Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged to record highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand, particularly from the US and China, indicating a potential for continued price increases in the near future. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper trading on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $12,282 per tonne, while prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 100,000 yuan or $14,270 per tonne, marking a significant premium over US markets [1] - The most active copper contract for March delivery on the Comex in New York rose over 5% to an intraday high of $5.90345 per pound, equivalent to just over $13,000 per tonne, the highest level since July [2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - Significant supply disruptions have been noted, including a deadly accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading Freeport McMoRan to declare force majeure and reduce its output guidance for 2026 [3] - Other incidents, such as an underground flood at Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula mine and a fatal rock blast at Codelco's El Teniente mine, have also impacted global copper production [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - BMO Capital Markets forecasts an average copper price of $12,500 per tonne by Q2 2026, anticipating that mine supply will eventually catch up [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will be constrained to $10,000 - $11,000 per tonne in 2026 due to a projected surplus, despite current supply challenges [16] - In contrast, Bank of America has raised its price forecasts to $11,313 per tonne for 2026 and $13,501 per tonne for 2027, citing mine disruptions and strong demand [20] Group 4: Market Dynamics - A Chinese trader has made significant investments in copper, holding a net long position of approximately 90 kilotonnes, reflecting confidence in the market despite volatility [22] - BloombergNEF anticipates a structural deficit in copper starting from 2026, driven by electrification demand outpacing supply, with a potential shortfall of 19 million tonnes by 2050 without new mines [25]

Global | Metals & Mining Equity Research December 22, 2025 Examining Copper Production Trends: 3Q25 Wrap We track copper production from miners that report quarterly volumes. These companies account for ~70% of global mined copper supply. In this latest installment, we now incorporate full reported production for 3Q25 as all companies in our database have finally reported 3Q volumes. Based on these reports, total mined copper production for 3Q25 fell 2.1% q/q and also fell 3.6% y/y following multiple operat ...

Summary of Copper Production Trends: 3Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global copper mining industry, specifically examining production trends for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) [1][2][3]. Key Findings - **Production Decline**: Total mined copper production for 3Q25 fell by 1.0% sequentially and 2.4% year-over-year (y/y) due to operational challenges at key mines [1][3][7]. - **Future Expectations**: A more significant y/y decline is anticipated in 4Q25, particularly due to the complete shutdown of the Grasberg mine, which contributes approximately 3% to global supply when operating at full capacity [1][3]. Market Dynamics - **Supply vs. Demand**: There is ongoing debate regarding the impact of mine supply growth on the copper market balance. Some analysts believe that market deficits are unlikely in the near term due to weak demand and expected recovery in production from mines facing operational issues. However, the report argues that risks to overall supply expectations remain on the downside, predicting sizable deficits in the copper market over the next year, even with a global GDP growth of 2% [2][6]. Production Data - **Reported Volumes**: Companies in the database that reported 3Q25 production account for approximately 70% of global mined copper supply. The total reported volumes from these companies fell by 1.0% from 2Q25 and decreased by 2.4% y/y [1][3][11]. - **Operational Challenges**: The decline in production is primarily attributed to operational issues at the Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines [3][11]. Price Outlook - **Bullish Sentiment**: The report expresses a bullish outlook on copper prices, driven by significant supply constraints and growing global demand. It is recommended to invest in a diversified basket of copper miners to mitigate exposure to specific risks [6][14]. Demand Forecast - **Global Demand Trends**: The report includes a detailed copper supply-demand model, indicating that the copper market has entered a period of growing deficits. The demand for copper is expected to increase across various sectors, including construction, electric networks, and renewable energy [14][15]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Projections**: The report provides forecasts for Chinese and global copper demand, highlighting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% for total demand from 2025 to 2030 [15]. - **Price Projections**: Future price forecasts suggest an increase in copper prices, with expectations of reaching $6.00 per pound by 2029 [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the report on copper production trends and market dynamics, emphasizing the challenges and opportunities within the industry.

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a volume contraction with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2% and total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges falling below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.71%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.96% [1] Group 2: Communication Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reported that institutional holdings in the communication sector reached a record high in Q3 2025, with public funds and northbound capital's holdings accounting for 6.87% and 2.82% of the market value, respectively [2] - The report highlighted a strong performance in the AI computing power sector and recommended continued investment in both North American and domestic computing power supply chains, as well as AI application sectors [2] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Huatai Securities indicated that the high growth trend in AI-related investments may continue, and discussions about whether this trend is a bubble may be premature [3] - The firm noted that while AI investments are growing rapidly and valuations are high, it is still too early to determine if a bubble exists, as the current macroeconomic conditions do not trigger significant market adjustments [3] Group 4: Copper Market Outlook - CITIC Securities projected that the supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen, with global copper mine production declining nearly 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and a continued contraction anticipated in Q4 [4] - The report suggested that raw material shortages and potential "de-involution" will contribute to a reduction in domestic refined copper supply, with a forecast that LME copper prices could exceed $10,000 per ton, indicating upward potential [4]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - The report focuses on the copper industry, highlighting global production, inventory levels, and price dynamics. Key Points 1. **Global Copper Production Growth**: - Global copper production grew by 5% year-to-date through July 2025, but recent supply disruptions are expected to decelerate this growth. Notable disruptions include Kamoa-Kakula in May, Grasberg in September, and a downgrade from Teck in October [1][2][6]. 2. **Inventory Trends**: - Despite significant mine disruptions, global copper inventories have increased to approximately 700,000 tonnes from below 500,000 tonnes in June, marking the highest levels in the last five years. A deficit is forecasted for Q4 2025, suggesting a potential reversal in inventory trends [1][2][6]. 3. **Price Dynamics**: - LME copper prices have risen by 23% this year, reaching $4.84/lb, significantly outperforming aluminum, which increased by 10%. The market is currently in slight backwardation, but tight supply-demand dynamics are expected to support prices [1][2][6]. 4. **Future Price Projections**: - J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Team anticipates average copper prices of $12,000/tonne ($5.44/lb) in Q1 2026 and around $11,240/tonne ($5.10/lb) for 2026, driven by major supply disruptions, particularly at Grasberg [2][6]. 5. **Refined Copper Deficit**: - A significant refined copper deficit is projected, with a shortfall of 160,000 tonnes in Q4 2025 and approximately 300,000 tonnes for 2026, despite a slowdown in Chinese demand and a forecasted global refined production growth of 2.2% [2][6]. 6. **Supply Risks**: - Ongoing supply risks at key mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and Quebrada Blanca have led to a downward revision of 430,000 tonnes in 2026 mine supply estimates. Additionally, scrap supply growth is expected to slow due to policy changes in China [2][6]. 7. **Equity Preferences**: - In terms of equities, J.P. Morgan continues to favor Capstone Copper (CSC) in Australia and Antofagasta in EMEA, while also being overweight on Freeport and First Quantum in North America [1][6]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High-frequency data shows mixed signals; treatment charges (TC/RCs) show no signs of recovery, while LME net speculative positioning is trending higher, indicating increased market interest [1][2][6]. - **Copper vs. Other Commodities**: Copper has shown a strong performance compared to other commodities, with significant year-to-date movements [1][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the copper industry.

Summary of Copper Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the copper market, projecting a new price range of $10,000-$11,000 per ton starting in 2026, driven by supply constraints and structural demand growth from critical sectors [2][5][20]. Key Points Price Forecasts - The 2026 copper price forecast has been raised to $10,500 per ton from $10,000, with a 2027 forecast maintained at $10,750 per ton [2][5]. - The price is expected to remain capped at $11,000 for the next two years due to market dynamics [2][17]. Supply Dynamics - Mine supply growth is constrained, averaging +1.5% year-over-year from 2025 to 2030, primarily due to deeper mining operations and lower ore grades [2][4][34]. - Recent mine disruptions, including the Grasberg outage, have led to a projected 6% drop in global refined copper production from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 [10][15]. - New supply is anticipated from low-capex, price-responsive mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and China, which are expected to meet demand in the short term [10][39]. Demand Trends - Global refined copper demand growth is forecasted to moderate from +2.8% year-over-year in 2025 to an average of +2.1% from 2026 to 2030, driven by infrastructure investments [2][63]. - Critical sectors such as grid and power infrastructure are expected to account for over 60% of demand growth, with additional contributions from defense, electric vehicles, and data centers [3][62]. Substitution Effects - There is an anticipated acceleration in the substitution of copper with aluminum in cyclical sectors, which is expected to moderate copper demand growth and cap prices [3][70]. - The copper/aluminum price ratio is projected to exceed 4:1 in 2026, further incentivizing this substitution [70]. Strategic Stockpiling - Strategic stockpiling of copper is considered essential due to its constrained resources and critical applications, particularly in the US and China [25][28]. - The US has allocated approximately $500 million for cobalt stockpiling, with potential plans for copper stockpiling estimated at $1.8 billion for 40 days of consumption [28][31]. Market Balance - The copper market is expected to remain in a small surplus until the end of the decade, with a projected deficit emerging by 2029 [18][78]. - The balance of refined production and consumption indicates a surplus of 180,000 tons in 2026, with a gradual shift towards a deficit by 2029 [78]. Risks and Considerations - If copper prices rise too quickly, it may lead to accelerated substitution and a slowdown in demand growth from cyclical sectors [17][70]. - The analysis highlights the uncertainty surrounding strategic stockpiling, suggesting that without it, the surplus could exert downward pressure on prices [32]. Conclusion - The copper market is poised for a significant price adjustment due to supply constraints and evolving demand dynamics, with strategic stockpiling playing a crucial role in shaping future price trajectories. The interplay between supply, demand, and substitution will be critical in determining the market's direction over the next several years.

Core Viewpoint - Recent international copper prices have surged, with New York Mercantile Exchange copper futures exceeding $4.9 per pound, driven by significant supply-demand changes rather than short-term fluctuations [1] Supply Disruption - The immediate cause of the price increase is a major supply disruption due to a landslide at Indonesia's Grasberg Block mine, which has been fully shut down since September 8, resulting in casualties and severely impacting multiple operational aspects [1] - Other mining operations have declared force majeure, exacerbating market concerns over short-term supply shortages [1] Demand Dynamics - Structural demand growth is contributing to the price rise, with a recent Goldman Sachs report downgrading global copper supply forecasts and warning of a supply-demand gap expected in 2025-2026 [1] - Analysts highlight that the current copper price increase is underpinned by solid fundamentals, driven by the proliferation of electric vehicles, expansion of renewable energy infrastructure, and the global digitalization process [1] Beneficiaries - Major copper-exporting countries such as Chile and Peru are expected to benefit from the rising copper prices [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining - **Current Trends**: Strong demand persists despite rising global inventories; LME copper price has increased by 13% year-to-date (YTD) to $4.46/lb [1][1][1] Key Takeaways 1. **Global Copper Production**: - Increased by 7.4% YTD as of May, with notable strength in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Chile, while Peru showed weakness [1][1][1] - Global copper inventories rose approximately 160,000 tons from around 440,000 tons in late June to about 600,000 tons currently, nearing 2023/24 levels [1][1][1] 2. **China's Copper Market**: - Refined copper production in China rose by 11% YTD through July, matching a 12% increase in demand, although July demand saw a 4% decline year-over-year (YoY) [1][1][1] - Downstream purchases in China are reportedly weak, with onshore premiums declining from earlier in the year [2][2][2] 3. **Market Dynamics**: - High-frequency data presents mixed signals: - Positive indicators include falling TC/RCs (treatment and refining charges), rising cathode premiums, and increasing smelter operating rates in China [1][1][1] - Negative indicators include a decline in LME net speculative positioning returning to five-year average levels [1][1][1] 4. **Price and Inventory Trends**: - Despite rising inventories, the LME copper price has increased, with forward curves in contango, the highest in the past year [1][1][1] - The current LME copper price is $4.46/lb, reflecting a strong market position [1][1][1] 5. **Equity Preferences**: - J.P. Morgan continues to favor Capstone Copper (CSC) in Australia and Antofagasta in EMEA, both rated as Overweight [1][1][1] Additional Insights - **Future Outlook**: - The copper supply-demand balance is expected to remain in marginal surplus for 2025/26, but a positive long-term outlook is maintained [2][2][2] - **Analyst Ratings**: - Various companies in the copper sector have been rated, with BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore receiving Overweight ratings, while Southern Copper is rated Neutral [4][4][4] Conclusion - The copper industry is experiencing strong production and demand, particularly in China, despite rising inventories. The market remains optimistic about long-term prospects, with specific equities highlighted for investment.

Summary of Copper Production Trends: 2Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global copper mining industry, tracking production trends from major miners that account for approximately 70% of global mined copper supply [1][12]. Key Findings - **Production Increase**: Total copper production for 2Q25 increased by 5.0% sequentially from 1Q25 and by 10.3% year-over-year (y/y), driven by significant production increases at Codelco and Rio Tinto [1][3][14]. - **Major Contributors**: Codelco and Rio Tinto were highlighted as notable contributors to the production increase, with Codelco reporting a 9% y/y increase in 1H25 [5][14]. - **Production Data**: The report includes data from select companies that have reported their 2Q25 production, which accounts for only 29% of global copper mine supply [3][14]. Market Dynamics - **Supply Growth Debate**: There is ongoing debate regarding the impact of mine supply growth on the copper market balance. Some analysts predict a supply overhang in the near term due to ongoing project expansions, while others anticipate market deficits later in the decade [2][5]. - **Demand Outlook**: Despite potential near-term demand volatility, the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to increasing global demand and significant supply constraints [5][15]. Production Trends - **Historical Context**: The report notes that copper output in 1H25 was at the highest level in the past decade, indicating a strong recovery in production levels [6]. - **Quarterly Production Data**: The report provides detailed quarterly production data for various companies, showing fluctuations in production volumes over the past years [14]. Supply and Demand Forecast - **Deficit Projections**: The copper market is expected to enter a period of growing deficits, with forecasts indicating that demand will outpace supply in the coming years [15]. - **Global Demand Trends**: The report outlines projected demand growth in various sectors, including construction, electric networks, and renewable energy, with total global copper demand expected to increase steadily [16]. Valuation and Risks - **Company Valuations**: The report includes a comparative analysis of mining and steel company valuations, highlighting key metrics such as P/E ratios and EV/EBITDA multiples for major players in the industry [17]. - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include supply disruptions, demand volatility, and fluctuations in copper prices, which could impact overall market performance [18]. Conclusion - The copper mining industry is experiencing a significant production increase, driven by key players like Codelco and Rio Tinto. The medium-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of growing demand and supply constraints leading to potential market deficits in the future [15][16].

Investment Ratings - The report provides a "Buy" rating for First Quantum Minerals and Ero Copper, while Capstone Copper, Antofagasta, and Codelco are rated as "Neutral" [9][12][18][21][26][35]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing ongoing cyclical and structural bullishness regarding supply and demand dynamics [2]. - The consensus incentive price for copper is projected to be above $4.5/lb, with some major projects requiring prices between $4.75-$5/lb to incentivize capital returns [2][22][45]. - Cost inflation in the industry has peaked, and the regulatory environment is improving, which may support future project developments [2][22]. Summary by Company Antofagasta - Antofagasta is a pure-play copper producer with a market cap of $24.7 billion, targeting copper production of approximately 750ktpa in 2024 [9]. - The company is focused on brownfield project development, with major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres progressing on schedule [10]. - The 2025 copper production guidance is set at 660-700kt, with net cash costs expected between $1.45-1.65/lb [11]. Capstone Copper - Capstone Copper, with a market cap of $4.7 billion, has a production guidance of 220kt-255kt for 2025 [14]. - The company is focusing on deleveraging and smaller expansion projects before a significant growth phase with the Santo Domingo project [15]. - The management anticipates a financing gap of $200-300 million for the Santo Domingo project, which they aim to address through internal cash flow generation [16]. Codelco - Codelco, a state-owned enterprise, aims for a copper production target of 1.7Mt by 2030, with significant projects at Chuquicamata and El Teniente [21][24]. - The company is exploring public-private partnerships to enhance copper production and smelting capacity [23]. - Codelco's capital allocation strategy includes a focus on internal cash flow to fund growth, with an available capital of $4 billion [25]. Ero Copper - Ero Copper, with a market cap of $1.8 billion, is expected to reach commercial production at its Tucumã operation soon, with a production capacity of 85ktpa of copper [26]. - The company aims to maintain C1 cash costs below $2.00/lb, leveraging high-grade zones at its Caraíba mine [27]. - Ero Copper has a 12-month price target of $18.0 based on DCF methodology [28]. First Quantum Minerals - First Quantum Minerals, with a market cap of $14.7 billion, has a production capacity of 820ktpa and is focused on strong physical demand and tight inventories [30]. - The company is excited about the Furnas project, which is expected to deliver high-grade deposits [31]. - First Quantum has a 12-month target price of C$22.0/share based on an EV/EBITDA multiple-based valuation [35]. Foran Mining - Foran Mining is the only single-asset developer constructing a copper mine in North America, targeting commercial production by mid-2026 [37]. - The company has cleared permitting and funding hurdles, with surface construction approximately 35% complete [38]. Freeport-McMoran - Freeport-McMoran, the largest publicly traded pure-play copper producer, is focused on improving efficiencies and reducing costs [39]. - The company has a large project pipeline representing an annual capacity of 2.5 billion lbs [40]. Hudbay Minerals - Hudbay Minerals has a market cap of $4.2 billion and is advancing its Copper World project, which is fully permitted for 85ktpa production [41]. - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment in the US and Peru, which supports its project developments [42]. Teck Resources - Teck Resources is focused on responsible growth and value creation, with a strong portfolio of world-class assets [44]. - The company believes that copper incentive prices will need to be above $5/lb to generate adequate returns [45]. Vale Base Metals - Vale Base Metals is undergoing significant restructuring, with a focus on maximizing brownfield opportunities and improving project economics [48]. - The company aims for a copper production guidance of 700kt by 2035, with potential to exceed this figure [48].