Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Market & Trade Talk Outlook - TIAA Wealth Management manages $1.4 trillion in client assets [1] - Extending the deadline for China trade negotiations would be a positive market outcome [1] - A major deal from current China trade talks is not anticipated [2] - US trade policy uncertainty is decreasing, with European and Japanese deals setting a framework [2] - Trade truce between the US and China should hold due to economic interdependencies, despite occasional flare-ups [3] Tariff Impact & Economic Growth - Tariffs of approximately 15% are being applied to major trading partners like Europe and Japan [2] - Tariffs of 19% to 20% are being applied to other Asian countries, aimed at curbing Chinese transshipment [3] - Current tariff levels of 15% to 16% on $3.1 trillion in US imports equate to about $400 billion in taxes on businesses and consumers [5] - The economy is expected to slow down to a 1% to 1.5% growth rate due to tariffs [5] Potential Economic Offsets - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, looking past inflation and focusing on a cooling labor market [6] - Deregulation and potential rise in capital expenditures could lead to an uptick in growth next year [7] - Income tax relief to households and corporations may offset some tariff costs [7][8] - Re-industrialization and manufacturing starts in the US are rising, benefiting industrial companies [9] - Reshoring is taking place, which may not be fully factored into stock prices [10]

But the market's not where you are, right, Van. Welcome. Uh, hey, Kelly, how are you.First of all, thanks for having me on and thanks for letting me one be one of your last guests before you go on leave. Uh, best of luck to your family and I hope to see you again very soon. Thank you.No one better to kick things off and and no better topic uh really than talking about, you know, Fed rate cuts because what is it, July. So, they're not priced for July. Are they priced for September. Uh, they're priced for Yea ...

$BTC's bull case looks strong as traders price in more Fed rate cuts for 2026 and Treasury yields point to continued fiscal splurge. However, yield differentials suggest JPY strength ahead, which could cause market jitters. By @godbole17.https://t.co/AA6lnQ3Wfy ...

According to WSJ, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has privately advised Donald Trump against removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing strong economic performance, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year, and potential legal and political risks. Bessent also noted that Powell's term ends in May, allowing for a natural transition. Trump described Bessent as “reassuring.”https://t.co/zcyA2C9epR ...

I'm now find executive editor Brian Todd taking a look at a live shot of the opening bells on Wall Street on this Thursday morning. An extra special I would say guests ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange. That is Disney CEO Bob Iger.Uh also I see I see Mickey. I see many very important guests there getting trading underway down there. They're at the Disneyland Resort in Anon, California in celebration of Disneyland's 70th anniversary.NYC President Lin Martin also there in attend. You can see her ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]

Company Performance & Strategy - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, indicating the importance of trade policy for Nvidia's future, especially concerning AI and China [1] - Netflix is scheduled to report earnings on July 17, prompting anticipation regarding the company's performance and outlook [1] Market Trends & Economic Factors - The Fed's July FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts are under close observation, with Wall Street insiders providing insights on the outlook for these rate cuts [1]

Market Overview & Strategy - The market has largely priced in positive news, suggesting limited further upside and increased downside risk if earnings disappoint [1][7] - Strategy Asset Managers favors international markets due to the depreciating dollar, creating advantages for certain stocks [2] - A weak dollar is generally beneficial for US net exporters and should aid international stocks through translation effects [6][8] - The firm advises clients to look beyond short-term market noise and maintain a confident long-term outlook [5] Investment Opportunities - Marcato Libre, an e-commerce and fintech company with exposure to Argentina, is favored due to growth potential in Latin America, which is considered greater than in Europe [3] - The healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, is highlighted as a key area of focus [13] - Eli Lilly (Lily) is favored for its potential in the GLP-1 drug market, targeting the billion people globally who are obese [13] - Next-generation vaccines and personalized cancer vaccines represent exciting advancements in biotechnology [14] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts, potentially starting towards the end of the year [10] - The high US deficit necessitates eventual rate cuts, although the timing remains uncertain [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report raises the S&P 500 return forecasts to +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900) for the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the index [2][3]. Core Insights - The report attributes the revised forecasts to earlier and deeper Fed easing, lower bond yields, and the fundamental strength of large stocks, leading to a revised forward P/E forecast of 22x [2][8]. - EPS growth forecasts are maintained at +7% for both 2025 and 2026, but there are risks to these estimates due to the shifting tariff landscape [12][23]. - The report anticipates a broadening of the market rally in the coming months, despite current narrow market breadth, which is one of the lowest in decades [17][23]. Summary by Sections S&P 500 Forecasts - The S&P 500 return forecasts have been raised to +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900) for the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, up from previous targets of 5900, 6100, and 6500 [2][3]. - The report indicates that the new year-end S&P 500 forecast ranks at the upper end of strategist estimates [3]. Earnings and Valuation - The forward P/E forecast has been revised to 22x from 20.4x, supported by improved economic conditions and investor sentiment [8][12]. - EPS growth forecasts remain at +7% for both 2025 and 2026, with the report noting potential risks due to tariffs and inflation [12][23]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a narrow market breadth, with the median S&P 500 constituent over 10% below its 52-week high, suggesting a potential for a "catch up" among laggards [17][23]. - The report expects that as the Fed resumes its cutting cycle, the market will likely see further upside, supported by neutral investor positioning [23][29]. Investment Recommendations - Three key investment strategies are recommended: 1. Balanced sector allocation with overweights in Software & Services, Materials, Utilities, Media & Entertainment, and Real Estate [38]. 2. Focus on Alternative Asset Managers, which have lagged despite an improving capital markets backdrop [45]. 3. Target companies with high floating rate debt, which are expected to benefit from lower bond yields [52].