美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京上周五的历史性峰会，曾一度引发了人们对结束俄乌冲突取得进展以 及俄罗斯石油全球流量可能增加的期望。 然而，在两位世界领导人于阿拉斯加会晤后未能就停火达成决定性协议，这两方面的兴奋情绪都逐渐消 散。 特朗普在简短的讲话中表示，他与普京举行了"一次非常富有成效的会晤"，并取得了"一些进展"，但在 会谈期间没有达成任何协议。普京则形容讨论是"建设性的"，他与特朗普都暗示在某些问题上达成了共 识，但没有提供细节。 尽管那些期盼停火或和平协议的人可能会感到失望，但会前的大肆宣传清楚地表明了一点：尽管在俄罗 斯2022年因进入乌克兰的军事行动后受到国际制裁，但其在全球能源市场中仍是一个强国。 SPI资产管理公司的执行合伙人Stephen Innes表示，特朗普与普京的对决"被塑造成一场高风险的摊牌"。 他指出，理论上，这本可以重塑制裁版图，使之对俄罗斯有利。 从长远来看，这次峰会不仅仅是为了明确俄罗斯能源出口的流动情况，更多的是关乎"俄罗斯能源作为 全球能源结构一部分的长期角色"，Tortoise Capital的高级投资组合经理Rob Thummel说。 特朗普本也可能从中受益。他在竞选期 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Putin is scheduled for 3:30 AM Beijing time on the 16th, attracting global attention [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that if the meeting does not progress well, the US may increase sanctions on Russia or impose secondary tariffs, urging Europe to join in these sanctions [1][3] - In 2022, EU member states purchased 31.62 billion cubic meters of Russian pipeline gas and 20.05 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG, accounting for 19% of their total gas consumption [3] Group 2 - The proposal to stop importing Russian energy was vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia, with Hungary citing concerns over sovereignty and financial penalties for breaking contracts with Russia [5] - Bessent's actions appear to pressure both Europe and Russia, indicating that Russia may face financial losses if it cannot sell gas to Europe [7] - Trump estimates a 25% chance of failure for the upcoming meeting, emphasizing the importance of a second meeting that may include Ukrainian President Zelensky [9] Group 3 - The Russian side does not expect to sign any documents during the meeting, with results to be announced in a press conference [11] - A Pew Research Center poll indicates that nearly 60% of Americans lack confidence in Trump's ability to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a 7% increase from previous polling [13] - European and Ukrainian attitudes favor freezing the conflict and oppose territorial exchanges, with Germany emphasizing the need for security guarantees in any resolution [15] Group 4 - The US is attempting to balance various positions regarding the conflict, acknowledging the reality of Russia's control over parts of Ukraine while facing opposition from Europe and Ukraine [17] - Over 60% of Americans oppose Trump's tariff policies, and his approval rating has dropped to 38%, reflecting public concern over the potential outcomes of the meeting [19][30]

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian President Putin and US envoy Witkoff lasted nearly three hours, discussing the Ukraine crisis and future US-Russia strategic cooperation [2] - Witkoff's visit marks his fifth trip to Russia this year, with a focus on achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine by the deadline set by Trump on August 8 [2] - Russia is considering proposals for a potential air ceasefire with Ukraine, which may involve halting drone and missile strikes, although a comprehensive ceasefire seems unlikely due to ongoing military actions [2] Group 2 - The US is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia if no agreement is reached to end the Ukraine conflict, including a potential 100% tariff and a 500% secondary tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil [3] - Following the meeting, Trump signed an executive order imposing additional tariffs on goods from India, which has been purchasing discounted Russian oil despite US warnings [3] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on a shipping network controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, which includes over 50 entities and vessels related to Russian oil [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the United States and Russia regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, highlighting President Trump's criticism of Russia's actions and the potential for new sanctions against Russia [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Statements - President Trump criticized Russia's missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, calling them "disgusting" and indicating plans for new sanctions against Russia [1]. - Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Wittekov, is expected to visit Russia shortly before the proposed sanctions are implemented on August 8, marking the first new sanctions against Russia since Trump took office [1]. - U.S. Ambassador to the UN, John Kelly, emphasized the need for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire and lasting peace, urging that this must be completed before August 8 [1]. Group 2: Russian Response and Military Situation - Russia has reportedly maintained its military advantage on the battlefield, continuing drone and missile attacks against Ukraine, with significant strikes reported on Kyiv [3][4]. - Russian President Putin expressed willingness to wait for Ukraine's leadership to reconsider the timing of negotiations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue for peace [3]. - The control of strategic locations, such as Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, is crucial for Russia's military objectives, with claims of full control over northern and eastern areas of the region [4].

Group 1 - Russia launched missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, resulting in 16 deaths and 155 injuries as reported by Ukraine's emergency services [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that over 300 drones and 8 missiles were fired into Ukraine, targeting multiple regions including Kyiv, which was the main focus of the attacks [1] Group 2 - Russia's defense ministry announced control over the strategic town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, indicating a breakthrough in Ukrainian defenses [3] - The control of Chasiv Yar is expected to facilitate further Russian military operations towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key strategic locations in the Donetsk region [3] - The U.S. has threatened new sanctions against Russia and called for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by August 8, while asserting that Russia's economy has developed a degree of immunity to sanctions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is implementing sanctions against entities and individuals related to the Houthis' oil smuggling and evasion networks, targeting those involved in significant oil product imports and money laundering groups associated with the Houthis [1] Group 1 - The sanctions will affect entities and individuals in Yemen and the UAE [1] - The targeted individuals and entities are key players in the oil importation and money laundering operations linked to the Houthis [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

Core Viewpoint - The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, asserts that Mexico has no reason to face sanctions due to adjustments made to the capital airport system [1] Group 1 - The adjustments to the capital airport system are defended by the Mexican government as necessary and justified [1] - President López Obrador emphasizes that these changes should not lead to any punitive measures against Mexico [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on significantly lowering the price cap on Russian oil and implementing a series of new financial and trade measures [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Cap Mechanism - The new dynamic oil price cap mechanism will set the price for Russian oil exports to third countries at 15% below the average market price, reducing the price from $60 per barrel to approximately $47.60 [1] - This price cap will be reviewed every six months to adapt to market price changes [1] - The G7 initially established the price cap agreement in December 2022 to prevent Russia from funding its invasion of Ukraine [1] Group 2: Sanctions on Shipping and Financial Institutions - The 18th round of sanctions includes measures against 105 vessels in Russia's "shadow fleet," which are used to circumvent the price cap, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to over 400 [2] - The sanctions further prohibit transactions with 22 Russian banks [2] - A new trading ban related to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines has been introduced, aimed at preventing maintenance, operation, or future use of these pipelines, which have not been operational since 2022 [2] Group 3: Military Supply Restrictions - The sanctions also target 26 entities that supply the Russian military-industrial complex, further restricting Moscow's access to dual-use technologies [2]

Group 1 - The UK, in coordination with the EU, has lowered the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel, aiming to impact the Russian oil industry significantly [1] - This reduction in the price cap is expected to decrease the market value of Russian crude oil and severely affect a crucial source of funding for Russia [1] - The UK has also announced sanctions against three agencies affiliated with the Russian intelligence service and 18 intelligence personnel, citing their involvement in long-term cyberattack operations [1]