Core Insights - The manufacturing industry experienced 329,000 job separations in October, marking a 0.6% increase from September's 327,000 separations [1] - Job openings rose by 6.5% month-over-month to 410,000, but decreased by about 10% year-over-year from 455,000 [2] - Manufacturing unemployment increased by 18.7% year-over-year to 571,000 individuals, with job losses of 6,000 in September [3] Sector-Specific Trends - The beverage, tobacco, and leather manufacturing sectors gained approximately 3,300 jobs, while nonmetallic mineral products and machinery added 1,500 and 1,300 jobs, respectively [4] - The plastics and rubber products sector faced significant job cuts, losing around 3,500 jobs [4] - The semiconductor and electronic components sector lost about 2,500 workers, and transportation equipment cut 2,400 employees, with half of those from the motor vehicle segment [5] Future Outlook - Job cuts in the transportation equipment sector are anticipated to continue into 2026 due to declining electric vehicle sales, rising costs, and tariffs on materials like aluminum and steel [6] - General Motors is expected to lay off thousands of workers and pause production at its Ultium Cells battery sites starting in January [6] - Tariffs are reportedly discouraging manufacturers from relocating production back to the U.S., particularly in the transportation equipment sector [7]

Treasuries edged lower after a gauge of US job openings topped estimates, highlighting the challenge Federal Reserve policymakers face as they prepare to vote on whether to lower interest rates again this week https://t.co/muRKWz2riD ...

Job Openings Reached Five-Month High In October—As Hiring Slowedhttps://t.co/QKEBZBxAtg https://t.co/ZWHXWwwaNA ...

Hi indeed, Carl. This is October read for Jolts. Uh 7,670,000.That's not a bad number. 7670 actually would be the strongest number going back to well going back to May when we were 70 7.7% million and change. So that's pretty decent.And considering that the expectation was for a number around 7.1% million. So it's definitely better than expected. We're also getting leading economic indicators which have been leading us in a negative lately.This is September read coming in exactly at is matching expectations ...

At the top of the corporate ladder, job openings remain plentiful https://t.co/Se4eWjcJEu ...

Market Overview - The current economy is described as strange, characterized by strong GDP and a soft labor market [1] - History suggests that when the Fed is easing and the economy and earnings are strong, equity returns tend to be favorable, indicating a potentially good environment for stocks [2] Labor Market Analysis - The speed of unemployment rate increase, rather than a specific level, is a key concern for the markets [3] - The overall unemployment level is at 43%, and current state-level data on initial jobless claims does not appear concerning [4] Investment Strategy - The advice is to lean into sectors that are currently performing well [6] - Financials are considered overweight, with expectations of future gains [7] - Despite the momentum in tech, the firm is looking for other ways to play the AI theme, specifically in China [7] AI and Productivity - Since the launch of Chat GPT in October 2022, the stock market is up 70% while job openings are down 30% [10] - There is a potential disconnect between the market's expectation of productivity gains from AI and the current job opening situation [11] - Increased use of AI tools may lead to meaningful public policy conversations about income redistribution [13] China's AI Approach - China offers a cheaper and less crowded way to invest in the AI theme [8] - China's AI approach focuses on efficiency and immediate applications, contrasting with the US focus on building the greatest model possible [9]

September's jobs report. We don't have one thanks to the government shutdown. So, with the data blackout, Wall Street is looking elsewhere for clues, especially as the Fed debates its next interest rate decision later this month.Here are three signs labor market is cooling, even without that official jobs report. Number one, jolts, aka the job openings and labor turnover survey. Job openings are holding steady, but hiring is slowing and fewer people are quitting.That tells us workers feel less confident and ...

Labor Market Analysis - The US government shutdown has resulted in the BLS not releasing labor market data, including the unemployment rate which was expected to be around 43% [1][2] - The Chicago Fed estimates the unemployment rate for September to be 434%, slightly higher than the previous month's 432%, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [2][3][4] - Job openings saw a slight increase from 721 million to 723 million, remaining relatively steady over the past year [7] - Job quits have dropped back down to cycle lows of 19%, suggesting people are less willing to leave their jobs due to fear of not finding new employment [9] - Layoffs remain relatively low, at pre-pandemic levels, which may be contributing to the continued rise of risk assets [10] - Initial claims data was not released this week, but the previous spike to 264000 has since receded [11] - Job postings on Indeed continue to slowly decline [14] - Non-farm private payroll employment from ADP shows negative revisions, with the last month revised to -3000 and this past month at -32000, indicating a potential slowdown [20] - Construction employment is slowing down, with the year-over-year change starting to decrease, though not yet negative [26] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin's current market cycle shows similarities to post-election years like 2013, 2017, and 2021, with a high in August, a low in late September/early October, and a potential rally into a market cycle top [30][31] - The current cycle also resembles 2020, with a Q1/Q2 capitulation low, sideways movement before the 21-week EMA catches up, and a potential Q4 rally [33] - The 50-week moving average is now at $100000, and a weekly close below this level could signal the end of the cycle [35][36]

conference board and Jolts on the tape as well. Let's get to Rick Santelli again. Hey Rick.>> Yes, on Jolts. This is an August read. Openings expected to be right around 7.2% million.A little bit extra horsepower. 7,227,000. That'll be the best number since well just June.But in the rearview mirror, a nice upward revision. Last month originally reported 7,181 becomes 7,208. And it's significant because that now changes the dynamics.That would have been last month, July, the weakest of the year. Moving it to ...

Labor Market - US JOLTS job openings reached 7,227,000 [1] - The job openings exceeded expectations of 7,100,000 [1]