Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's current stance on monetary policy, particularly in light of inflation and employment statistics [4][10][12] - There is a perception of confusion regarding Jerome Powell's communication, but some argue he was clear in articulating the balance of risks [3][5][6] Group 1: Inflation and Employment - Inflation is currently running close to 3%, which necessitates a positive real return to support capital formation for businesses [4][5] - Weak employment statistics are attributed to fiscal and immigration policies, indicating external factors affecting the labor market [5][10] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes both inflation control and employment stability, which complicates decision-making [10][11][12] - There is concern that political pressures may influence the Fed's decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, which could be seen as a response to the president's focus on employment [12][13][14] Group 3: Perspectives on Jerome Powell - Some analysts believe Powell's communication may have lacked focus, but others defend his clarity in discussing economic risks [2][3][6] - The influence of other Federal Reserve members, such as Bowman and Waller, is highlighted, suggesting a commitment to economic logic over political pressures [6][8]

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The Fed faces a challenge in addressing a scenario in which inflation remains high while the labor market weakens. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is not guaranteed to repeat Wednesday's interest-rate cut. The Fed is caught between its missions to keep inflation low and employment high, and both are moving in the wrong direction. Powell said the Fed would cut rates further only if economic data indicated that was the right move, brushing of ...

Let's bring in private wealth chief market strategist Carol Schliff and region's wealth management CIO Alan Mcnite. Guys, welcome. Allan, you didn't get a whole lot of new information here, but at least the Fed in its initial decide on a decision on a quarter point was mostly aligned.I mean, they've had more descent in the past. What does that say about the future. I think the most positive thing for us was there wasn't this major surprise.We had so much aida and angst going into this where it was going to ...

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen.At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interes ...

Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing i ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point due to rising downside risks to employment and elevated inflation levels [2][10] - GDP growth has moderated, with a rise of approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [3][4] - Business investment in equipment and intangibles has increased, while the housing sector remains weak [4] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, with payroll job gains slowing to an average of 29,000 per month over the past three months [5][6] - Labor demand has softened, and the recent pace of job creation is below the break-even rate needed to maintain the unemployment rate [6][7] - Wage growth continues to moderate but still outpaces inflation, indicating unusual market conditions in both labor supply and demand [6] Inflation Trends - Total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose by 2.7% over the 12 months ending in August, with core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [8] - Near-term inflation expectations have risen due to tariffs, although longer-term expectations remain aligned with the 2% inflation goal [9] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 3.0% for this year, decreasing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 [9] Monetary Policy Direction - The FOMC aims to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [10][15] - The appropriate level of the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% at the end of this year, lower than previous projections [15] - The committee remains committed to supporting maximum employment and achieving a sustainable inflation rate of 2% [16]

Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a quarter point as expected to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent. New Fed governor and former CEO, current CE chair uh Steven Byron desenting in favor of 50 basis point cut. The median Fed official looking for two more rate cuts this year, but just barely.I'll get you details on that in a second. The statement importantly says the balance of risks have shifted. Downside risk to employment has risen.Job gains have slowed. Unemployment has edged up and ...

HERE’S THE FED DECISION RECAP (SEPTEMBER 17, 2025):1. FED DELIVERS FIRST RATE CUT OF 2025, LOWERING BY 25 BPS2. MEDIAN PROJECTION SIGNALS 50 BPS MORE CUTS THIS YEAR3. GOVERNOR MIRAN DISSENTS, PUSHING FOR A 50 BPS CUT TODAY4. FED WARNS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT ARE GROWING5. 6 OFFICIALS EXPECT NO FURTHER CUTS IN 20256. 9 OFFICIALS FORECAST TWO MORE CUTS BEFORE YEAR-END ...

Workforce Demand - The U S will need 530万 (53 million) more workers with some college education by 2032 [1]

What are you expecting actually from the Fed. 25 basis point cuts. And then we have a bigger idea of what happens next.I think you're going to get 25 basis point cuts. You could get some dissents here because you've had the signals for 50 basis points from a few of the governors. But 25, I think, is really done.After the August employment report came out, it became very clear that they're going to really take a look at the employment mandate. But I would just still emphasize that inflation remains sticky he ...