Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics suggest a strong economic recovery theme, with significant spending expected in the hyperscaler sector, amounting to $650 billion this year, indicating ongoing competition among major companies [1][3]. Group 1: Sector Preferences - There is a favorable outlook on industrials, utilities, and financials, with a belief that these sectors present good investment opportunities due to their current valuations not being overly priced [5]. - The financial sector is particularly highlighted, with regional banks performing well, driven by factors such as tax refunds and deregulation [6][8]. - A preference for consumer staples over consumer discretionary is noted, reflecting a cautious market sentiment, although the overall stance on staples is unfavorable [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Trends and Risks - The economic recovery theme is expected to be well entrenched, suggesting that the market has not fully recognized the potential for stronger growth this year [3]. - Concerns about job losses due to AI and potential economic recession are deemed overblown, with a belief that the market's fears are exaggerated [10][12]. - The recent decline in financial stocks is viewed as a reset rather than a sign of deeper trouble, maintaining a positive outlook on the sector [7][8].

2026年1月金融数据整体符合并略超市场预期，呈现总量稳健、结构优化、资金活跃度提升的特征，主 要受适度宽松货币政策发力、年初信贷集中投放、财政支出靠前发力及春节错位因素带动。 据人民银行，2月13日，人民银行发布的统计数据显示，2026年1月份社会融资规模增量为7.22万亿元， 比上年同期多1662亿元。2026年1月末社会融资规模存量为449.11万亿元，同比增长8.2%。M2-M1剪刀 差为4.1个百分点，较2025年12月进一步收窄。 信贷方面，1月人民币贷款增加4.71万亿元，企业中长期贷款增加3.18万亿元，占比显著提升，显示实体 融资需求回暖，政策支持下制造业、基建等领域信贷投放力度加大，住户贷款平稳增长，居民消费与购 房需求逐步修复。 社融方面，增量7.22万亿元创同期新高，同比多增1662亿元，主要由政府债券、企业债券及未贴现票据 共同支撑，社融存量增速8.2%，宽信用政策效果持续显现，对实体经济支持力度稳定。 具体到A股市场，1月金融数据有助于提振市场风险偏好，相对利好金融、周期、成长等多个方向。银 行、券商板块受益于信贷回暖与息差企稳；基建、制造、科技成长板块受益于流动性充裕与企业盈利预 ...

Weekly Chart: Germany's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since mid-2022, providing a rare lift for Europe's largest economy.The HCOB Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in February from 49.1. This crossed the 50‑point threshold that separates contraction from growth, according to S&P Global. The Composite PMI climbed to 53.1, its highest since October, with services driving the improvement. Business activity reached a four‑month high.Why it matters: Germany's industrial cycle remains the an ...

Key TakeawaysGerman business sentiment surged to 88.6 in February, outperforming market expectations of 88.3 and marking a six-month high for the Eurozone's largest economy.Italy’s final harmonized inflation (HICP) held steady at 1.0% Y/Y in January, confirming preliminary data and supporting the European Central Bank's (ECB) current disinflationary narrative.Swiss sight deposits jumped to 457.6B CHF for the week ending February 20, up from 452.7B CHF previously, signaling a notable increase in liquidity wi ...

Economic Performance - Japan's economy showed a meager growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter, significantly below the expected 1.6% increase, following a revised contraction of 2.6% in the previous quarter [3] - The quarterly growth rate was only 0.1%, again falling short of the median estimate of 0.4% [3] Government Response - Prime Minister Takaichi's administration plans to increase public spending to boost consumption and economic growth following a recent election victory [1] - There is a focus on suspending the consumption tax, particularly on food, as sluggish economic activity may prompt quicker fiscal measures, including a supplementary budget in the first half of the fiscal year starting in April [4][5] Market Reactions - Japanese stocks experienced a downturn following the GDP data release, while bond markets remained subdued [5] - Analysts suggest that the weak economic performance may lead to slower interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as the economy struggles to gain momentum [6]

Economic Outlook - The German Economy Ministry reports increasing signs of stability in the economic recovery, with indicators suggesting continued improvement at the start of 2026 [2][3] - China's January aggregate financing reached CNY 7.22 trillion, exceeding the estimated CNY 7.085 trillion, while the M2 money supply grew by 9.0% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 8.3% [4] - However, new yuan loans for January were CNY 4.71 trillion, falling short of the CNY 5.00 trillion forecast, indicating potential caution among businesses and consumers [5] Corporate Performance - L'Oréal's CEO stated that 2026 is "off to a strong start" in key markets such as the United States and mainland China [6] - Air China reported a 3% increase in passenger traffic for January, reflecting positive trends in the travel sector [6] - The technology and communication services sectors are leading this earnings season with beat rates of 95% and 100%, while healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors are struggling with negative blended growth [7] Geopolitical Developments - The Trump administration has paused planned bans on certain Chinese technology firms, which may ease immediate pressures on the tech supply chain [8] - In the UK, Labour leader Keir Starmer's team has shifted focus to a 20/80 split between foreign and domestic policy to address economic challenges [9]

Defence spending may kickstart economic recovery, but it will take a while https://t.co/xhW2hUWVAW ...

Economic Outlook - The current economic indicators suggest a largely positive outlook, with durable goods showing strength and manufacturing output on an upward trend, indicating complementary hiring is a welcome sign for the economy [2][4] - Consumption is projected to grow at 2.3% in the fourth quarter, despite weak retail sales, which is still considered a solid number [4] Job Market Analysis - The quality of jobs being created appears to be positive, as indicated by average hourly earnings, suggesting that there are quality jobs across various sectors [4] - The narrowness of job gains and economic growth remains a concern, with spending by upper-income consumers and AI-related business spending being key factors [6] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, such as health and social assistance and private education, have shown significant job gains, which are somewhat independent of economic cycles [5] - There is an expectation of broader economic recovery and stabilization in the labor market, which could lead to a decrease in inflation and support purchasing power across the economy [6][7]

February 10, 2026 04:49 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: Marketing Feedback – Where We Agree, Where We Disagree Investors are constructive on Asia. But investors are focused mainly on tech, while we see a broadening out to non-tech. That means investors are more bullish on North Asia ex China in a relative context. For China, investors are bullish on the micro but recognize the macro challenges. Key Takeaways In this report, we offer our thoughts on the following key debates that we have ...

Japan has given Takaichi a landslide win - but can she bring back the economy? https://t.co/vTlSYgZhJL ...