Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are increasing safe-haven demand, particularly for Gold, as investors remain nervous about trade policies [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate a reluctance to cut interest rates until clear signs of declining inflation are observed, which is causing concern among investors [2][3] - Recent comments from key Fed policymakers reinforce the stance that there is no urgency to reduce rates due to persistent inflation [3] Group 2 - The US dollar is weakening amid trade uncertainties, which is contributing to rising Gold prices [4] - The imposition of a 10% tariff on non-exempt imports by the US has heightened market fears regarding retaliatory measures and potential disruptions to global supply chains [5] - The combination of a weaker dollar and trade policy concerns is providing upward momentum for Gold prices [5]

Uh, news is breaking. Steve, can you fix it for us. Steve Leeman has some comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.Steve, what what is it. >> It depends on what you think is broken, Joe. But I can tell you that Fed Governor Chris Waller is on the fence about a March uh hike or a pause.He says data showing an improving labor market, but pol that may tilt his view toward a pause, but there could be an equal argument for cutting if job weakness continues. big question about whether January was ...

Core Insights - The FTSE 100 has shown strong performance in 2026, rising 7.69% year-to-date and 22.75% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, which is down 0.24% year-to-date but up 12.16% over the past year [1][10] Market Trends - Rising geopolitical tensions and U.S. market volatility related to AI concerns have led investors to reassess their U.S. exposure and shift away from American securities [2][3] - The "AI scare" has heightened investor anxiety, particularly affecting the S&P 500 due to its heavy concentration in the information technology sector, prompting a rotation away from U.S. equities [3] Sector Performance - The FTSE 100 benefits from a heavier weighting in banks and mining stocks, with limited exposure to big tech and AI-driven companies, contributing to its outperformance compared to the S&P 500 [4] - U.K. large caps are trading at approximately a 40% valuation discount relative to U.S. equities, with U.K. banks showing compelling valuations compared to U.S. peers [5] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global U.K. Composite PMI rose to 53.9 in February, indicating continued economic momentum, marking the strongest level since April 2024 [6] - U.K. retail sales saw a 4.5% year-over-year increase in January, the strongest annual gain in almost four years [7] - The U.K. recorded a £30.4 billion ($40.9 billion) budget surplus in January 2026, a significant improvement from the previous year [8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.K. inflation eased to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England [9][10] - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a March rate cut by the Bank of England increased to nearly 90% [10][11] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider U.K. ETFs such as iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) and Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB) for increased exposure to the U.K. market [12] - Other diversified ETFs with significant U.K. exposure include iShares MSCI Europe Small-Cap ETF (IEUS) and iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) [13]

Is Gold an Investment or a Safe-Haven Asset?It all comes down to whether you believe gold is an investment or a safe-haven asset. If I had asked you in late January, what would you have done if the Fed took one or two rate cuts off the board in 2026, you would have probably said that news was bearish and may have even taken profits in gold. Guess what, the Fed may have said that in some way on January 28 when it released its monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Powell spoke. The reaction: gold topped at ...

Federal Reserve officials appeared surprisingly wary of cutting interest rates when they met last month, with several even suggesting the central bank may need to raise rates if inflation remains stubbornly high. While the minutes of the central bank’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting, released Wednesday, fell far short of suggesting most officials were contemplating the possibility of rate increases, they made clear the Fed is shifting further away from agreeing on another cut. That could put it on a collisio ...

Market Overview - US stocks and bonds experienced small movements amid low trading volumes due to the Presidents' Day holiday and China's Lunar New Year, with futures on the S&P 500 remaining flat and Europe's Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.2% [2][3] - The US inflation data released on Friday was benign, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year, with traders pricing in a strong likelihood of cuts in June and July [2][3] Sector Insights - The sentiment around equities is positive following the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, although there is caution regarding sectors exposed to AI, as there may be significant dispersion in performance [4] - A JPMorgan Chase team highlighted the risks of AI-driven "cannibalization" for certain sectors, including software, business services, and media, suggesting a cautious approach to these stocks [5] - Goldman Sachs has introduced a new investment strategy focusing on software stocks that will benefit from AI adoption while shorting those at risk of being disrupted [6] Earnings and Economic Indicators - The current earnings season shows a growth rate of 13% for companies, contributing to a positive outlook for the S&P 500 [7] - Upcoming economic indicators, including ADP private payrolls and the minutes from the Fed's January meeting, are anticipated to provide further insights into the economic landscape [7] Future Outlook - Bloomberg strategists predict a potential retreat in global equities as the uncertain AI outlook may negatively impact megatech companies and sectors vulnerable to disruption, while bond markets may continue to rally [8]

Inflation and Interest Rates - Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee emphasizes the need for further progress on inflation falling to the Federal Reserve's 2% target before supporting any rate cuts [1][2] - Goolsbee notes that while there are signs of improvement in inflation, concerns remain, particularly regarding persistent services inflation, which is not influenced by tariffs [3][4] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 2.4% increase in prices year-over-year, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.5% [2] Economic Growth and Job Market - Goolsbee highlights the importance of a stable job market, which has remained steady for the past few months, as a factor in considering rate cuts [2] - He suggests that the Fed may have room to lower rates further before reaching a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth [4] Market Expectations - Data from the CME Group indicates that investors perceive a 90% chance that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on March 18 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. jobs report for January complicates President Trump's push for lower interest rates, as the data does not support further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Jobs Data - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, which is stronger than expected [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Stance - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates during the March meeting, influenced by the recent jobs report and comments from voting officials [1] - President Trump has consistently advocated for rate cuts, despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 3: Wage Growth - Wage growth showed signs of firming in January, further complicating the case for additional rate cuts [1] - The combination of job growth and wage increases suggests a resilient economy, which may deter the Fed from lowering rates [1]

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, attributed to the administration's trade policies [1][2] - President Trump predicts the Dow will reach 100,000 by the end of his term, emphasizing his confidence in the market [3] Market Performance - The Dow Jones index rose 3.58% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 increased by 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite index was up by 0.88% [8] - The ETF tracking the Dow Jones, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust, closed 2.48% higher at $501.03 [8] Economic Factors - Analysts noted that cooling inflation and technical rebounds were significant drivers of the recent market rally [3] - Median 1-year inflation expectations reached their lowest levels since early 2025, with expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year [4] - The rally is seen as a reaction to corporate strength rather than political factors, with large tech firms contributing positively to the economy [5] Technical Analysis - Achieving the 100,000 target for the Dow would require a sustained breakout from the technology sector, with the broader market facing resistance [6] - The S&P 500 may struggle to clear the 7,000-point milestone without stronger contributions from the tech sector, particularly software [6] Market Sentiment - The "Buy the Dip" mentality has helped avert a disorderly market process, but upcoming CPI data and labor market conditions remain critical for future performance [7]

Group 1 - Delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data will be the key focus for investors assessing the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - In Europe, GDP data from the eurozone and the U.K. will be closely monitored [1] - Asia is set to experience a week filled with significant growth data and political developments [1]