Core Viewpoint - President Trump has stated he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell despite an ongoing criminal investigation into Powell, which relates to the Federal Reserve's over-budget headquarters renovation [1][4][5]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Context - Powell is currently under investigation by the Justice Department regarding the Fed's renovation project, which has reportedly exceeded its budget by approximately $1.5 billion, bringing the total cost to around $4 billion [8][18][19]. - Trump has expressed frustration with Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough and has indicated that he is considering other candidates for the Fed chair position, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [6][12]. - The investigation has drawn criticism from various political figures and foreign central bank leaders, who are concerned about the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve [12][14]. Group 2: Trump's Position and Future Plans - Trump has suggested that he may announce a replacement for Powell in the coming weeks, while also dismissing concerns from lawmakers regarding his potential nominees [6][14]. - The White House has stated that any speculation about the nomination process for the Federal Reserve chairman is premature until an official announcement is made [5]. - Trump has reiterated his belief that a president should have influence over Federal Reserve decisions, arguing that his business experience gives him a better understanding of economic matters than Powell [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market accounts (MMAs) and highlights the importance of earning competitive rates on savings as interest rates decline following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is currently 0.58%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [3][9]. - Some banks are offering MMA rates above 4.50%, making them attractive options for savers [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve maintained a target range for the federal funds rate of 5.25%–5.50% from July 2023 to September 2024, but has since implemented three rate cuts, bringing the current rate to 3.50%–3.75% [4][5]. - The decline in deposit account rates suggests that savers may have limited time to take advantage of higher MMA rates [5]. Group 3: Considerations for Savers - Money market accounts provide easy access to funds, often with check-writing capabilities or debit card access, making them suitable for those needing liquidity while earning better returns than traditional savings accounts [6][8]. - For conservative savers, MMAs are appealing due to FDIC insurance and the preservation of principal, although riskier investments may be necessary for long-term savings goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stocks finished lower, led by declines in technology shares and bank stocks, despite some banks beating quarterly profit estimates. Concerns over a proposed cap on credit-card interest rates have negatively impacted financial sector sentiment [1][9]. Financial Sector - Citigroup and Bank of America shares fell despite beating Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter profit. The S&P 500 bank index dropped, with Wells Fargo down 4.6% after missing profit expectations [1][9]. - Financials, which had seen significant gains in 2025, have declined this week due to concerns over President Trump's proposed credit-card interest rate cap, which could squeeze consumers and hurt profits in the financial sector [1][9]. - Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, noted that profit-taking and consolidation are occurring in the banks after a strong run, but overall optimism remains [2]. Technology Sector - The S&P 500 technology sector also fell, as investors shifted focus from expensive megacap stocks to value and more defensive names [2][9]. - Shares of Broadcom and Fortinet dropped following reports that Chinese authorities instructed domestic companies to stop using cybersecurity software from U.S. and Israeli firms [5][10]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the S&P 500 lost 37.14 points (0.53%) to 6,926.60, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 238.12 points (1.00%) to 23,471.75 [5][9]. - The small-cap Russell 2000 index reached a record closing high, along with the S&P 500 industrials index, indicating strong performance in certain sectors [4][9]. Economic Indicators - U.S. producer prices matched forecasts in November, while retail sales exceeded expectations. Consumer prices in December rose as projected [6][10]. - Interest rates are expected to remain steady through the first half of the year, with traders anticipating at least two cuts before year-end [7][10]. Trading Volume - Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 22.54 billion shares, significantly higher than the 16.69 billion average over the last 20 trading days. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.85-to-1 ratio on the NYSE [8][10].

Group 1 - Bitcoin has risen over 4% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $97,000, a level not seen since mid-November, following a stable inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - Crypto-linked stocks, such as Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR), have increased by almost 3% and more than 6% respectively, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - The potential for lower interest rates this year, as suggested by the inflation report, is viewed as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, which may lead to further price increases [4] Group 2 - The possibility of passing the Clarity Act, which would create a regulatory framework for digital assets, is contributing to positive sentiment among crypto investors, although its advancement is uncertain due to postponed Senate discussions [5][6] - Smaller stocks, such as High Roller Technologies (ROLR), are experiencing significant gains, attributed to renewed optimism in the crypto market and partnerships with crypto platforms like Crypto.com [7] - Experts believe that stable inflation and ongoing regulatory developments are supporting the rise in digital asset prices [8]

Market Performance - Hong Kong's HSI traded at 27,037, up 188 points or 0.7% [2][4] - Nikkei increased by 864 points or 1.6% to 54,413 [2][4] - Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose by 1.11% and 1.83% respectively [2][4] - South Korea's Kospi was down 4 points around 9 am IST [2][4] US Market Influence - US stocks retreated on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 pulling back from a record high [2][4] - Losses were primarily driven by banking shares after JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported investment-banking fees below guidance [2][4] - December inflation data did not significantly alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts [2][4] Bank Earnings Outlook - A heavy slate of bank earnings is being tracked, with results from major banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley expected soon [3][4] - The banking group is projected to achieve its second-highest annual profit on record, aided by policy changes under the Trump administration [3][4] Tariff Ruling Risks - The potential US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's global tariffs is a key risk factor [3][4] - An unfavorable ruling could lead to a negative market response, although the administration has alternative legal routes to enforce tariffs [3][4] Commodity Market Trends - Brent crude prices extended gains, marking the largest four-day rise since June due to heightened rhetoric around Iran [3][4] - Silver prices continued to rise, achieving the strongest three-day rally on record [3][4]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.8%, the S&P 500 down about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping roughly 0.1% [1] Company Earnings - JPMorgan Chase reported a quarterly earnings miss, impacted by a $2.2 billion hit to net income from an Apple Card deal, leading to a more than 4% drop in its shares [2] - The earnings season has commenced, with Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley expected to release their results in the coming days [2] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that the annual headline inflation rate remained steady at 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, aligning with forecasts [3] - Core consumer prices rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, marking the lowest annual increase since early 2021 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The inflation data is significant following a December jobs report that suggested a cooling labor market, leading traders to firm up bets on the Fed maintaining rates this month, with expectations for a quarter-point cut in June [4] Political and Geopolitical Context - Global central bankers have criticized the Justice Department's investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, viewing it as a threat to the Fed's autonomy [5] - Former President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries continuing business with Iran, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the market [6]

He added that the signal being sent by the White House to Powell has potential to lift bitcoin. That remains to be seen, but Monday brought signs of that scenario playing out. To be sure, it is highly unusual for the Justice Department to investigate a sitting Fed leader. If the investigation turns against Powell, the dollar could suffer due to credibility issues, perhaps lifting bitcoin and BRRR. After all, past periods of strain on central banks sparked interest in gold and other currencies. Now professio ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin surpassed $93,500, gaining over 2% in 24 hours, driven by steady inflation data, political instability, and renewed interest in crypto as a macro hedge [1] - Altcoins such as ether (ETH) and BNB also saw increases, with ETH rising 1.7% to $3,185 and BNB up over 1.5%, while the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, increased by 1.4% [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remained steady at 2.7%, with core CPI lower than analyst expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's soft landing narrative [1][3] - Lower interest rates are expected to enhance the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [3] Market Resistance and Predictions - Bitcoin needs to break through the $93,500-$95,000 resistance zone, which has limited price increases for nearly two months [4] - If retail sales and housing data confirm consumer resilience, a decisive break of the resistance could lead to a run towards $100,000 before the end of the month [7] Legislative Developments - The digital asset market structure legislation is progressing in the Senate, potentially providing a "seal of approval" for institutional capital if passed [5] - The bill includes compromises on stablecoin yields and protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) [5] Political Context - Political tensions, particularly between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell, are raising concerns about the Fed's independence, with a Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority expected to impact the dollar and risk assets [6]

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 26.2% over the past three months, driven by record-high gold prices and strong earnings performance [1][7][26] - The company's stock performance has outpaced the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 17.5% rise and the S&P 500's 6% increase [2][7] Stock Performance - NEM's stock has shown bullish momentum, trading above its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages, indicating a long-term uptrend [5][6] - Compared to peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have seen gains of 46.7%, 12.9%, and 29.1%, respectively [2] Production and Divestitures - Newmont reported a 15% year-over-year decline in gold production for Q3 2025, reaching 1.42 million ounces, attributed to strategic divestments and reduced grades [21] - The company anticipates maintaining gold production for 2025 at approximately 5.9 million ounces, with Q4 production expected to be around 1.415 million ounces, reflecting a 25% year-over-year decline [22] Financial Health - Newmont has a strong liquidity position of $9.6 billion, including $5.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and a record free cash flow of $1.6 billion [14] - The company has returned over $5.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the past two years, while also reducing debt by approximately $2 billion [15][20] Growth Projects - Newmont is investing in growth projects such as the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia, which are expected to enhance production capacity and extend mine life [10][11] - The Ahafo North project is projected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over a 13-year mine life, with an expected ramp-up to full capacity in 2026 [11] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Newmont have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings at $6.32, indicating an 81.6% year-over-year growth [23] - The company is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 15.42X, which is a premium to the industry average of 14.66X [25] Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case due to its robust growth projects, strong Tier 1 asset performance, and solid financial health [26] - Despite challenges from lower production and strategic divestments, the strength in gold prices is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow generation [16][26]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - **Foreign Exchange and Rates Strategy**: The conference call primarily discusses strategies and outlooks for foreign exchange (FX) and interest rates across various regions, particularly Asia and G10 currencies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD/CNH Outlook**: The current spot reference for USD/CNH is 6.980, with expectations for potential movements in the next three months [1] 2. **Top FX Trades**: - Long CNH/KRW with a target of 216 by end-February, conviction level raised to 4/5 [2][9] - Long NZD/USD targeting 0.6000 by end-March, conviction level at 4/5 [2][16] - New long positions initiated in EUR/GBP and SGD/IDR, both with conviction levels of 3/5 [2][9] 3. **US Economic Indicators**: - December NFP report showed +50K jobs added vs. consensus of +70K, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% [4] - Upcoming US core CPI release on January 13 is anticipated to be significant, with a forecast of 0.5% m-o-m, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations [7] 4. **China's Economic Data**: - December exports are expected to show a slowdown to 3.0% y-o-y from 5.9% previously, which could impact RMB performance [8] - Positive expectations for RMB appreciation due to stable external sector conditions and reduced USD purchases by banks [18] 5. **Korean Won (KRW) Dynamics**: - Anticipated underperformance of KRW due to retail outflows into US equities and structural outflows from the Korea National Pension Service [20] 6. **Singapore Monetary Policy**: - MAS may tighten FX policy in April 2026, with a 30% chance of a slight slope increase in January [21] 7. **Indonesian Fiscal Concerns**: - Indonesia's fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.92% of GDP, raising concerns about future fiscal policy under the new administration [22][23] 8. **Taiwan's Currency Position**: - Maintaining a short USD/TWD position with a target of 29.8 by end-May 2026, supported by strong local fundamentals and global AI demand [24] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Reactions to US Tariffs**: The Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs could lead to significant market reactions, with expectations of a ruling against the tariffs [4][6] 2. **NOK/SEK Trade**: Profit taken on short NOK/SEK trade due to changes in Norges Bank's FX activity, with a bullish outlook on SEK [11] 3. **JPY Weakness**: Ongoing concerns about JPY weakness amid geopolitical tensions and the need for reassurance from Japanese authorities [12] 4. **Canadian Dollar (CAD) Performance**: CAD has weakened due to falling crude oil prices and potential shifts in US oil imports [13] 5. **AUD Valuation**: AUD is considered undervalued, with a target of 0.6875 by end-March, supported by positive global sentiment [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic outlook for various currencies and the macroeconomic factors influencing these positions.