Economic Overview - The year 2025 has been marked by significant events reshaping the global economy, including a tariff war, advancements in AI, the rise of sports betting, the integration of cryptocurrencies into the banking system, and a sustained bull market [1] Key Terms and Trends - **Affordability** has been a major concern for consumers, driven by persistent inflation and high prices in food, healthcare, and housing, leading to a decline in consumer sentiment [2][3] - **Tariffs** have played a crucial role in economic policy, with their impacts on affordability being a primary concern for investors and consumers [4] - **Gold** has emerged as a leading asset class, surging over 60% year-to-date, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market uncertainties [5] - **AI Stocks** have seen significant investment, with major companies pledging $380 billion in capital expenditures, raising concerns about a potential bubble in the sector [6] - The **Stablecoin Act of 2025** has established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, marking a significant step in the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape [7] - **Sports Betting** has gained mainstream acceptance, with Americans expected to wager over $150 billion in 2025, reflecting a growing interest in high-risk betting strategies like parlays [8] - **Insider Trading** has garnered attention, particularly following market fluctuations related to tariff policies, raising questions about market integrity [9] - **Private Markets** are becoming more accessible due to regulatory changes, allowing broader participation in alternative investments [11] - **Covered Calls** have become a popular strategy for generating income in a sideways stock market, appealing to investors looking for stable returns [13]

Market Outlook - Housing market is expected to turn a corner in 2026 with flat national home prices [1] - Sales are projected to increase while prices are capped or potentially decrease, leading to improved affordability [3] - Compass anticipates 2026 as the beginning of a new era for the housing market, with sales increasing and prices stabilizing [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Withdrawals of listings were notably higher in 2025, representing potential shadow demand rather than just shadow supply [6][7] - Approximately 150,000 people are estimated to be waiting to move, representing delayed demand [7] - In certain markets, withdrawals represent demand rather than supply [7] Regional Variations - Florida is showing strong transaction velocity, with weekly pending sales up by 10-15% year-over-year [8] - New York Tri-State area and Chicago area sales growth has been limited by tight inventory [8] Interest Rates Impact - Consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to absolute levels [9] - Forecast assumes mortgage rates in the low sixes, allowing for sales growth with capped prices due to sufficient inventory [10]

I would say if the week had sort of a defining moment like they say campaigns do, it might be Donald Trump in Pennsylvania once again mocking the concept of affordability, then saying, "Oh, I can't say that. My people don't want me to say that." But still saying it. That's at the beginning of the week. And at the end of the week, we have this AP poll that is very consistent with so many other polls out there that show when it comes to the handling of the economy, regardless of what he says, regardless of wh ...

Core Perspective - The article discusses the political strategy of Democrats focusing on the concept of "affordability" to critique the economic performance under President Trump, highlighting a disconnect between political messaging and the economic realities faced by many Americans [1][5][6]. Economic Sentiment - Affordability is defined as the ability to meet basic needs without financial fear, such as paying bills and providing for children, which resonates with a significant portion of the population currently struggling economically [4][5]. - The perception of economic hardship is prevalent, with about one-third of the population feeling economically insecure, leading to increased reliance on credit cards for essential purchases [5][11]. Political Messaging - The article emphasizes that political leaders, including President Trump, may be out of touch with the public's economic feelings, as they attempt to portray the economy positively despite widespread concerns [6][7]. - The discussion highlights the challenge for Republicans in addressing economic issues without appearing disconnected from the realities faced by voters [7][10]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the current administration needs to implement effective policies, such as deregulation and healthcare reforms, to improve economic conditions for average Americans [8][12]. - There is a call for Republicans to propose tangible solutions, such as direct payments or subsidies, to address the economic challenges and counter the favorable perception of existing healthcare policies [9][10].

The last word with Lawrence O'Donnell starts right now. Hey, Lawrence. >> Hey, Jen. I remember Tuesday night when we were getting a report from Georgia about uh Eric Gizler who was >> pulling off an amazing win for Democrats in a very strongly Republican district, the legislative district down there. Uh he's going to join us tonight and he's going to tell us how he he's going to tell us how he did it. I have a strong suspicion we're going to hear the words affordability and Trump, I bet. Uh but but I'm goin ...

They should absolutely extend the ACA tax credits. That is a no-brainer. There are going to be millions of people who lose health care on January 1st because they can't pay for it.And when you combine that with Medicaid, it is devastating the most vulnerable people in this country. And the next thing they need to do is generate revenue. The problem with the Republicans is that they think there's one input into the deficit cost.But there are two revenue. And you don't have to raise the marginal income tax. Y ...

2026 Midterm Elections & Iowa Senate Race - Democratic State Representative Josh Turk is running for Senate in Iowa, aiming to flip the seat after the incumbent Republican Senator Joanie Ernst announced she will not seek re-election [1][2] - Iowa hasn't had a Democratic senator in a decade, but Turk believes Iowa is a "common sense state that has masqueraded red" [2][3] - In 2022, Democrats were only 1.5% away from having three of six statewide officials [4] - Turk won his district, which Trump won by 20 points, by nearly six points [5] Healthcare Issues in Iowa - Iowa is last in the nation by basically every single metric for healthcare, including OBGYNs and rural hospitals [7] - Iowa has closed 31 nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and rural hospitals [7] - Iowa is the only state in the nation with a growing cancer rate [7][11] - 132,000 Iowans are expected to see their healthcare premiums double or triple in the next few days [7][9] - Turk supports continuing the ACA subsidies for at least two years [6][9] Affordability & Economic Issues - Affordability is a top issue in the midterms [9][10] - Turk advocates for a livable wage in Iowa, stating that the current $725 is not sufficient [10] - Affordable housing is being driven up by the influence of private equity [10] - Affordable and accessible healthcare and pharmaceuticals are needed [11] Democratic Party Leadership - Two Democratic candidates called for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to step down after eight Democrats voted with Republicans to end the government shutdown [12] - Turk believes the party needs change and wants to focus on what the leader will do for Iowa and Iowans [13][14][15]

AI Impact on Labor Market & Economy - The market is considering the potential impact of AI expansion on the labor market, with concerns about job displacement [1] - There's uncertainty regarding AI's impact on the economy, specifically whether it will increase the unemployment rate [2] - While AI implementation is expected to create productivity gains for companies, the macro-level impact, especially by 2026, remains uncertain [5][6] Affordability & Fiscal Policy - The rising prices of education, healthcare, and housing are consuming a larger share of consumer spending, impacting affordability [9][10] - The Federal Reserve has limited tools to directly address the affordability crisis, particularly in sectors like housing [11][12] - Fiscal policy, particularly actions by Congress, such as rolling back tariffs on food or providing tax incentives for first-time home buyers (e g, $5,000 or $10,000), could help improve affordability [14][15][16] Inflation & Economic Growth - There's a risk of a second inflation surge due to growth driven by AI and fiscal policy, particularly the immediate expensing of capital expenditures [19][20][21] - The market rally is potentially anticipating an economic boom, leading to increased investment in sectors like technology stocks [22] - The narrative is shifting from concerns about economic slowdown to expectations of accelerated growth, potentially leading to increased corporate earnings by 2026 [25][26] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The potential for political influence on the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially regarding interest rate cuts, is a concern [27][30] - Disagreement among Federal Reserve members regarding interest rate policy is increasing, potentially leading to less clear messaging from the Fed [31][32] - The choice of the new Fed chair in May 2026 is critical, as they will need to balance the risks of high inflation against a potentially weaker labor market [28][29]

There's a lot of big institutions that might even be behind some of this sell-off that want to drive it lower because they want to get in. I think there's huge institutional big money demand to buy Bitcoin. It's just waiting to pounce. And so once that pounce happens, we're going to be at 150. I still think, and the last time I was on, I said I think we'll be at 150 by the end of February. I hate to do it, but facts change, I got to change. I'm going to back it up just a little bit and say I think we'll be ...

We turn now to this week's historic shakeup in South Florida where Miami voters elected former county commissioner Eileene Higgins as the first ever woman to lead the city. She is also the first declared Democrat to win Miami's mayoral race in nearly 30 years. Higgins beat her Trump endorsed opponent by roughly 20 points. And Mayor Elect Higgins joins us now. Congratulations. Uh first of all, uh what a win on so many levels. Um and to what do you uh to what do you point to that that made your your campaign ...