Affordability
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Home Prices Are FINALLY Falling, Is Real Estate About To ROLL OVER?
From The Desk Of Anthony Pompliano· 2025-08-29 21:00
Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-28 09:55
Housing Market Overview - Housing affordability is poor, hindering market recovery [1] - Rising inventory levels are further constraining housing recovery [1] - The housing market's recovery is expected to be gradual [1]
Why E.l.f Beauty bought Hailey Bieber's Rhode for $1 billion
CNBC· 2025-08-25 16:01
Acquisition Analysis - ELF Beauty's acquisition of Road for $1 billion is being questioned, especially with increasing tariffs [1][2] - The acquisition aims to build a cosmetics empire for ELF Beauty [2][3] Pricing Strategy & Tariffs - Tariffs have led ELF Beauty to increase prices by $1, marking the second price hike in 3 years [1] - The price increase may impact ELF Beauty's reputation for affordability [1] Customer Perception - Customers value ELF Beauty's transparency and creative advertising [2] - ELF Beauty is known for offering "dupes" or premium knockoffs at affordable prices [2] Brand Loyalty - ELF Beauty has cultivated a devoted fan base, particularly on social media [1]
'We need to try something new': Maine oyster farmer challenges Sen. Collins
MSNBC· 2025-08-21 19:30
On paper, Susan Collins Senate seat would seem like a relatively easy pickup for Democrats in the midterms if she had not proven such a formidable opponent in Maine. Since she was elected in 1996, Collins has trounced every single challenger that has come her way. And in her last campaign in 2020, she beat Democratic opponent Sarah Gideon by more than eight percentage points, while Donald Donald Trump lost Maine by more than nine points.Already a slate of Democrats have stepped up. Each believing they can u ...
