Key TakeawaysIran-US nuclear talks in Geneva have collapsed after Washington insisted on a "zero enrichment" policy, sparking immediate fears of a U.S. military strike and a rush by Gulf petrostates to export crude.The Pentagon has issued a "best and final" offer to Anthropic for unrestricted military use of its AI, warning the company could lose its government contracts or face "supply chain risk" designations by Friday.UK Gilt yields have plunged to multi-month lows, with the 10-year yield hitting its low ...

Silver’s a standout among precious metals, outpacing gold’s gains so far in 2026. - Getty Images/iStockphoto Silver has outpaced gains for gold so far this year and looks to be the “hedging asset” of choice for investors, with prices set to notch a 10 th straight monthly gain — the longest such streak on record. “Trade escalation typically revives investor appetite for hedging assets, particularly in a global environment marked by slowing growth and rising geopolitical polarization,” said Rania Gule, sen ...

Brent climbed nearly 5% last week on geopolitical tensions. Goldman now sees tighter supply supporting prices next year. ...

Group 1: Mexico Security Crisis - The Mexican army killed Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a military operation supported by U.S. intelligence [2][8] - The operation led to violent retaliation from cartel members across at least five Mexican states, prompting travel warnings from the UK and U.S. governments [3][8] - Analysts suggest that El Mencho's death may result in a power struggle within the CJNG, potentially destabilizing the region further in the short term [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - High-level nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to resume in Geneva, with the U.S. pushing for a "zero enrichment" deal amid heightened military presence in the region [5][6] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is preparing to review Iran's nuclear facilities, which may impact global oil supply and regional stability [6] Group 3: Market Update - Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG) ordinary shares will resume trading on the NZX Main Board after a trading halt due to a system error [7][9] - The resumption of trading coincides with Fonterra's significant divestment of the Mainland Group to Lactalis, targeting a tax-free capital return of approximately $3.2 billion [9]

The past few years have seen geopolitical tensions become far more acute than in the early 2010s, when it seemed a lingering financial recession was the biggest worry. This new environment has also led to many investmentAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (othe ...

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) is up almost 2% on Friday as two major catalysts collidePresident Donald Trump moved swiftly Friday to counter a landmark Supreme Court ruling, announcing he would sign an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff, stacking it on top of all existing tariffs already in place.The announcement came hours after the Supreme Court dealt Trump a stinging 6-3 defeat, ruling that his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an operating income of $129 million and net income of $99 million, translating to $9.33 per common unit [8] - EBITDA for the full year was $211 million, with a distribution of $10.54 per common unit [5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices increased by approximately 55% compared to Q4 2024, while ammonia prices rose by approximately 32% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout Q4, despite lower production and sales volumes [5][9] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on approximately 99 million acres planted [13] - U.S. inventory carryout levels for corn are expected to be above the 10-year average, while soybean levels are below [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects at both plants, aiming for utilization rates above 95% [16][17] - Plans include expanding DEF production and load-out capacity, and a feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility [17] - The board has reserved capital for future projects, expecting to spend over the next two years [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, anticipating strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers due to depleted soil nitrogen levels [13][30] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [14][15] - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in Q1 2026, with direct operating expenses projected at $57 million to $62 million [11][12] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [22] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed an uptick in prices based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [27][28] Question: How does acreage down for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to nitrogen depletion in soil and supply constraints [29][30]

For investors seeking momentum, the Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) is probably on the radar now. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up 50.5% from its 52-week low price of $18.22 per share.  But are there more gains in store for this ETF? Let’s take a quick look at the fund and its near-term outlook to get a better sense of where it might head.OILT in FocusThe fund provides exposure to companies that extract oil and gas within Texas. The fund charges 35 basis points (bps) in annual fees (See: ...

Core Insights - Oil prices surged over 4% on February 18, 2026, following U.S. Vice President JD Vance's remarks about Iran's failure to meet U.S. demands in nuclear negotiations, with military action remaining a potential option if diplomacy fails [1] - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, deploying aircraft carriers, indicating readiness for potential conflict [4] Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply - U.S. envoys held talks with Iranian officials, which were initially seen as constructive, leading to a temporary drop in oil prices [2] - However, sentiment shifted negatively after Vance's comments about Iran not addressing key U.S. concerns, coinciding with Iranian military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments [3] Impact on ETFs ETFs Likely to Gain - Energy sector ETFs, such as SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), are expected to benefit from rising oil prices due to reduced supplies, as oil exploration and production companies will likely increase output [5] - Norway's iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR) is positioned to gain, as Norway is a major oil producer and exporter, with oil significantly contributing to its GDP [6] ETFs Likely to Lose - Retail sector ETFs, like SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), are anticipated to suffer as rising energy prices will squeeze consumer spending power, leading to overall inflation [7] - The iShares India 50 ETF (INDY) may face challenges due to India's heavy reliance on oil imports, making it vulnerable to rising oil prices [8] - Airlines, represented by U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), are expected to underperform in a rising oil price environment, as energy costs constitute a significant portion of their overall expenses [11]

Naval Buildup and Military Options - The U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean to 13 ships, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, enhancing military readiness [2][9] - President Trump has been briefed on military strike options against Iran, focusing on crippling its nuclear infrastructure while avoiding a prolonged ground war [3][9] Market Impact: Defense Sector - The potential for military action has led to increased investor interest in defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX Corporation, as the U.S. military repositions advanced assets [4][9] - Geopolitical developments are viewed as catalysts for sustained defense spending in the sector [4] Market Impact: Energy Sector - Crude oil prices have shown high volatility due to the potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron trading with heightened sensitivity to supply chain risks [5][9] Emerging Market Volatility - The Indonesian Rupiah has depreciated to 16,900 per dollar, driven by a flight to safety into the U.S. Dollar and concerns over regional war and global inflation [6][9] - Bank Indonesia may need to intervene as the currency approaches the 17,000 mark, impacting regional asset investors [7][9]