2月9日，美国众议院以395票对2票通过了所谓的护台金融法案，其核心内容是，只要美国总统认定中国大陆的对台行动构成对台岛安全及美国利益的威胁， 就推动将中国排除出G20、国际清算银行等六个国际金融组织。这看起来似乎是个重磅举措，但仔细一看，关键词推动和应当而非必须，并且赋予了总统在 任何情况下暂停或豁免的权利，原因归结为美国国家利益。全球金融的命脉在于SWIFT，而不是G20席位、国际清算银行的出入证。当年俄罗斯因同样的原 因付出了惨痛的代价，这份法案巧妙地避开了SWIFT，实际上就等于承认不能动用它，也无法动用它。 中国的体量以及在全球贸易、结算和供应链中的重要地位，使得如果将中国踢出SWIFT，意味着对全球经济进行一次开膛手术，同时也将直接影响美元的核 心地位，类似于自断经脉。虽然395:2的票数看上去非常震撼，但这并非实质性进展，而是选举季政治表演的需要，两党都要展现对华强硬的姿态，以免被 扣上软弱的帽子。表面上的票数并不等同于有效的政策工具，也不代表着愿意付出实际代价的决心。台北的心态此时颇为微妙，应该高兴才对，但赖清德却 无法笑得出来。他深知，这张票的背后并不代表真正的帮助，对他而言，关键在于美国能 ...

Sanctions Overview - Sanctions are a form of coercion aimed at compelling behavioral changes through economic disruption [1] - Economic sanctions are generally a means to achieve objectives like policy change, regime change, counter-terrorism, or human rights improvements [1][2] - The effectiveness of sanctions in achieving their intended goals is historically low, with success rates estimated at less than 10% [2] Country-Specific Sanction Strategies and Impacts - **Cuba:** The US has maintained a long-standing embargo against Cuba, employing trade blockades and asset freezes, but its effectiveness has been limited due to support from other nations [1] - **Venezuela:** US sanctions on Venezuela, particularly targeting the state-owned oil company PDVSA, have severely impacted the country's economy by restricting access to financial markets and reducing oil revenues [2] - **North Korea:** The UN has imposed extensive sanctions on North Korea due to its nuclear weapons program, but North Korea's self-imposed isolation and illicit activities have reduced the impact of these measures [3] - **Iran:** The US has employed both primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, targeting its nuclear program and energy sector, leading to economic hardship and prompting negotiations at times [4][5] - **Russia:** Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced unprecedented sanctions, including asset freezes, SWIFT restrictions, and trade limitations, significantly impacting its economy [6] Sanction Mechanisms and Countermeasures - **Trade Blockades and Asset Freezes:** These are classic economic sanction tools used to prevent trade and freeze assets within the sanctioning country [1] - **Secondary Sanctions:** These involve threatening entities in other countries to prevent them from doing business with the sanctioned country, increasing the pressure [5] - **Circumventing Sanctions:** Sanctioned countries often seek alternative buyers, engage in smuggling, develop shadow banking systems, or use cyber warfare to mitigate the impact of sanctions [3][4][6] Unintended Consequences and Ethical Considerations - Sanctions often disproportionately affect the general population of the sanctioned country, leading to humanitarian crises and potentially strengthening authoritarian regimes [3][7] - The use of sanctions can lead to "sanction fatigue," where the initial impact diminishes over time as sanctioned countries adapt and find alternative solutions [7]

Market Disruption - SWIFT processes $2800 billion daily, but its infrastructure is outdated, leading to high costs and long settlement times, creating opportunities for disruption [1] - Stablecoin payments experienced a significant surge, increasing by 806 times from $335 thousand in 2022 to $28 billion in 2025 [1]

Market Trends - Live talking markets are discussed [1] - CZ (Changpeng Zhao) made an "Uptober" call, suggesting a potentially positive outlook for the crypto market in October [1] - SWIFT integration onto Ethereum (ETH) is being explored [1] - Prediction markets are a topic of interest [1]

Industry Trend - SWIFT explores on-chain applications [1]

Market Speculation & Potential Risks - XRP tokens are speculated to be sold off to retail investors with a perceived value exceeding their actual worth [1] - The perceived value is based on the illusion of scarcity and potential adoption by global banking systems [1] - There are rumors that XRP could potentially replace SWIFT, driven by alleged deals made by banking systems over a decade [1] Unverified Claims - The report contains an unsubstantiated claim about the president's relationship with Brad Garlicmouse [1]

Stablecoin Market & Geopolitics - A7A5, the first ruble-pegged stablecoin, moved $93 billion in just 4 months [1] - Stablecoins are now a tool in geopolitics [1] - A7A5 and Grinex (a new Kyrgyz exchange) stepped in after the US closed Garantex, Russia's CEX [1] A7A5 Stablecoin Details - Launched in Kyrgyzstan, outside Western reach [2] - Backed by ruble deposits in Promsvyazbank (sanctioned) [2] - Runs on Tron & Ethereum [2] - Used as a bridge to USDT & cash out abroad, bypassing SWIFT & sanctions [2] Transaction Analysis - Most flows are weekday, done during office hour, reportedly trade payments or state linked actors [1] - It's not retail driven [1]