Let's get to Jim and stop trading. >> Yeah, home builder report today. PY, uh, thank you.>> You would think with rates coming down it would matter, but no. They've got weak demand and margin pressure. Terrible combination.I continue to believe that this is why the Fed must cut. Uh, because maybe if you got short-term rates, you could do some sort of uh some sort of financing that would be a balloon because man, this is bad out there. >> I know.But Jim, financial conditions. Look at the stock market. Look at ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, reflecting a shift in expectations among economists regarding monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Interest Rate Predictions - A Reuters poll indicates that 115 out of 117 economists predict a rate cut to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, with two economists forecasting a 25 basis points cut in October and a 50 basis points cut in December [2][3]. - The likelihood of another cut in December is estimated at 71%, showing a consensus among economists [3]. Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve is balancing the risks of elevated inflation and a weakening labor market, with a recent rate cut being the first since December [2][4]. - A government shutdown has delayed key employment and inflation data, complicating the economic outlook [4]. Labor Market Insights - Current private-sector data suggest modest layoffs and hiring, indicating stability in the job market without significant changes [5]. - Economists are divided on whether the job slowdown is due to labor demand or supply issues, which affects monetary policy responses [5]. Inflation and Unemployment Forecasts - The unemployment rate is expected to average around 4.3% through 2027, remaining largely unchanged [6]. - Inflation is projected to average above the Fed's 2% target through 2027, with consumer inflation anticipated to rise to 3.1% from 2.9% in August [6]. Future Rate Speculations - Economists are divided on future interest rates, with predictions ranging from 2.25%-2.50% to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of next year, influenced by speculation on the next Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May [7].

Market Trends & Interest Rate Expectations - South Korea's shorter-maturity government bonds are expected to get a boost [1] - Expectations for an interest-rate cut next month are spurred by measures to cool the housing market [1]

Interest Rate Expectations - Markets anticipate a 96.8% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on October 29, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents a "buy the dip" opportunity, despite elevated valuations and stocks nearing record highs [2][4]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 has achieved 33 record closes in the current year and 57 in the previous year, indicating strong market performance [2]. - The market is trading at elevated valuations, raising questions about future growth potential [2]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's actions have provided a tailwind for the market, particularly following its interest rate pause in September [3]. - Historical data from Goldman Sachs indicates that after similar pauses, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates eight times, with mixed outcomes for the economy [3]. Economic Outlook - In four out of eight historical instances where the economy continued to grow post-pause, the market saw an average increase of 8% over six months and 15% over the next 12 months [4]. - The current outlook leans towards continued economic growth, but investors will need to be selective in identifying growth opportunities [4].

Core Insights - Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. (NYSE:SBSW) reached a new 52-week high as gold prices surged past $4,300, indicating strong investor interest in mining stocks [1][2] - The company's stock price peaked at $13.11 during intra-day trading, ultimately closing at $12.82, reflecting a 6.04% increase [1] - The rise in gold prices was attributed to a 2.83% increase to $4,326.58, driven by optimism for interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions between the US and China [3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sibanye Stillwater's stock performance was notably strong, with a 6.04% increase on the day it reached a 52-week high [1] - The stock's intra-day high of $13.11 demonstrates significant market interest and trading activity [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Gold spot prices increased by 2.83% to $4,326.58, while platinum prices rose by 3.17% to $1,718 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of investment in precious metals [3] - The increase in precious metal prices is linked to investor sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical issues [3] Group 3: Shareholder Activity - The Public Investment Corporation (PIC) raised its stake in Sibanye Stillwater by 2.35%, increasing its total ownership to over 20%, solidifying its position as a major shareholder [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may be prompted to cut interest rates sooner due to increasing bank loan defaults, indicating a declining economy [1][2] - Recent credit losses in the banking system provide enough justification for the Fed to act quickly without significant concerns about inflation [2] - The stock market reacted negatively to the news of credit losses, with the Dow dropping 301 points and the S&P declining by 63 points [3] Group 2 - The NASDAQ experienced a 47% drop despite an initial increase earlier in the day, reflecting market volatility [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between cutting rates to stimulate economic growth and maintaining rates to control inflation, especially with regional banks struggling due to bad loans [4]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and disappointing economic data, while the euro is gaining strength amid easing political risks in France and supportive comments from the European Central Bank. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.21% and has reached a one-week low, influenced by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller regarding potential interest rate cuts to support the labor market [1] - The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell significantly by -36.0 to a six-month low of -12.8, which was weaker than the expected 10.0, contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is also seen as a negative factor for the dollar, as prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The October NAHB housing market index rose by +5 to a six-month high of 37, surpassing expectations of 33, indicating some positive momentum in the housing sector [3] - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that US productivity growth appears to be improving "significantly," which may help mitigate inflationary pressures from trade tariffs [4] Group 3: Euro Performance - The EUR/USD pair is up by +0.21% and has reached a one-week high, supported by easing political risks in France after Prime Minister Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes [5] - Hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch indicated that the likelihood of additional ECB rate cuts has been decreasing, further supporting the euro [5][6]

Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a strong rally, with the BSE Sensex increasing over 660 points to reach 83,200 and the Nifty 50 climbing above 25,500, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and optimism regarding India-US trade talks [1] - By 1:13 PM, the Sensex was up 640.10 points or 0.77% at 83,245.53, while the Nifty 50 rose 197.10 points or 0.78% to 25,520.65 [2] Sector Performance - All indices, except for PSU Bank and pharma, traded positively, with realty, consumer durables, FMCG, auto, and private bank indices increasing by 1-2% [2] - The midcap index saw modest gains of 0.52%, while the smallcap index rose by 0.21% [2] Stock Performance - Top gainers in the Nifty 50 included Nestle India, Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank, M&M, and Tata Motors, while HDFC Life, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Sun Pharma, and TCS were the biggest losers [3] - The private bank index surged following Axis Bank's Q2 results, with the stock rising nearly 4% in early trade [3] Trading Activity - A total of 3,062 stocks were traded on the National Stock Exchange, with 1,777 advancing, 1,179 declining, and 106 remaining unchanged [4] - The market saw 72 stocks reaching their 52-week highs, including Bajaj Finance, HDFC AMC, and Canara Bank, while 50 stocks hit their 52-week lows [5] Sentiment Analysis - The overall market sentiment appears bullish, supported by widespread gains across numerous stocks [6] - In the midcap segment, stocks like Oberoi Realty and Godrej Properties surged 3-5%, while KEI Industries and MFSL depreciated 2-6% [6] - In the smallcap basket, BLS International and Ola Electric soared 2-10%, while Anant Raj and Delhivery dropped 2-3% [6] Earnings Reports - Shares of Nestle and IOB reacted to Q2 numbers announced today, with several companies including Eternal, Wipro, and Jio Financial set to announce results later in the day [7]

Market Overview - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a slight easing in overall fear levels, remaining in the "Fear" zone with a reading of 29.5, up from 29.3 [5] - U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones gaining over 200 points, driven by strong bank earnings, while U.S.-China trade tensions tempered investor enthusiasm [1][4] Company Earnings - Major banks including Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs exceeded analyst expectations in their earnings reports [2] - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Abbott Laboratories [4] Economic Indicators - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August, missing market estimates of 100.5 [3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated increased employment risks, which has shifted the Fed's balance of risk and bolstered market confidence in a potential 25-basis-point interest rate cut [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with industrials, consumer staples, and financials showing the largest gains, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors declined [3]