Group 1: Dollar Index and Labor Market - The dollar index rose to a 1.5-week high, finishing up by +0.23%, driven by a stock selloff that increased liquidity demand for the dollar [1] - Challenger's January job cuts rose by +117.8% year-over-year to 108,435, marking the largest amount of job cuts for a January since 2009 [2] - Weekly initial unemployment claims increased by +22,000 to an 8-week high of 231,000, indicating a weaker labor market than the expected 212,000 [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Fed Governor Lisa Cook's hawkish comments suggested risks are tilted toward higher inflation, supporting the dollar despite signs of labor market weakness [1] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro fell by -0.14% as it gave up an early advance due to a stronger dollar, despite the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged [5] - Eurozone December retail sales fell more than expected, while German December factory orders unexpectedly rose, presenting mixed economic signals for the euro [5]

Company Performance - Bristol Myers Squibb & Co. reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $12.50 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $12.281 billion, representing a 1% year-over-year increase [2] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.26, surpassing the consensus of $1.11, although this reflects a 25% decline due to the impacts of acquired IPRD charges and licensing income [2] Market Trends - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 400 points, down 0.86% to 49,073.13, while the NASDAQ dipped 1.03% to 22,669.07, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.91% to 6,820.34 [1] - In commodity markets, oil prices decreased by 2.5% to $63.51, gold fell by 0.9% to $4,907.60, silver dropped 9.4% to $76.455, and copper declined 0.5% to $5.8210 [3]

US job openings unexpectedly fell in December to the lowest level since 2020 and layoffs edged up https://t.co/hq05MuUTxp ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing industry experienced 329,000 job separations in October, marking a 0.6% increase from September's 327,000 separations [1] - Job openings rose by 6.5% month-over-month to 410,000, but decreased by about 10% year-over-year from 455,000 [2] - Manufacturing unemployment increased by 18.7% year-over-year to 571,000 individuals, with job losses of 6,000 in September [3] Sector-Specific Trends - The beverage, tobacco, and leather manufacturing sectors gained approximately 3,300 jobs, while nonmetallic mineral products and machinery added 1,500 and 1,300 jobs, respectively [4] - The plastics and rubber products sector faced significant job cuts, losing around 3,500 jobs [4] - The semiconductor and electronic components sector lost about 2,500 workers, and transportation equipment cut 2,400 employees, with half of those from the motor vehicle segment [5] Future Outlook - Job cuts in the transportation equipment sector are anticipated to continue into 2026 due to declining electric vehicle sales, rising costs, and tariffs on materials like aluminum and steel [6] - General Motors is expected to lay off thousands of workers and pause production at its Ultium Cells battery sites starting in January [6] - Tariffs are reportedly discouraging manufacturers from relocating production back to the U.S., particularly in the transportation equipment sector [7]

Treasuries edged lower after a gauge of US job openings topped estimates, highlighting the challenge Federal Reserve policymakers face as they prepare to vote on whether to lower interest rates again this week https://t.co/muRKWz2riD ...

Job Openings Reached Five-Month High In October—As Hiring Slowedhttps://t.co/QKEBZBxAtg https://t.co/ZWHXWwwaNA ...

Group 1 - The October JOLTS report shows a total of 7,670,000 job openings, exceeding expectations of around 7,100,000, marking the strongest number since May [1] - The leading economic indicators have been trending negatively, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1] - The September reading for leading economic indicators matched expectations, showing a decrease of 0.3%, which is the best reading since July [2] Group 2 - Interest rates are rising globally, with the current rate hovering around 4.17%, and the high yield noted at approximately 4.19% [3] - The upcoming 10-year auction is set for $39 billion, highlighting ongoing interest in government securities despite rising rates [4] - The yield curve is tightening, particularly between two-year and ten-year notes, indicating market adjustments to interest rate changes [4]

Job Market - Job openings at the top of the corporate ladder remain plentiful [1]

Market Overview - The current economy is described as strange, characterized by strong GDP and a soft labor market [1] - History suggests that when the Fed is easing and the economy and earnings are strong, equity returns tend to be favorable, indicating a potentially good environment for stocks [2] Labor Market Analysis - The speed of unemployment rate increase, rather than a specific level, is a key concern for the markets [3] - The overall unemployment level is at 43%, and current state-level data on initial jobless claims does not appear concerning [4] Investment Strategy - The advice is to lean into sectors that are currently performing well [6] - Financials are considered overweight, with expectations of future gains [7] - Despite the momentum in tech, the firm is looking for other ways to play the AI theme, specifically in China [7] AI and Productivity - Since the launch of Chat GPT in October 2022, the stock market is up 70% while job openings are down 30% [10] - There is a potential disconnect between the market's expectation of productivity gains from AI and the current job opening situation [11] - Increased use of AI tools may lead to meaningful public policy conversations about income redistribution [13] China's AI Approach - China offers a cheaper and less crowded way to invest in the AI theme [8] - China's AI approach focuses on efficiency and immediate applications, contrasting with the US focus on building the greatest model possible [9]

September's jobs report. We don't have one thanks to the government shutdown. So, with the data blackout, Wall Street is looking elsewhere for clues, especially as the Fed debates its next interest rate decision later this month.Here are three signs labor market is cooling, even without that official jobs report. Number one, jolts, aka the job openings and labor turnover survey. Job openings are holding steady, but hiring is slowing and fewer people are quitting.That tells us workers feel less confident and ...