Dallas, Texas, Nov. 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valhi, Inc. (NYSE: VHI) reported a net loss attributable to Valhi stockholders of $22.2 million, or $.78 per share, in the third quarter of 2025 compared to net income of $57.5 million, or $2.01 per share, in the third quarter of 2024. For the first nine months of 2025, Valhi reported a net loss attributable to Valhi stockholders of $4.4 million, or $.15 per share, compared to net income of $85.2 million, or $2.99 per share, in the first nine months of 2024. ...

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Market Dynamics - Sector driving returns reports demand significantly exceeds supply, making a stock market bubble unlikely [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices have reached an all-time high of $11,200 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, indicating increased market interest in copper [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in copper prices is attributed to weakening supply and rising demand [2] - The shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to remove approximately 591,000 metric tons of copper production from the market by December 2026, contributing to a supply deficit [2] - Demand for copper is increasing due to concerns over U.S. government shutdowns and tariffs, as well as its critical role in manufacturing and energy security [2] Government Interest and Policy Actions - The U.S. government is showing increased interest in copper mining, highlighted by the signing of an executive order for the construction of the Amber Access Road in Alaska and acquiring a direct equity stake in Trilogy Metals [3] - U.S. policy actions are shaping the copper sector by recognizing its essential role in energy, defense, and technology amidst global competition for critical minerals [3] Investment Opportunities - The Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) offers exposure to both copper miners and physical copper, benefiting from the current market conditions [4] - As of September 30, 2025, COPP's net asset value (NAV) has increased by 22.60% over the last three months, reflecting the favorable conditions driving copper prices [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a same-store revenue guidance adjustment down by 15 basis points to 2.75% for the year, reflecting a mixed macroeconomic environment and a seasonal decline in traffic that began earlier than usual [5][28] - The renewal rate for the quarter was strong at 4.5%, with nearly 59% of leases renewing, contributing to the lowest reported third-quarter turnover in the company's history [14][16] - The company expects a revised annual same-store NOI range of 2.1% to 2.6%, with a midpoint of 2.35%, which is 15 basis points higher than the original 2025 guidance [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong demand and excellent resident retention, particularly in San Francisco and New York, where high demand met modest supply [3][6] - New lease rates were down by 1%, resulting in a blended rate increase of 2.2% for the quarter, which was at the low end of the expected range [16][17] - The company reported a physical occupancy rate of 96.3% for the quarter, driven by solid demand and strong retention in coastal markets, excluding Washington, DC [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - San Francisco is expected to be the best-performing market in 2025, with a favorable new supply setup and a significant increase in median incomes since 2019 [6][18] - Washington, DC experienced a slowdown in demand and pricing power due to federal job cuts and a government shutdown, with net effective prices down by 4% [20][66] - Competitive new supply in Washington, DC is projected to decline by 65% in 2026, which is expected to improve market conditions [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital allocation, having repurchased approximately $100 million of its stock during the third quarter and closed on a 375-unit property acquisition in Arlington, Texas [10][11] - The company plans to be selective in acquisition activity due to the compelling value of its stock compared to private market assets [11] - The company is implementing AI-driven tools to enhance operational efficiency and improve resident experiences, with a focus on reducing application processing time and improving service request handling [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing strong demand and resident retention [3][4] - The company anticipates a solid performance in 2026, supported by a decline in competitive new supply and a favorable job market [12][13] - Management noted that the current economic environment presents challenges for forecasting demand, but the setup for next year remains positive due to reduced competitive supply [14][27] Other Important Information - The company has adjusted its full-year acquisitions and dispositions guidance to $750 million each, down from $1 billion, with most transactions already completed [11] - The company is experiencing a significant decline in competitive new supply, with a projected 35% decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 levels [12] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: How does the company approach forecasting next year's growth given the current rent growth trends? - Management indicated that they are modeling for continued deceleration but feel confident about the setup for next year due to reduced competitive supply [33] Question: What factors influence the company's capital allocation decisions regarding stock buybacks versus other investment opportunities? - Management highlighted the attractiveness of existing assets and the need to balance stock buybacks with the availability of capital [34] Question: Can management provide insights on the current earn-in situation as the year ends? - Management noted that they expect to start 2026 with a similar embedded growth position as 2025, despite some deceleration observed [40] Question: What changes in renewal behavior has the company observed in light of recent market conditions? - Management reported some hesitation in renewal negotiations but maintained confidence in their centralized renewal process [42] Question: How does the company view the potential impact of AI on job growth in key markets? - Management noted that while AI's impact is uncertain, there is evidence of job growth in related industries, particularly in tech hubs like San Francisco and New York [52][55] Question: What is the outlook for the Washington, DC market in the coming months? - Management expects continued pressure on demand due to the government shutdown but anticipates a recovery as competitive supply decreases [66]

Economic Principles - Four key economic concepts (scarcity, supply and demand, costs and benefits, and incentives) explain many human decisions [1]

Technical Analysis Tools - Traders utilize technical indicators to understand the supply and demand dynamics of securities [1] - The report examines seven technical trading tools [1]

Want to start with this forward. Look, things were weaker earlier this year. You do see a real acceleration in demand heading into the fourth quarter.Where is it coming from specifically. Yeah, well, and thanks for being here in Dallas, Fort Worth. You know, we're coming off a third quarter.We posted a loss this morning, but like you said, we started to see some softness in demand just given the economic uncertainty that really hit probably in February, led to some softness in the first quarter through the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $1.1 billion or $3.53 per share, compared to $364 million or $1.14 per share for Q3 2024, reflecting a significant increase [8] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $1.1 billion or $3.66 per share, up from $371 million or $1.16 per share in Q3 2024 [8] - Refining segment reported operating income of $1.6 billion for Q3 2025, compared to $565 million in Q3 2024 [8] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion in Q3 2025, with adjusted net cash provided being $1.6 billion [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Refining throughput volumes averaged 3.1 million barrels per day in Q3 2025, with a utilization rate of 97% [8] - The renewable diesel segment reported an operating loss of $28 million in Q3 2025, down from an operating income of $35 million in Q3 2024 [9] - The ethanol segment achieved $183 million of operating income in Q3 2025, compared to $153 million in Q3 2024, with production volumes averaging 4.6 million gallons per day [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Refining margins remained strong due to global demand and low inventory levels, despite high utilization rates [5] - Quality differentials for medium and heavy sour crudes have widened, with WCS trading at a 12% discount to Brent and Maya at a 14% discount [20] - Diesel demand in the U.S. was reported to be up 8% year-over-year in Valero's system, with overall diesel demand showing a 2% increase according to DOE data [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is progressing on the FCC unit optimization project at St. Charles Refinery, a $230 million initiative expected to enhance high-value product yields [6] - Valero plans to continue returning excess free cash flow to shareholders through stock buybacks, maintaining a payout ratio of 78% for Q3 2025 [11][33] - The company anticipates refining fundamentals to remain supported by low inventories and supply tightness, with limited capacity additions beyond 2025 [7] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about refining fundamentals remaining strong due to low inventories and geopolitical disruptions affecting supply [5][7] - The outlook for the ethanol segment remains positive due to strong domestic and export demand, supported by a record corn crop [40] - Management noted that the renewable diesel segment is expected to return to positive EBITDA, aided by lower fat prices and rationalization in the biodiesel market [42] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 2025 with $8.4 billion in total debt and $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 18% [12] - Capital investments for 2025 are expected to be approximately $1.9 billion, with a significant portion allocated to sustaining the business [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on heavy crude differentials and availability - Management expressed disappointment in the impact of TMX on West Coast crude values, noting that most barrels are flowing to the Far East, and quality differentials have widened significantly [20][21] Question: Global capacity additions and reliability - Management indicated that while there are expected capacity additions, many new facilities may not reach nameplate capacity, leading to tighter supply-demand balances [26] Question: Impact of global outages on product markets - Management noted strong export demand and the inability to restock inventories in the U.S., which is keeping domestic markets tight [30] Question: Capital returns and stock buybacks - Management confirmed that excess free cash flow will continue to be directed towards share buybacks, maintaining a disciplined approach to capital returns [33] Question: Crude on the water and its destination - Management noted that most barrels are flowing to Asia, with increased Iraqi barrels expected in the U.S. market [39] Question: Performance of non-refining businesses - Ethanol is performing well due to strong demand and favorable conditions, while Diamond Green Diesel is returning to profitability [40][42] Question: Domestic gasoline demand trends - Management reported flat to slightly down gasoline demand year-over-year, with good export demand and stable fundamentals [50] Question: Technology advancements in operations - Management discussed the use of AI and robotics to improve operational efficiency and maintenance scheduling [56][86]