February 25, 2026 05:05 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Monthly Tracker: Mixed January Data; Sustainability in Doubt (+) Home sales decline narrower on low base due to CNY calendar effect: CREIS 65-city primary sales volume fell 22% y-y (vs. -36% y-y in December) and 33-city secondary sales volume increased 2% y-y (vs. -33% y-y in December) on a low base. (+) Milder home price decline on seasonality: NBS 70-city primary home prices fell 3.0% y-y and 0.4% m-m (vs. -0.4% m-m in December) and secondary pr ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者李贝贝 上海报道 马年春节假期，楼市整体呈现典型的"假期模式"。据中指研究院统计，受节日返乡、出游及部分城市网 签暂停更新等因素影响，重点城市新房及二手房网签成交量均处于季节性低位。重点21城春节假期 （2.15—2.23）新建商品住宅共网签成交10万平米，相比去年春节假期日均成交量基本持平。 不过，春节期间，部分房企仍主动"抢跑"楼市复苏周期，多地楼盘开启"春节不打烊"模式，通过多元化 促销举措提前锁定置业需求、激活市场活力。中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶向《华夏时报》记者 表示，春节之后，核心城市楼市有望开启"小阳春"温和复苏行情，假期积压需求有望逐步释放。 2月25日午间，上海发出楼市新政，宣布进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策、完善个 人住房房产税政策。其中规定，对在本市缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满3年及以上的非本市户籍居民家 庭或成年单身人士，在执行现有住房限购政策基础上，可在外环内增购1套住房。 房企促销发力，二手房带看升温 春节假期前夕，全国多地密集出台了新一轮房地产市场优化政策，从公积金贷款额度提升、购房补贴发 放到信贷条件放宽，全方位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (CRED) launched at an inopportune time, coinciding with a bear market in real estate, and has since delivered a negative return of 1.6% while managing only $3.1 million in assets, raising liquidity concerns for investors [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Rate Cuts - The real estate sector has been in a downturn, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) losing approximately 24% from its peak in December 2021 to the end of 2025, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from near zero to over 5% starting in March 2022 [2] - The Fed is expected to cut rates in December 2025, with forecasts suggesting further cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to between 3% and 3.25% from the current 3.75% to 4% [2] Group 2: Impact of Lower Rates - Lower interest rates will reduce the cost of debt for property acquisition and development, enhance the attractiveness of REIT dividends compared to Treasury yields, and lower cap rates, thereby boosting property valuations [3] - CRED, which yields just over 4%, will benefit from a falling rate environment, making its income stream more competitive [3] Group 3: CRED's Investment Strategy - CRED allocates about 28% to infrastructure REITs, which are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to traditional property types, providing steady cash flows from long-term leases [4] - However, this defensive positioning may limit upside potential when rates fall, as traditional REITs with higher leverage could benefit more from easing cycles [6] Group 4: Comparison with Alternatives - The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) offers a similar portfolio with lower liquidity risk, charging only 0.07% in annual fees compared to CRED's 0.33%, and has $7 billion in assets, providing greater scale and trading volume [7] Group 5: Future Considerations - The key factor for CRED in 2026 will be whether the Fed implements the expected rate cuts, alongside the performance of its infrastructure-heavy portfolio in capturing recovery opportunities [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Real Estate** sector, highlighting the current market dynamics and sentiment shifts within the industry [2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment**: The property market is experiencing softened sentiment, particularly in the high-end housing segment, indicating potential instability despite previous recovery efforts [2][6]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The effectiveness of government policies aimed at improving living standards and housing demand is questioned, suggesting that these measures may not be sufficient to stabilize the new home market [2][6]. 3. **Investor Outlook**: Investors are advised to remain vigilant for potential supportive housing market policies that could act as catalysts for stock performance, especially during periods of low policy expectations [2][6]. 4. **Earnings Visibility**: Companies such as CRL, C&D, and Seazen are highlighted as key picks due to their strong fundamentals and higher earnings visibility compared to peers [3][6]. 5. **Home Price Trends**: Recent data indicates a decline in home prices in tier-1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which may improve affordability and rental yields, potentially leading to market stabilization [7][6]. 6. **Project Launch Strategies**: Developers are delaying project launches due to subdued sales momentum, with selective price adjustments expected to facilitate sales and capital recycling [7][6]. 7. **Regional Resilience**: Low-tier cities, particularly tier-3 cities in Fujian Province, are showing greater resilience compared to top-tier cities, emphasizing the importance of product positioning [7][6]. 8. **Market Recovery Expectations**: Beike has indicated a potential housing market turnaround by the end of 2026 or early 2027, with a projected normalized Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of RMB 15 trillion [7][6]. Additional Important Points 1. **Sell-Through Rates**: The sell-through rates of key projects launched by various developers are provided, indicating varying performance levels across different companies [15][16]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes valuation metrics for several property developers, with target prices and upside potential highlighted for CR Land, C&D International, and Seazen [27][27]. 3. **Risks Identified**: Key risks to the outlook include the inability to maintain sales momentum, lower-than-expected margins, and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and property-specific policies [27][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Real Estate sector.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 34% growth in core EPS and a 19% increase in core EBITDA for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations across the board [9][15] - Full-year core EPS guidance was raised to $6.25-$6.35 from $6.10-$6.20, reflecting strong year-to-date performance [8][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advisory services revenue grew by 16%, driven by strong performance in leasing and sales [9][10] - Global leasing revenue rose 17%, with U.S. industrial leasing increasing by 27% [10] - Property sales business delivered 28% revenue growth, with notable strength in office, industrial, and data centers [10] - Building Operations & Experience segment saw 11% revenue growth, with significant contributions from data center hyperscalers [11] - Project management segment revenue increased by 19%, supported by strong activity in the U.K., Middle East, and North America [12] - Investment management raised $2.4 billion in new capital, with AUM reaching approximately $156 billion [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined revenue from Japan and India rose more than 30% to nearly $400 million, indicating strong growth potential in these markets [8] - The data center asset type generated nearly $700 million in revenue, a 40% increase compared to Q3 2023 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes its scale and breadth across asset types, client types, and geographies to drive growth and create integrated solutions for clients [7] - Focus on M&A and co-investment into real estate investments, with a patient approach to finding the right targets [20] - The company is building sustainable businesses in the data center sector, anticipating significant growth in this area over the next five years [41][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects a longer, slower recovery in the sales part of the business, with strong pipelines and pent-up demand from both buyers and sellers [24][25] - The outlook for Q4 includes strong activity, but management acknowledges tougher year-over-year comparisons [27] - Management remains optimistic about the facilities management business, citing expanded total addressable market (TAM) due to recent acquisitions [60] Other Important Information - The company will no longer report net revenue but will focus on gross revenue in formal reporting [4] - Free cash flow for the year is expected to be approximately $1.8 billion, with net leverage at 1.2 turns [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did anything get pulled forward from Q4 due to Q3 strength? - Management indicated no significant pull forward across segments, but acknowledged tougher comps in Q4 [18] Question: Can you comment on the M&A pipeline? - Management stated that M&A remains a priority, and they are actively looking for well-operated targets that can benefit from being part of the CBRE platform [20] Question: Where are we in the CRE transaction market recovery? - Management expects a steady recovery in investment sales over the next couple of years, driven by pent-up demand from buyers and sellers [24] Question: How is deal activity in Q4 compared to last year? - Pipelines are strong, with expectations for continued strong activity in leasing and sales [27] Question: Are you appropriately staffed in the advisory segment? - Management believes they are appropriately staffed but are also looking to add talent where necessary [32] Question: What is the outlook for the BOE segment? - Pipelines are strong, with expectations for elevated sales volume in Q4, which should reflect in revenue in the second half of next year [54] Question: How do you view the facilities management business's TAM? - Management believes they have consistently expanded their TAM through various acquisitions and are optimistic about future growth [60] Question: What is the impact of data center development sites? - Management noted that access to power is a constraint for data center development, but they are strategically acquiring and improving land to facilitate this [63] Question: What is the outlook for office leasing? - Management sees broad-based growth in office leasing, with a notable resurgence in gateway markets [66] Question: What is the expectation for EBITDA margins going forward? - Management expects steady margins in advisory and continued margin expansion in BOE and project management segments [75]

Core Investment Performance - Brookfield Corporation has delivered a remarkable 27,000% return over the past 30 years, with an annualized return of 19%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 11% annualized return, turning a $10,000 investment into over $1.8 million [1] Transformative Growth Phase - The company is entering a transformative growth phase, focusing on three global megatrends: AI infrastructure, retirement wealth solutions, and real estate recovery, which are expected to drive significant value creation in the coming decades [2] AI Infrastructure Investment - Brookfield estimates that over $7 trillion needs to be invested globally in the next decade to build AI factories and related infrastructure, which is essential for the widespread adoption of AI technology [3] - The company plans to invest approximately $200 billion in the coming years to establish AI factories across North America and Europe, including a recent $5 billion partnership with Bloom Energy to power these facilities with fuel cells [4] - Brookfield views AI infrastructure as a multi-decade opportunity for high returns and anticipates that this sector will eventually become its largest business, contributing to robust earnings growth [5] Retirement Wealth Solutions - The aging population is creating a widening gap between retirement savings and future income needs, necessitating new wealth solutions for individuals [6] - As a leader in alternative investments with over $1 trillion in assets under management, Brookfield is well-positioned to offer solutions that address retirement income needs, including new products like tailored private equity funds and asset-based finance products [7] - The company is building a wealth solutions business and has acquired several insurance companies to enhance its scale, aiming to provide annuities that offer stable and attractive returns for retirement accounts [8] Real Estate Recovery Strategy - Real estate remains a core aspect of Brookfield's investment strategy, managing over $278 billion in real estate assets across various property types [9] - Despite higher interest rates compressing real estate values, Brookfield has invested over $60 billion into real estate over the past five years, positioning itself to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in the sector [10] Long-term Investment Outlook - Brookfield aims to deliver compound annual returns of 15% or more, a target it has consistently exceeded over the last three decades, supported by its leadership in AI infrastructure, innovative retirement solutions, and a strong real estate platform [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in shares of Douglas Elliman (NYSE: DOUG) due to takeover rumors, indicating a significant interest in the real estate brokerage company [1] - The context of the previous analysis in June highlights the volatility and potential for growth in the company's stock price [1]

Summary of Brookfield Corporation's 2025 Investor Day Company Overview - **Company**: Brookfield Corporation (NYSE: BN) - **Date of Investor Day**: September 10, 2025 - **Key Focus**: Evolution of business strategy, growth opportunities, and financial performance Core Industry Insights - **Investment Strategy**: Emphasis on value investing and access to capital as key drivers of growth [1][2] - **Asset Management**: Growth in assets under management (AUM) to $1 trillion and operating income to $19 billion [4] - **Market Trends**: - AI presents a $7 trillion opportunity [4] - Aging populations increasing demand for wealth products [5] - Real estate recovery is underway, with strong operating fundamentals [6] Financial Performance Highlights - **Earnings Growth**: 22% annualized earnings growth over the past five years, with a target of 25% compound annual growth in the next five years [15][16] - **Capital Raising**: Raised over $95 billion in capital and deployed $135 billion into new investments [18][19] - **Distributable Earnings**: Wealth solutions business generated $1.7 billion in distributable earnings [19] Strategic Initiatives - **AI Investments**: $200 billion investment project in AI infrastructure, expected to be a major business segment within 10 years [5] - **Wealth Solutions**: Targeting $600 billion in assets through integrated investment-led insurance strategies [11][43] - **Real Estate Strategy**: Anticipating $24 billion in capital generation through real estate transactions [42] Growth Projections - **Future Earnings**: Projected growth in distributable earnings to $10.40 per share by the end of the planned period [51] - **Valuation**: Planned value per share expected to grow to $210, reflecting a 16% compound annual growth rate [51] Risk Management and Capital Allocation - **Conservative Balance Sheet**: Focus on maintaining high liquidity and capital efficiency [17][46] - **Capital Allocation Strategy**: Centralized approach to allocate cash flow to areas with the best return potential [46][47] Key Takeaways - **Long-term Growth**: Brookfield is well-positioned to deliver 15% plus returns to shareholders, supported by a diversified earnings stream and strategic capital allocation [53] - **Market Position**: The company has a strong competitive advantage in real estate and wealth solutions, with a focus on sustainable growth and risk management [44][54] Additional Insights - **Carried Interest**: Expected to generate $25 billion in net realized carried interest over the next 10 years, significantly increasing from $4 billion in the past decade [34][36] - **Real Estate Portfolio**: Focus on core and transitional assets, with a strong emphasis on high-quality properties in key global markets [58][59] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during Brookfield Corporation's 2025 Investor Day, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and growth opportunities in the evolving market landscape.

Market Trends - Demand for restaurant space in New York City is exceptionally high, fueling the city's retail real-estate recovery [1]

Group 1 - The broader real estate markets have underperformed compared to the S&P 500, with the Vanguard Real Estate Index (VNQ) closely tracking the S&P 500 before 2022 [1] - The article highlights the importance of data analytics in identifying investment opportunities within the equity markets, particularly in the context of real estate [1] - The focus is on value investing, emphasizing high-quality, long/short mid and small-cap companies as potential investment targets [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific stock recommendations or investment advice, maintaining a neutral stance on the suitability of investments for individual investors [2][3] - There is a clear distinction made regarding the lack of any business relationships with the companies mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2] - The content reflects the author's personal opinions and experiences without any external compensation influencing the analysis [2]