Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical fluctuations of the US dollar system, highlighting significant events such as the "Nixon Shock" in 1971 and the "Plaza Accord" in 1985, and suggests that a new "dollar shock" may be approaching due to increased policy volatility during the Trump era [5][6]. Group 1 - Since the mid-20th century, the US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant currency, but history shows that no hegemonic position is eternal [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" in August 1971, when President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar's fixed exchange rate with gold, marked the end of the Bretton Woods system and initiated a shift towards floating exchange rates globally [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" set the stage for subsequent economic challenges, including stagflation and financial turmoil over the following decade [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Stablecoins and Global Monetary Changes Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the global monetary changes and the emergence of stablecoins as a significant financial instrument in the evolving monetary landscape [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Nature of Money**: Money is defined as a social consensus accounting symbol, which does not necessarily need to be issued by centralized entities. The key is the belief and trust in its value [4][5]. 2. **Evolution of Gold Pricing**: Since 2022, the pricing framework for gold has changed significantly, making it unlikely to revert to previous models based on real interest rates [1]. 3. **Emergence of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins have gained attention due to regulatory developments in the US and Hong Kong, emerging as a product of the global monetary changes and the trend towards decentralization [2][3]. 4. **Trust and Credit**: The trust in stablecoins is primarily based on the credit of fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, which underpins most stablecoins [6][9]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market cap of approximately $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total new currency market [20]. 6. **Types of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms for maintaining value stability [17][18]. 7. **Impact on US Dollar**: The development of stablecoins is seen as enhancing the dominance of the US dollar rather than undermining it, as they facilitate access to dollar liquidity in regions with unstable currencies [10][27]. 8. **Regulatory Environment**: Recent US regulations require that for every dollar of stablecoin issued, there must be an equivalent dollar in compliant assets, which aims to enhance trust and stability in the market [25][26]. 9. **Short-term Debt Market**: While stablecoins may increase demand for short-term US debt, their overall impact on interest rates is limited, as the Federal Reserve primarily influences these rates [11][28]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term development of stablecoins is expected to be significant, particularly in cross-border payments, but their growth will depend on the underlying trust in the US dollar and the broader economic context [14][29]. Other Important Insights - **Global Trade and Monetary Systems**: The interconnectedness of global trade and monetary systems means that changes in one area can significantly impact the other, particularly regarding trust in currencies [3][13]. - **Emerging Markets**: Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important in emerging markets, where they provide a means for individuals and businesses to access stable currency alternatives [24]. - **Misconceptions about Stablecoins**: Common misconceptions include the belief that stablecoins weaken the dollar and that all currencies can issue stablecoins, which is not the case as most are dollar-pegged [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding stablecoins and their role in the evolving global monetary landscape.

Group 1 - The core issue of the current economic problems in the United States is fundamentally rooted in the economy itself, affecting various sectors such as military, technology, education, diplomacy, and politics [4] - The apparent debt crisis in the U.S. is a symptom of deeper issues, including a credit crisis, sovereign currency challenges, and a significant imbalance between production and consumption [6] - The unique position of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system allows the U.S. to "profit without effort," but this advantage can also backfire during economic crises, leading to the outsourcing of domestic issues globally [9][11] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the dollar's circulation and manipulating interest rates to alleviate domestic economic pressures by transferring them to other countries [11][14] - The U.S. has historically pursued deindustrialization, weakening its economic resilience and relying heavily on global procurement, which has led to a significant increase in dollar printing through quantitative easing [16] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the economic situation in the U.S., leading to high unemployment and inflation, while also complicating the ability to transfer economic pressure internationally [18] Group 3 - The U.S. is likely to target specific countries to offload its economic burdens, with the U.K. being a close ally unlikely to be exploited, while Russia presents challenges due to its energy exports and independent economic system [20][22] - Germany and France, as leading economies in the EU, are vulnerable to U.S. economic pressures, especially in the wake of the pandemic, which could strain transatlantic relations [25] - China, as the second-largest economy, poses a significant challenge for the U.S. in terms of economic exploitation due to its self-sufficiency and the complexity of U.S.-China economic ties [25][27] Group 4 - Japan's economic situation is precarious, as it remains heavily dependent on the U.S., making it a potential target for economic pressure [27] - The looming risk of U.S. debt default presents severe challenges, but there remains an opportunity for recovery through equal dialogue and international cooperation [29]

从贸易战到被称为"广场协议2.0"的"海湖庄园协议"发布，这背后是否暗示着美元体系陷入了困境？ 2024年11月，被称为"海湖庄园协议"的一份报告正式发布，这份报告旨在通过高关税、美元贬值、债务置换与多边货币谈判、安全保护费等手段，重构全球 经济治理格局。 2025年7月5日，在"2025中美贸易战略重构研讨会"上，12位国内高校专家学者围绕"'海湖庄园协议'对全球经贸重构的影响与中国应对"展开深入探讨。多位 专家对"美元体系的内在困境"做了分析和解答，并回答了美国金融权利能否被撼动这一关键问题。研讨会由对外经济贸易大学、新京报社和全国高校国际贸 易学科协作组联合主办。 美元的金融地位并非由贸易差决定 中山大学国际金融学院院长黄新飞教授指出，美元地位的核心逻辑不取决于美国贸易的顺逆差，而是由制度输出能力、军事安全承诺与资产稳定供给三者构 成。 主办单位:对外 hi 承办单位:对外 N 中山大学国际金融学院院长黄新飞教授在研讨会上发言。摄/新京报记者 王贵彬 黄新飞表示，美元储备地位的内在困境，是在布雷顿森林体系确立美元储备货币地位后，美元向全球提供流动性的同时，也必然造成持续的贸易与经常账户 赤字，"美元的需 ...

Group 1 - The United States has the largest consumer market in the world, supported by a robust dollar system, allowing it to initiate trade wars globally [1][5] - Despite China's large population of 1.4 billion and being the second-largest economy, its per capita income remains low, indicating a significant gap compared to developed countries [3] - The American consumer culture emphasizes immediate gratification, leading to high spending on leisure and entertainment, while essential goods are relatively inexpensive [1][3] Group 2 - The dollar system functions as a global financial network, facilitating international trade and foreign exchange transactions, which reinforces the U.S.'s dominant position in the world economy [5] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds is widely purchased by countries around the world, further solidifying the dollar's status and the U.S.'s economic influence [5] - The current dollar system is unlikely to change in the near future, maintaining the U.S.'s unshakeable global standing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's push for a legal stablecoin plan, suggesting it may undermine the Federal Reserve and shift the currency issuance power to private enterprises closely linked to Trump's family [2][5][12]. Group 1: Legalization of Stablecoins - Trump's team is promoting a legal stablecoin plan as part of the economic strategy for the 2024 campaign, aiming to integrate it into the dollar system [2][4]. - The stablecoins currently in circulation are primarily dollar-pegged, but this is seen as a facade, as they are actually backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, which rely on the Federal Reserve's credit [5][7]. Group 2: Implications for the Dollar System - The move to legalize stablecoins is perceived as a way to transfer the dollar's currency issuance authority from the Federal Reserve to private companies, many of which have ties to Trump's family [5][12]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar-backed stablecoins [7][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Dynamics - The article draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and historical instances in China, suggesting that the U.S. is attempting to create a new financial order while other countries, particularly China, are distancing themselves from the dollar system [10][12]. - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to under $700 billion indicates a significant shift away from reliance on the dollar [10]. Group 4: Future of Stablecoins - There is speculation that stablecoins may eventually detach from the dollar and anchor to other assets, leading to a shift in global financial dynamics from rule-based to trust-based systems [12][14]. - The emergence of cryptocurrency companies linked to Trump's camp suggests a potential privatization of the global financial order, raising questions about the trustworthiness of such initiatives [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in international oil and gold prices due to geopolitical events, particularly the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has led to a sharp decline in prices after a period of increase [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell from nearly $80 per barrel to below $70 per barrel, with a notable drop of 9% on June 24, causing concerns for investors who had taken long positions [1]. - The volatility in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, with the last similar significant fluctuation occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 [1]. - The U.S. has become a major oil supplier, with shale oil production costs ranging from $50 to $60 per barrel, while Middle Eastern and Russian production costs are lower, leading to a more diversified global oil supply [2][3]. - The likelihood of oil prices returning to the highs of nearly $150 per barrel seen in 2008 is low, as increased production from various regions would likely stabilize prices if they rise significantly above production costs [3]. Gold Market Analysis - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events, while long-term trends indicate a rise in gold prices due to global distrust in the U.S. dollar and ongoing purchases by central banks [3]. - The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has led to a short-term pullback in gold prices, presenting potential investment opportunities in gold-related assets such as gold mining stocks and ETFs [3]. - Historically, gold or gold ETFs tend to reach new highs later than gold mining stocks, suggesting that for long-term investments, gold itself or ETFs may be a more stable choice [3].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Significant fluctuations in oil prices were observed, with Brent crude dropping from nearly $80 per barrel to below $70 per barrel, reflecting a 12.5% decline [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has led to volatility in oil prices, reminiscent of the drastic changes seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 [1][2] - The U.S. has emerged as a key oil supplier, with shale oil production costs ranging from $50 to $60 per barrel, contributing to a more diversified global oil supply landscape [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events, while long-term trends indicate a rise in gold prices due to global distrust in the dollar system and increased central bank purchases [4] - The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has resulted in a short-term pullback in gold prices, presenting potential investment opportunities in gold-related assets such as mining stocks and ETFs [4] - Historically, gold and ETFs tend to reach new highs later than mining stocks, suggesting a more stable long-term investment strategy in gold [4]

文/李悦 尽管特朗普政府在5月宣布暂停对主要贸易伙伴加征关税90天，并启动密集谈判，但市场对美元霸权 根基的质疑声浪未减。 当前， 美元指数 持续下挫， 跌破100关口，创2023年以来新低；10年期美债收益率 持续 攀升， 资金出逃迹象显著。这场由贸易政策驱动的资本流动剧变，正迫使市场重新审视美元体系的韧性。 面对美元指数跌破100，市场关于"美元崩盘"的讨论升温。 对此，刘锋指出，当前 讨论暴露出对国 际货币体系运行逻辑的认知偏差。他 提出 三个核心问题：崩盘的参照系是什么？崩盘的具体路径如 何演绎？崩盘后的替代性国际货币体系将如何构建？ 刘锋 表示 ， 当前美国经济面临结构性挑战，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级即为例证，但这并不等同 于美元体系崩溃。 刘锋称，美国目前处于发展下行阶段，包括中国在内的许多国家不愿意持有美债。然而，若不购买美 债，资金又该投向何处？ 2025年，全球资本市场正经历一场历史性转折。美元指数跌破100关口、美债遭遇自2001年以来最 严重的抛售潮，曾经被视为"避险天堂"的美元资产，正遭遇历史性的信任危机。 而这场肇始于 华盛顿的信任危机，终将重塑全球资本分配逻辑 ， 历史底部区域的A ...

全球金融市场近期出现了一个值得注意的现象：尽管十年期和三十年期美债收益率屡屡突破4.5%的"心肌梗死级别"，黄金等避险资产却未出现预期中的同步 下跌。这一情形，反映了市场对美元信用的复杂预期，揭示了美元体系的深层次矛盾。 美元心脏与准备金市场：在金融体系中，"美元心脏"特指美联储主导的准备金市场。该市场的核心职能是通过公开市场操作调节银行体系的流动性。若准备 金不足或回购市场失效，整个金融体系的流动性将受到严重冲击，类似于人体心脏出现"心肌梗死"。举个例子，美联储通过国债买卖调节货币供应量，这一 操作的规模与频率直接影响银行间市场的资金成本。 国债市场的波动：与准备金市场的"造血系统"作用不同，国债市场的波动更多反映了市场情绪。十年期和三十年期美债收益率反映的是国债二级市场的供需 关系，受到经济预期、通胀水平、国际资本流动等多重因素的影响。例如，2025年5月，中美贸易谈判达成阶段性缓和成果，市场风险偏好上升，导致长期 国债收益率上行。然而，短端利率却因降准预期持续下行，呈现出典型的"股债跷跷板"效应。 准备金市场与国债市场的本质差异：准备金市场与国债市场的本质差异在于，前者是美元信用的"造血系统"，稳定性至 ...