Market Performance & Investment Sentiment - China's market has outperformed its global peers this year, narrowing the performance gaps with countries like the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Taiwan [1] - Investor sentiment towards China has subtly shifted from super optimistic to a more balanced or neutral stance, though still slightly under-balanced [4] - A disconnect exists between the economy and the market, with investors seeking economic recovery and better earnings to sustain the rally into next year [6] Key Drivers & Surprises - A significant surprise this year was China's technological breakthrough, potentially positioning it better than the U.S. in certain aspects of AI [7][8] - China has demonstrated its leverage and preparedness, alleviating fears of being cut off from the global trade and financial systems [9][10] - Investors have high confidence in policymakers, supply, and liquidity supporting the stock market, making further positive surprises on this front less likely [12] Economic Impact & Policy - A technology breakthrough leading to high-paying jobs is seen as a potential positive surprise, which could fundamentally turn around consumption and stabilize the property market [12][13] - More decisive and forceful policy in addressing overcapacity issues would be welcomed by the market [14] - The wealth effect from the stock market rebound is not expected to be significant, as much of household wealth remains locked in the property market [16][17] Valuation & Earnings - Valuations are getting stretched not only for China but even more so for other Asian markets, especially Northeast Asian markets [21] - The market is hoping to see an earnings turnaround as a key driver for future growth [20][21] - Even with a stock market recovery, a K-shaped consumption pattern is anticipated, benefiting wealthier households while mass market consumption remains depressed [22][23]

You have a sale. >> Yes. >> Verdive.>> Ver. >> You like this name. >> I do for a long time.>> I I do and I've been in and out of it over the last few years. >> What are you doing. Why are you selling it.>> I'm trying to lessen my exposure to the uh AI infrastructure. So, so this was just natural casualty of it. I think that look the valuation's high. I don't think valuation's attractive.When there's momentum, I'm willing to ride it through. >> Isn't there momentum in this. Uh I'm gonna defer to >> No, serio ...

For more in Paramount's hostile bid for WBD, Moffett Nathansson's Robert Fishman joins us now. Robert, great to have you with us. Um, wh which bid is superior in your view if you're a WBD shareholder.>> Well, you guys just went through a lot of the different dynamics that investors are are now having to weigh after the the hostile bid today. Um I would say clearly if you subscribe to the view that global networks um have less value then the paramount bid on the face of it today um is superior. the the quest ...

Michael Bur, the investor known for predicting the housing meltdown, is taking aim at Tesla. In his new Substack, Bur details his critique of the EV makaker valuation. Yahoo Finances Pro Romanian joins us now with the details.So, Pros, Michael Bur saying Tesla is overvalued. He slammed Musk's pay package. Yeah.What is the overarching theme to this thesis here from Bur. >> Well, I think it's just attacking another richly valued stock like you said, right. He said that, you know, in a in a post about the trag ...

Our next guest says potentially strong data could put pressure on Lily shares. For more, let's bring in Kessive Capital managing director Len Yaffy. Len, great to have you with us. Good to see you.>> Thank you so much. >> So, we're expecting a couple of readouts on Marit Amgen's drug. Len, so what what's the scenario here.The the data is good. And what do you characterize as good and what does that mean. I think the key with maritide and this is part two of a phase two study is what is the incidence if we l ...

I know you have a lot of biotech exposure just coincidentally the company going public right now all that noise while Jenny was trying to get her point out a biotech company going public just now um you have a lot of biotech exposure Joe's talked a lot about biotech is that the place to go considering some of this turbulence we're seeing in the market >> well it's been a great story obviously year to date uh Frank you know XBI is up I think 20% the the IBB which I have exposure to is up around 19 I think pa ...

Cathie Wood reconfirms the Price target for Tesla in 2030 of $260090% of this valuation is based off robotaxis and no humanoid robots baked In https://t.co/XUAPM5RaOf ...

Obviously, there are some questions about the valuation side of it. Um, to Dan's point, and it looks like one of the people hinting in that direction is one of the people who made his name during the financial crisis. >> Yeah, Michael Bur, the hedge fund manager who called out that 2007 financial crisis and the collapse of the US housing market back in 2007, has now put a sour note on this AI trade.perhaps one of the biggest calls on this bubble race that we've gotten so far that kind of puts a little realn ...

Walmart is on track to join the “elite” crop of companies with a trillion-dollar valuation after its announced partnership with OpenAI powered the stock to a record high, according to Mizuho analyst David Bellinger https://t.co/GDgWw9jCJB ...

Market Sentiment & Valuation Concerns - Some analysts see parallels between the current market and the market of October 1999, suggesting a potentially similar trading strategy [1] - Concerns exist regarding stock market valuations and the AI trade, particularly the speed and valuation levels of the market's movements [7][8] - Market participants express weariness and concern about stock market valuations, indicating potential jitters [7] - Despite overall concerns, some argue that negative or nervous sentiment can be a bullish sign, as the opposite of prevailing sentiment often occurs [10] Economic Indicators & Investor Positioning - Traditional sentiment indicators are mixed, with the American Association of Individual Investors showing subdued sentiment, while Conference Board data indicates some froth among retail investors [11][12][13] - The absence of CFTC data due to a government shutdown makes gauging institutional investor positioning difficult [11] Comparison to the Tech Bubble - While some valuation charts resemble peaks seen in past markets, particularly for the S&P 500, top 10 names in the S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100 are not quite at tech bubble highs [3] - The current earnings environment differs significantly from the tech bubble era, with more substantial businesses and less reliance on speculative metrics [4][5] - During the tech bubble, many companies raising billions of dollars were essentially "fake companies" lacking real businesses [5] Potential Market Trajectory - The market could experience a significant rally in the short term before potentially reaching a top [9] - The key is whether the productivity impacts of AI will take time to materialize, potentially slowing down market momentum [8][9]