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“AI竞赛我们必须赢,未来要像美元一样立于美国体系”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-10-08 11:16
CNBC称,黄仁勋所说的"美国技术体系",不仅包括英伟达的芯片,还涵盖微软、亚马逊和苹果等美国 科技巨头的产品。他补充说:"我们希望全世界都使用Windows,希望全世界都基于亚马逊云服务和苹 果的生态系统进行开发。" 黄仁勋认为,如果美国政府收紧对华出口限制,将对美国企业不利,"全面禁令不利于美国企业的长期 利益。它可能会伤害中国企业,但从长期来看,对美国企业的打击更大。" 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋 视频截图 【文/观察者网 陈思佳】中国人工智能(AI)技术的快速发展,已引起美国对于失去领先地位的"焦 虑"。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)10月7日报道,英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋当天接受采访时 称,美国需要赢得与中国的"AI竞赛",这样未来AI技术才能建立在像美元一样的"美国体系"之上。 黄仁勋称:"美国总统特朗普希望让美国在AI竞赛中获胜,问题在于要如何做到?如何确保美国企业能 够得到最先进的英伟达技术和芯片技术?另一方面,我们也要意识到,要在AI领域获得成功,就要让 全球都建立在美国的技术体系之上。" 他表示,就像美国希望世界建立在美元体系上一样,美国也希望世界建立在美国技术体系之上。 面对美国的打压 ...
未来20年美元体系还值得信赖吗
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 05:00
Group 1 - The reliability of the US dollar system faces systemic challenges over the next 20 years, with its global dominance likely to weaken [1] - Trust in the dollar is eroding due to policy uncertainties, including unpredictable tariffs and fiscal imbalances, which undermine the pricing anchor of dollar assets [1] - The US's unilateral withdrawal from international agreements and threats of debt default challenge the foundational contract of US monetary hegemony established post-World War II [1] Group 2 - The dollar's status as a core safe asset is being questioned, with the US national debt expected to exceed $44 trillion by 2025, leading to a downgrade in sovereign credit ratings [1] - The proportion of North American importers refusing to accept dollars from overseas suppliers is projected to rise from 23% in 2024 to 60% [3] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.4% as emerging economies accelerate their divestment from US Treasury bonds [3] Group 3 - The trend towards de-dollarization is irreversible, with predictions that the dollar's hegemonic status may end within 20 years [5] - The dollar is transitioning from being viewed as a "risk-free asset" to a "risk asset," prompting investors to diversify into alternatives like gold and the renminbi [6] - The internationalization of the renminbi is gaining momentum, with cross-border payments in renminbi expected to increase by 23% in 2024, surpassing the dollar as the primary currency for cross-border transactions [3]
美联储主席鲍威尔终于不装了,直接给全球市场泼了一盆冷水!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 03:53
黄金价格倒是很坚挺,一度冲到2450美元,这说明全球的聪明钱都在悄悄地给美元体系投不信任票。地 缘冲突、美国自己那还不完的债,都让大家觉得还是抱着金疙瘩睡觉才踏实。 美元这么强势,全球的钱都往美国跑,对我们A股肯定有影响。流动性紧张了,那些纯靠概念炒作的股 票就危险了。 这时候,就得看我们自己的企业争不争气,有没有真正的核心技术和盈利能力,这才是硬道理。 联储主席鲍威尔警告说资产估值太高,泡沫吹得有点离谱。这话一出,意味着以前那种靠印钱就能躺着 赚钱的日子,彻底结束了。 为什么美联储敢这么硬气?因为美国经济现在很奇怪,一边是就业市场看着还行,失业率不高,另一边 是通胀死活降不下来。这就给了鲍威尔底气,把利率一直挂在高位,摆明了就是要先摁死通胀,哪怕误 伤经济也在所不惜。 这种"更高更久"的利率环境,对全球资产就是一场大洗牌。那些靠着PPT和梦想撑起来的美国科技股, 好日子到头了。以前资金泛滥,什么故事都能炒上天,现在水龙头一关,大家才发现谁在裸泳,资金都 跑去买那些真正能赚钱、有分红的实在公司了。 全球资本市场的大退潮,才刚刚开始。 ...
特朗普没有想到,中方连抛3820亿美债后,日本也投下“金融核弹”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 03:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating financial rivalry between China and the United States, particularly in the context of recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and subsequent actions by China and Japan [1][3]. - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $53.7 billion (approximately 382 billion RMB) in the past four months, indicating a strategic shift in its foreign asset management [3][5]. - Japan's unexpected decision to gradually sell its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a major disruption, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and reflecting a shift in Japan's monetary policy due to persistent inflation pressures [5]. Group 2 - The article notes that the recent phone communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders suggest a potential thaw in relations, yet the financial sector remains a battleground, with China actively diversifying its foreign exchange assets and increasing gold reserves [3]. - The U.S. is facing dual pressures from both China and Japan, with the prolonged intervals in trade negotiations indicating a need for the Trump administration to pivot from confrontation to pragmatic cooperation to alleviate economic pressures [5]. - The ongoing financial rivalry is poised to reshape the global economic landscape, prompting countries to closely monitor developments and adjust their economic strategies accordingly [5].
俄罗斯将发行巨额熊猫债,中国人愿意为其买单吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 03:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Russia is preparing to issue panda bonds in the Chinese financial market as a response to economic challenges and geopolitical dynamics stemming from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. - Panda bonds are debt instruments issued by foreign entities in China, denominated in RMB, and have become a significant financing channel for international companies in the Chinese capital market [1][3]. - The issuance of these bonds reflects Russia's strategic shift towards the Chinese capital market due to the severe economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, which have cut off Russia's access to international financial systems [3][9]. Group 2 - The funds raised through panda bonds could either be used for military purposes or for infrastructure development in the energy sector, which would significantly impact the investment outlook [3][7]. - Russia possesses substantial energy resources, ranking sixth in proven oil reserves and first in natural gas reserves globally, making energy development projects a potentially stable investment opportunity [7]. - If the funds are allocated to major energy projects like the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, it could enhance energy cooperation between China and Russia while meeting China's growing energy demands [7].
为什么美国全面转向加密货币(比特币+稳定币),而以中国为代表的非美国家全面转向黄金?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 09:09
Group 1 - The core argument is that the U.S. is shifting towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins, while non-U.S. countries, represented by China, are increasingly investing in gold as a means to detach from the dollar system [1][11] - The U.S. has allegedly depleted its usable gold reserves, leading to a reliance on digital currencies to sustain the dollar's value [1][5] - Non-U.S. countries are avoiding the "digital dollar trap" and are accumulating gold, which is viewed as a more stable asset [1][10] Group 2 - The dollar system has become a fragile structure since the U.S. decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971, leading to a cycle of dollar output and debt input that is now breaking down [2][3] - Central banks, including those of China, Saudi Arabia, and Japan, are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a shift in global financial dynamics [3][4] - The U.S. has a potential solution to this imbalance through the revaluation of gold, which could significantly alter its debt-to-GDP ratio [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. holds 8,133.5 tons of gold, but it has not been properly audited for decades, leading to a discrepancy between its book value and market value [5][6] - The fear of revealing the true state of U.S. gold reserves prevents the government from revaluing gold, as it could expose potential shortages or mismanagement [6][7] - The U.S. is resorting to digital currencies as a temporary fix, despite the risks associated with losing control over monetary policy and inflation [8][9] Group 4 - Non-U.S. countries are stockpiling gold as a means of financial sovereignty, with China increasing its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months and other nations following suit [10][11] - Gold is seen as a reliable asset that does not depend on the U.S. financial system, making it a preferred choice for countries looking to secure their financial future [10][11] - The ongoing "currency cold war" suggests a fundamental shift in global financial power, with one system undermining itself while another fortifies its position [11]
FT中文网精选:美元的“超额特权”还能维持多久?
日经中文网· 2025-08-18 02:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical fluctuations of the US dollar system, highlighting significant events such as the "Nixon Shock" in 1971 and the "Plaza Accord" in 1985, and suggests that a new "dollar shock" may be approaching due to increased policy volatility during the Trump era [5][6]. Group 1 - Since the mid-20th century, the US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant currency, but history shows that no hegemonic position is eternal [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" in August 1971, when President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar's fixed exchange rate with gold, marked the end of the Bretton Woods system and initiated a shift towards floating exchange rates globally [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" set the stage for subsequent economic challenges, including stagflation and financial turmoil over the following decade [6].
7月末中国外汇储备为32922亿美元
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-08 02:32
Core Insights - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, with gold reserves at 73.96 million ounces [1] - The increase in the US dollar index in July, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations, led to fluctuations in global financial asset prices, impacting the valuation of China's foreign exchange reserves [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month, maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation [1] Economic Context - The National Foreign Exchange Administration believes that China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with advantages and resilience that support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] - The ongoing uncertainty in global trade and geopolitical factors is expected to drive central banks and investors to continue increasing their gold investments, providing ongoing support for gold prices [1]
稳定币能拯救美元吗?还是只能推迟美元的崩溃?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-01 05:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Tether (USDt), the largest stablecoin, on the US dollar system, suggesting that while it creates new demand for US Treasury bonds, it may only delay the inevitable decline of the dollar rather than save it [1][15]. Group 1: Tether's Financial Performance - Tether is highlighted as potentially the most profitable company in business history, generating $13.7 billion in profit last year with only 165 employees, resulting in over $83 million in profit per employee [2][5]. - The company's unique business model provides instant, global access to digital dollars for anyone with a smartphone, contributing to its success [5]. Group 2: User Growth and Market Impact - Tether claims to have over 400 million users, adding 30 million each quarter, with significant popularity in emerging markets like Argentina, Venezuela, and Turkey, where local currencies are depreciating [8][9]. - The article compares Tether to a retail version of the offshore dollar, noting that while the European dollar market is significantly larger, Tether is rapidly growing and providing similar functions for retail and small institutional investors [8][9]. Group 3: Support for US Treasury Market - Tether has become the seventh-largest holder of US Treasury bonds, surpassing entire countries like Canada and Switzerland, by investing its reserves in short-term US debt [10]. - The company has established a partnership with Cantor Fitzgerald to manage large-scale redemptions, ensuring liquidity and stability during high withdrawal demands [11][12]. Group 4: Limitations and Future Outlook - Despite Tether's contributions to the demand for US Treasury bonds, the article warns that this support is limited compared to the US government's annual debt needs of nearly $9 trillion [14]. - The author concludes that while Tether may provide temporary stability for the dollar, it does not alter the long-term trajectory of the dollar's decline due to unsustainable government spending [15].
刘煜辉:稳定币可能成为美元体系延续其货币主导地位的“自救型工具”
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-07-29 08:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. fiat currency system is facing structural risks, with stablecoins being positioned as a key mechanism to rebuild the credibility of the dollar system [1][2] - Long-term industrial hollowing has led to a high dependence of the U.S. economy on global capital inflows, while rising inflation and interest rates have increased fiscal burdens, creating significant debt rollover pressure [1] - A large proportion of current U.S. fiscal revenue is allocated to servicing national debt interest, indicating a declining ability for fiscal self-balancing and increased volatility in dollar and U.S. Treasury asset values [1] Group 2 - The stablecoin legislation is viewed as a systematic response to the challenges faced by the dollar system, with stablecoins essentially being "dollar cash" on the blockchain, backed by compliant assets, primarily U.S. Treasuries [1] - This design transforms the demand for stablecoins in the blockchain market into real purchasing power for U.S. Treasuries, thereby introducing new external support for the imbalanced dollar credit system [1] - Recent global financial market recognition of the institutional logic behind stablecoin legislation has led to a balance in the buying and selling forces in the U.S. Treasury market, with significant recovery in U.S. stock and crypto asset prices [2]