufacturing bases [4] - Supporting enterprises' global layout through cross-border finance and logistics services will assist main chain companies in building overseas supply chain networks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of China's economy is influenced by three key factors: consumption, real estate, and technological self-reliance, which are critical for achieving high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][3][5]. Consumption - China's resident consumption rate has been persistently low, with a rate of only 39.45% when per capita GDP reached $10,000 in 2019. Although there is an expected improvement by 2024, it remains 10% to 20% lower than that of major economies. This structural issue is attributed to insufficient social security, unstable resident expectations, and weak consumer confidence, compounded by pressures in education, healthcare, and elderly care [3]. - To unlock consumption potential, it is essential to enhance counter-cyclical policy support, improve social security levels, and expand the supply of quality services [3]. Real Estate - The era of large-scale and extensive expansion in real estate has ended, with the total housing supply issue largely resolved. However, there will be a long-term demand for improved and quality housing. The current low growth rate of fixed asset investment is primarily dragged down by a significant decline in real estate investment [3]. - Future real estate development must explore new models, focusing on urban renewal, community renovation, and infrastructure development, rather than relying on land finance and a single development model. Establishing a long-term mechanism that aligns the interests of the government, enterprises, and homeowners is crucial for the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector [3][4]. Technological Innovation - There is a pressing need to accelerate the transition from "follow-up innovation" to "frontier innovation" as a requirement of changing development stages and a key to achieving high-level technological self-reliance. This involves leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system and creating a vibrant innovation ecosystem [4]. - It is important to create an environment that allows various enterprises, especially private ones, to participate equally in major technological breakthroughs, reform the evaluation methods of scientific research, enhance tolerance and incentives for risk-taking, and establish a reasonable institutional framework between self-sufficiency and open cooperation [4]. Financial Role - Finance plays a crucial role in addressing the three aforementioned issues. It is essential for unlocking consumption potential, facilitating real estate transformation, and promoting technological innovation. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should continue to serve as a model and lead the way in exploring experiences during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. - The resolution of the issues related to consumption, real estate transformation, and technological innovation is vital for achieving a balanced supply-demand relationship and ensuring smooth economic circulation, which is necessary for stable and sustainable economic development in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing industry has achieved historic breakthroughs in various fields, producing several globally influential "firsts," which signify a shift from following and participating in international industrial division to leading and dominating it [1][2] Group 1: Achievements in Manufacturing - China's manufacturing sector has successfully launched significant projects such as the domestically produced large cruise ship "Aida Magic City," the commercial flight of the C919 large passenger aircraft, and the production of T800 aerospace carbon fiber, breaking foreign monopolies and reducing risks of being "choked" [1] - China is the only country with all industrial categories classified by the United Nations, with over 220 major industrial products ranking first in global production, showcasing a comprehensive and large-scale industrial system [2] Group 2: Contributions to Global Supply Chains - The robust Chinese manufacturing system has not only improved domestic living standards but also reduced economic development costs for other countries, contributing significantly to the stability of global industrial and supply chains amid a sluggish world economy [2] - The experience of China's manufacturing development and transformation is aiding more economies in better participating in international industrial division, promoting local economic and social development [2] Group 3: Future Directions for Manufacturing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with achievements in emerging industries, supply chain resilience, and modern industrial system construction [3] - Future efforts should focus on enhancing capabilities in three areas: seizing technological transformation opportunities, overcoming institutional barriers, and ensuring the security of industrial and supply chains [4][5]