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全球关税议题超越 IEEPA 裁决-Global Economic Briefing-Global Tariffs Moving Past IEEPA
2026-02-24 14:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around global tariffs, particularly the implications of the Supreme Court ruling on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and its replacement with Section 122 tariffs. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Levels**: Headline tariffs peaked in late 2025, with estimates indicating a reduction from approximately 13% to 11% due to the replacement of IEEPA with Section 122. Without Section 122, tariffs could fall to around 6-7% [6][12][27]. - **Complicated Path Ahead**: The path to higher tariffs is now more complex, with a risk skew towards lower tariffs, which supports expectations for lower US inflation in the second half of 2026 [6][10][29]. - **Sector vs. Country Tariffs**: The ruling suggests a shift from country-based tariffs to sector-based tariffs, which may have more legal grounding and could accelerate the tariff adjustment process [6][10][47]. - **Effective Tariff Rates**: The effective tariff rate remained subdued near 10%, and both nominal and effective rates are expected to decline post-IEEPA ruling [11][12][20]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Refunds Outlook**: The process for refunds related to tariffs remains unclear, with expectations that any refunds will be limited and delayed, potentially amounting to around $85 billion [31][30]. - **Bilateral Trade Agreements**: The ruling may not significantly alter existing bilateral agreements, as many countries are already facing lower tariff levels than before [32][66]. - **US-China Trade Relationship**: The US-China trade relationship is expected to remain stable, with a significant portion of tariffs tied to fentanyl and Section 301 investigations. Any reduction in IEEPA tariffs could be offset by increases in Section 301 tariffs [36][60]. - **Sector-Level Implications**: The transition to Section 122 tariffs is likely to reduce the dispersion in product-level tariffs, particularly benefiting consumer sectors, although the overall boost may be smaller than previously anticipated [68][69]. Conclusion - The Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA has significant implications for tariff structures, with a shift towards Section 122 tariffs expected to lower overall tariff levels and complicate future tariff adjustments. The focus on sector-based tariffs may provide a more stable framework moving forward, while the economic impact remains to be fully realized in the coming quarters.
The 15% Solution: How to Lose a Court Case and Double Down Before Dessert
Stock Market News· 2026-02-22 18:00
In the high-stakes world of global macroeconomics, most leaders treat a Supreme Court defeat as a signal to regroup, consult with legal counsel, and perhaps draft a measured response. President Donald Trump, however, prefers the “geometric progression of spite” model. After the U.S. Supreme Court spent its Friday morning dismantling his administration’s previous tariff framework, the President responded with the economic equivalent of a “hold my beer” moment. By Saturday, a proposed 10% global tariff had al ...
X @BSCN
BSCN· 2026-02-21 16:49
🚨BITCOIN PRICE DROPS AS TRUMP RAISES GLOBAL TARIFFS TO 15% FROM 10%$BTC falls following tariff hike announcement, with markets reacting negatively to increased trade tensions despite recent Supreme Court ruling.Crypto markets showing volatility amid broader economic uncertainty. ...
Trump to hike global tariffs to 15% from 10%, 'effective immediately'
CNBC· 2026-02-21 16:44
Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15% effective immediately, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his previous "reciprocal" tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Increase Details - The new tariffs will apply to various countries that Trump claims have been "ripping" off the U.S. for decades [2]. - Trump indicated that additional tariffs may be implemented in the coming months, as the administration will determine and issue new legally permissible tariffs [3]. Group 2: Supreme Court Ruling Context - The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump wrongfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose his tariffs [3][4]. - The ruling requires that any extension of temporary levies, such as the 10% tariff initially imposed, must receive congressional approval [4]. Group 3: Presidential Response - Trump criticized the Supreme Court's decision, labeling it as "ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American," and specifically targeted Justices Gorsuch and Barrett for their votes [4].
Markets Weekly Outlook - The Gavel Falls On Global Tariffs As Inflationary Fears Return To The Fold
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-21 03:40
Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]
X @BBC News (World)
BBC News (World)· 2026-02-21 03:28
How will Trump's new 10% global tariffs work and what's next? https://t.co/LpTQxsWuCb ...
SCOTUS Strikes Down Tariffs, West Virginia Sues Apple | Bloomberg Tech 2/20/2026
Bloomberg Technology· 2026-02-20 19:23
ED: WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG TECH," IN THE LAST HOUR THE U.S. SUPREME COURT HAS STRUCK DOWN PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SWEEPING GLOBAL TARIFFS. BLOOMBERG IS REPORTING THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS A BACKUP PLAN AND HAS LABELED THE DECISION A DISGRACE. WE WILL GET TO MARKETS AND SUMMARIZE THE REACTION.EQUITIES SURGED, PARTICULARLY TECHNOLOGY STOCKS. THE NASDAQ 100 AND THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX CONTINUE TO PUSH TO SESSION HIGHS. BONDS FELL, THE DOLLAR FELL, PARTICULARLY 10 YEAR YIELD UP TO BASIS POINTS AT 4.09%.30 YE ...
Trump: All national security tariffs remain in place, adding extra 10% on existing global tariffs
MSNBC· 2026-02-20 19:14
And even as I was pointed out before, even thousands of victories over the years. To the contrary, the Supreme Court did not overrule tariffs. They merely overruled a particular use of IEPA tariffs.And essentially it's used to get a fee. I can do anything I want with AIPA, anything. I just can't charge anybody for it.I could license. I just can't charge them. It's ridiculous, but it's okay because we have other ways, numerous other ways.The ability to block, embargo, restrict, license or impose any other co ...
LIVE: Trump holds a news conference after the Supreme Court rules against global tariffs
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-20 17:37
LIVE: Trump holds a news conference after the Supreme Court rules against global tariffs #youtube #Trump #whitehouse #news About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life. - Get the latest news and data at finance.yahoo.com - Download the Yahoo Finance app on Apple (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) or Android (https://bit.ly/3t8UnXO) - Follow Ya ...
Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S.-Iran Tensions, U.S. Data in Focus
WSJ· 2026-02-20 17:34
Growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran will continue to be a major focus for investors in the week ahead, as will be the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's global tariffs. ...