Given the rise of online investing and commission-free trading, institutional money is no longer the only big player in the market. Retail investors have become a force to be reckoned with. Many investors of all kinds now monitor sentiment among the retail crowd, which often trades much differently than institutions. Retail investors tend to invest on a longer-term basis and are more likely to buy the dip during a big sell-off. According to The Motley Fool's 2026 Investor Outlook and Predictions Report, ...

Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 13, 2026The yield on the 10-year note finished February 13, 2026 at 4.04%, its lowest level since November. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.40%, its lowest level since 2022.The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.## A Long-Term Look at th ...

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.22% on February 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.50% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965 [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [1] - The 10-3 month spread also shows similar patterns, with negative periods leading up to recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11%, one of the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.26% as of January 30, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.87% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.10%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.24% as of January 23, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.60% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, which is often a precursor to recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.18% as of January 9, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.54% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.16%, marking one of its lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished at 4.18% on December 31, 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.47% and the 30-year note at 4.84% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also indicates lead times to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.15%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8]

Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.16% as of December 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.48% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed held rates steady, with the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.21% [7] Yield Curve Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also serves as an indicator for recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks after turning negative, similar to the 10-2 spread [5] - The 10-2 spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [3]

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.19% on December 12, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Trends - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with recent negative spreads observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, impacting mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of December 5, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.79% [1] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) has a significant influence on Treasury yields, with the current FFR at 3.89% [2] Yield Trends - The 30-year Treasury yield reached a high of 5.35% and a low of 0.99%, currently at 4.79%, reflecting a basis point increase of 380 from its low [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated between a high of 5.26% and a low of 0.52%, currently at 4.14%, with a basis point increase of 362 from its low [2] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, often serving as a leading indicator for recessions [5] - The 10-2 spread has been a reliable indicator, with negative spreads typically occurring before recessions, leading to an average of 48 weeks before a recession starts [8][11] Mortgage Rates - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, which have recently declined despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.19% [13] Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [14]