Welcome to Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. It is a big big week for earnings.It's underway. Let's start off and dive right into it with a check in on what's going on in the futures this morning. We had Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla after the close yesterday.We have a number of big companies coming out this morning. And as you look at how it's playing out, Dow futures indicating a very, very slightly higher open. S&P futures looking to um come back with the gains here looking to gain about a quarter of a percen ...

After several years of tech giants getting bigger and bigger market caps and dominating the makeup of the S&P 500 like never before, a different dynamic has emerged this year. The weight of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 has recently seen some major weakness relative to the rest of the stock market. Thank you RBC Capital Markets Lori Calvacina for this nifty chart you are looking at right now.The chart is primarily made up of the MAG 7 tech giants. Sentiment on tech has soured as fears of overspending on ...

We saw really strong revenue growth from Micron, The fundamentals clearly outperforming. Is that what we need. We need earnings proof points right now.Hi, Caroline. Yes, absolutely. I think investors are being more picky in general.I think as the I trend continues to accelerate, I think we need solid evidence that it is actually delivering commercial benefits, broadening application and, of course, delivering earnings. And I think that that is really the primary thing that investors are going to focus incre ...

Market Performance & Investment Sentiment - China's market has outperformed its global peers this year, narrowing the performance gaps with countries like the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Taiwan [1] - Investor sentiment towards China has subtly shifted from super optimistic to a more balanced or neutral stance, though still slightly under-balanced [4] - A disconnect exists between the economy and the market, with investors seeking economic recovery and better earnings to sustain the rally into next year [6] Key Drivers & Surprises - A significant surprise this year was China's technological breakthrough, potentially positioning it better than the U.S. in certain aspects of AI [7][8] - China has demonstrated its leverage and preparedness, alleviating fears of being cut off from the global trade and financial systems [9][10] - Investors have high confidence in policymakers, supply, and liquidity supporting the stock market, making further positive surprises on this front less likely [12] Economic Impact & Policy - A technology breakthrough leading to high-paying jobs is seen as a potential positive surprise, which could fundamentally turn around consumption and stabilize the property market [12][13] - More decisive and forceful policy in addressing overcapacity issues would be welcomed by the market [14] - The wealth effect from the stock market rebound is not expected to be significant, as much of household wealth remains locked in the property market [16][17] Valuation & Earnings - Valuations are getting stretched not only for China but even more so for other Asian markets, especially Northeast Asian markets [21] - The market is hoping to see an earnings turnaround as a key driver for future growth [20][21] - Even with a stock market recovery, a K-shaped consumption pattern is anticipated, benefiting wealthier households while mass market consumption remains depressed [22][23]

Market Trends & Earnings Performance - Biotech sector's XBI is up approximately 20% year-to-date, while IBB is up around 19%, influenced by interest rate dynamics [1] - Q3 earnings for LG increased by 17% year-over-year, demonstrating strong earnings performance [5] - Aggregate earnings growth rate has reached almost 11%, surpassing the initial projection of 8% at the beginning of the quarter [2] - The market is expected to end the year with an approximate 7% to 8% growth rate in earnings [6] Investment & Valuation - The market is undergoing a correction, with earnings remaining intact and anticipation of future rate cuts and the OBB stimulus [9] - Robinhood's stock is down 9%, despite strong earnings, potentially due to momentum unwinding and investor exhaustion, with the stock up 246% for the year [10][12] - Prediction markets alone generated hundreds of millions for Robinhood [11] - Dash experienced strong food delivery earnings, with EPS up 44%, revenue up 27%, and total orders up 25% [15] Risk Management & Market Correction - The market is working off extreme conditions related to overvaluation and extreme bullishness [13][14] - Managing risk is crucial, especially when dealing with momentum stocks that may reverse [14][16][17][18][19] - Government shutdown's prolonged duration will negatively impact the market [9]

Market Speculation & Bull Market Stage - The market shows signs of increased speculation as the bull market, which started in October 2022, progresses, with investors focusing more on potential gains than losses [1][2] - The performance of speculative stocks, particularly unprofitable tech stocks, is a warning sign of a late-stage bull market [2][3] - The biggest risk to the bull market is the Federal Reserve cutting rates aggressively, potentially inflating a bubble faster, while not cutting rates quickly could extend the bull market's duration [3][4][5] Earnings & Market Valuation - Investors often make errors by relying on predictions of future earnings to assess market valuation, questioning the accuracy of those predictions [7] - Wall Street's earnings estimates are lagging behind real earnings, similar to the situation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with consensus numbers for the next year increasing since July [8][9][10] Investment Strategy - The advice is not to bet against the market, particularly against the "big guys" in AI, as they report demand exceeding their capacity [10][11] - A concentrated portfolio focused on large-cap companies is favored over a broadened, equally weighted S&P 500 approach [12] - Companies growing through cash flow are considered less risky than those taking on debt, although the latter may offer higher returns [12]

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing signs of increased speculation, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, indicating a late stage in the current bull market that began in October 2022 [1][2][3]. Market Conditions - The bull market has been ongoing for nearly four years, with a shift in investor focus from potential losses to potential gains, leading to speculative behavior [1][2]. - Speculative stocks, especially those that are money-losing, have outperformed traditional stocks since the market low in April [2]. Economic Indicators - There is a concern that aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts could pose risks to the market, although the current fiscal policy is providing significant liquidity [3][4]. - Excess liquidity may inflate market bubbles more quickly, reminiscent of the rapid rise and fall of meme stocks in 2021 [5]. Earnings Outlook - Companies have been beating earnings expectations, and Wall Street has been slow to adjust its forecasts, which may lead to upward revisions in earnings estimates for the coming year [8][10]. - The current earnings environment is strong, with companies indicating they cannot keep up with demand, suggesting a positive outlook for certain sectors [11][13]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to focus on larger, established companies that are better positioned to meet demand, rather than betting against the market [10][12]. - Investors are encouraged to consider companies that are using cash flow for growth, although those taking on debt may present higher risks [12].

All right, take a look at shares of eBay. That stock is tumbling, down by about 9% this morning. It comes after eBay beat uh earnings estimates and revenue estimates.But the company's profit forecast for the current quarter missed expectations. That has investors concerned about shrinking margins ahead ahead of the holiday shopping season. Before today's decline, eBay's stock was up about 61% for the year to date. Uh at this point it looks like it's up by about 44% for the year to date. ...

Despite all these massive metrics, our next guest says we're still in the early innings of the AI buildout. For more on just how critical today's earnings reports will be to that narrative and who's best positioned into those prints, let's bring in John Belton, growth portfolio manager over at Gabelli Funds. Tim Seymour and Barbara Duran are still with us as well.John, you kind of heard the conversation about, you know, the economy and Claudia and the lack of data. Does any of that factor into how you are v ...

Joining me now is Michael Canerwitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. Thank you for being here, Michael. Uh, so let's get into the terminology here because one thing that Gates was saying to Andrew earlier today was this notion that a bubble is used to describe both the 17th century tulip mania as well as what we saw in the 1990s uh and early 2000s with regard to the internet.After the internet, there were a lot of real companies that came out of it. So, it wasn't just this speculative bubble w ...