Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to falling U.S. interest rates and rising debt levels, indicating that it has not yet found a bottom [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index was trading at 97.77 on July 21, 2025, and has shown little movement over the past two months, with potential for lower lows as U.S. rates decline [2]. - The dollar index has declined 12.5% from a high of 110.17 on January 13, 2025, to a low of 96.37 on July 1, 2025 [3]. - Since July 24, the index has consolidated within a range of 96.22 to 100.26, currently around 97.50, close to critical technical support at 96.22 [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the euro significantly influences the dollar index, with the euro making up 57.6% of the index [5]. - The Federal Reserve cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a midpoint of 4.125% during the September 18 FOMC meeting, with expectations for further reductions due to rising unemployment and low inflation [5][6]. - The Fed is likely to continue reducing rates, influenced by the upcoming appointment of a new Chairman in early 2026, which may align with the administration's preference for lower short-term rates [7][8].

Ha! The "safest bet" looks sorry so far 😬From Jan to Sep 2025:✔️ Bitcoin: +14.5%✔️ DXY (Dollar Index): -7.7%𝑪𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅𝒂 𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒓𝒚𝒑𝒕𝒐. 𝑺𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒄𝒂𝒏. https://t.co/KiHhf6uRb1 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds target range by -25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% and indicated downside risks to employment have increased while inflation remains elevated [3] - The Fed's dot plot projects the fed funds target at 3.625% by the end of 2025, signaling another -50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with a target range of 3.375% for the end of 2026 [3] - The FOMC raised its 2025 US GDP estimate to +1.6% from +1.4% and maintained its core PCE inflation estimate at +3.1%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [4] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - Fed Chair Powell noted that revised job numbers indicate the labor market is no longer solid, and the Fed's interest rate cuts aim to achieve a more neutral position to support the labor market [5] - Powell also mentioned that higher goods prices are contributing to inflation and are expected to continue rising into next year [5] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The dollar index rose by +0.22% after recovering from a 3.5-year low, initially retreating after the FOMC's rate cut announcement but rebounding on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Concerns over Fed independence may undermine the dollar, as potential political actions could lead foreign investors to divest from dollar assets [6] Group 4: Housing Market Data - In August, US housing starts fell -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [2] - Building permits also unexpectedly declined by -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, contrary to expectations of an increase to 1.370 million [2]

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)💥 Dollar Index $DXY is dumping — down 11% since January.Driven by expectations of upcoming #FOMC rate cuts.Positive: Risk assets love it. #Bitcoin, alts & equities usually pump as investors flee cash.Negative: A weaker dollar can reignite inflation pressures.The dollar’s fall = both rally fuel & inflation fire. 🌍💵 ...

💥 Dollar Index $DXY is dumping — down 11% since January.Driven by expectations of upcoming #FOMC rate cuts.Positive: Risk assets love it. #Bitcoin, alts & equities usually pump as investors flee cash.Negative: A weaker dollar can reignite inflation pressures.The dollar’s fall = both rally fuel & inflation fire. 🌍💵 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices reached their highest level in over a month, supported by positive manufacturing data from China and a weaker dollar [1][9] - Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.2% at $9,886 per metric ton after hitting $9,947, the highest since July 24 [1] - LME copper has increased by 12% this year, rebounding from $8,105 in early April, which was the lowest in over 16 months [1][6] Group 2 - A private sector survey indicated that China's factory activity in August expanded at the fastest pace in five months, driven by rising new orders [2] - The overall macro and cyclical conditions in China are improving, which is expected to positively impact final demand [2] - Chinese equities have also shown strong performance, reflecting broader market positivity [4] Group 3 - Concerns about US tariffs are dampening factory activity in other parts of Asia, which may affect metals markets [5] - The dollar index fell to a five-week low, influencing commodity prices for buyers using other currencies [7] - A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in US currency cheaper for international buyers, impacting overall demand [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs and believe the current price has mostly priced in previous expectations. The lower support for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The impact of the mine accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine may exceed expectations, and Coldeco needs to allocate more resources to address copper supply issues. The increase in the US dollar index on Monday evening slightly suppressed the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,020 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries; decline of the US dollar index due to employment data; obvious lower support [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies; reduced global demand due to tariff policies; extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main is 79,020 yuan/ton (0% daily change), Shanghai copper continuous one is 79,020 yuan/ton (0.68% daily increase), Shanghai copper continuous three is 79,030 yuan/ton (0% daily change), LME copper 3M is 9,726.5 US dollars/ton (- 0.42% daily change), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (0% daily change) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaohui, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,150 yuan/ton (0.79% daily increase), 79,130 yuan/ton (0.8% daily increase), 78,950 yuan/ton (0.73% daily increase), and 79,190 yuan/ton (0.7% daily increase) respectively [6]. Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,074.89 yuan/ton (37.1% daily increase), and the reasonable含税 refined - scrap price difference is 1,491.6 yuan/ton (0.41% daily increase) [8]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 23,275 tons (9.42% daily increase), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons (0% daily change) [12]. - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons (- 0.1% daily change), and the registered warehouse receipts are 143,725 tons (- 0.73% daily change) [14]. - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 265,196 tons (1.54% weekly increase), and the registered warehouse receipts are 121,933 tons (- 1.91% weekly change) [15]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 100.28 yuan/ton (- 59.08% daily change), and the copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton (0% daily change) [16].

Well, let's go from chips to the credit markets. Wall Street's watching closely as the Treasury hits the market with its latest 30-year bond auction. Investors are parsing demand for long-term debt amid rising deficits, shifting rate expectations, and of course, the economic outlook is uncertain.Rick Santelli joins us now from Chicago. Rick, what do you have. >> Yeah, you know, there is a lot to unpack there.Let's start at the beginning and let the charts do some talking. If you look at twos and tens since ...

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Market Trends - The WSJ Dollar Index increased by 0.82% to reach 94.98 this week [1]