4 May 2025 | 7:12PM EDT Oil Comment: Nudging Down Our Price Forecast on Higher OPEC Supply Assumption From July Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important discl ...

原油市场内参：押中4月油价暴跌！顶级投行集体转向，市场误读欧佩克+增产真实目的，交易者如何 调整仓位配置？当前反弹下能否追涨？油价目标位全解析，从宏观推演到技术面狙击>> 相关链接 ...

全球基准布伦特原油同样重挫3.9%，下跌2.39美元至每桶59.09美元。今年以来，油价已累计下跌超过20%。 由沙特阿拉伯领导的OPEC+八国生产商集团 周六达成协议 ，决定在6月份再次增产41.1万桶/日。 这一增产规模几乎是高盛原先预测的14万桶/日的三倍。 OPEC+在两个月内总共将向市场投放超过80万桶/日的额外供应，这一供应量足以对本已脆弱的市场构成严重冲击。 这一决策标志着OPEC+战略的关键转变， 优先考虑产量纪律而非价格稳定。市场的讯息很明确：长期低油价不是预测，而是一个计划。 供应激增远超预期，分析师下调预测 增产的一决定令市场措手不及，因为就在一个月前，OPEC+已经宣布5月增产相同数量，连续两个月的增产计划让市场承压。 OPEC+连续两个月大幅增产令投资者措手不及，国际油价暴跌超4%。 周一，美国原油期货价格大跌4.27%，跌幅达2.49美元，至每桶56.30美元。 此外，该联盟的长期威胁——美国页岩油复苏和全球能源转型——正在显现。如果美国页岩油生产商响应油价下跌而提高产量，OPEC+ 优先考虑合规性，而 非价格稳定的决定可能会适得其反，从而进一步扩大供应过剩。 看跌前景强劲——但风 ...

OPEC+连续两个月大幅增产令投资者措手不及，国际油价暴跌超4%。 周一，美国原油期货价格大跌4.27%，跌幅达2.49美元，至每桶56.30美元。 由沙特阿拉伯领导的OPEC+八国生产商集团周六达成协议，决定在6月份再次增产41.1万桶/日。这一增产规模几乎是高盛原先预测的14万桶/日的 三倍。OPEC+在两个月内总共将向市场投放超过80万桶/日的额外供应，这一供应量足以对本已脆弱的市场构成严重冲击。 全球基准布伦特原油同样重挫3.9%，下跌2.39美元至每桶59.09美元。今年以来，油价已累计下跌超过20%。 分析认为，投资者必须权衡两个因素： 这一决策标志着OPEC+战略的关键转变，优先考虑产量纪律而非价格稳定。市场的讯息很明确：长期低油价不是预测，而是一个计划。 供应激增远超预期，分析师下调预测 增产的一决定令市场措手不及，因为就在一个月前，OPEC+已经宣布5月增产相同数量，连续两个月的增产计划让市场承压。 这次增产的直接原因是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦。多位OPEC+代表透露，除非各国同意减产协议，否则沙特考 虑以类似的速度逐步取消其此前承诺的220万桶/日自愿减产措施。 ...

FILE PHOTO: A Chevron gas station is seen in Austin, Texas, U.S., October 23, 2023.Chevron stock fell on Friday as the oil major's profit declined on the steep decline in oil prices this years. Chevron's net income declined more than 30% to $3.5 billion, or $2 per share, from $5.5 billion or $2.97 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, Chevron earned $2.18 per share.Here is what Chevron reported for the first quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of an ...

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 上海报道 4月30日24时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 此次搁浅过后，国内成品油调价呈现"三涨四跌二搁浅"的格局，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较年初相比分别 下调425元、410元。 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来看，期初欧佩 克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国之间因遵守生产配额问题 而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供 应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前 景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影 响，变化率正向区间接连收窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带有不确定 性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走势。新周期伊始，国内 测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市 场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a stabilization in production, achieving approximately 950 barrels of oil per day, with expectations to increase this by 50% by the end of the year [12][19] - Lease operating expenses (LOE) were reduced from over $800,000 per month to an average of $765,000 in 2024, with a target of around $700,000 per month for 2025 [65][66] - The company is hedged at 70% or greater at $70 per barrel through 2025, which provides some stability against market fluctuations [30][84] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on the Seven Rivers waterflood project, with plans to develop 250 patterns, each expected to produce 20 barrels of oil per day [19][20] - The horizontal drilling potential in the San Andres formation has been identified, with 50 wells expected to yield 300 to 500 barrels of oil per day [16][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is navigating volatility in oil pricing and tariffs that impact oil prices, which is a concern for the overall market [7][78] - The management expressed optimism about the oil market, suggesting that any reduction in oil prices may be short-lived due to the social costs faced by oil-producing countries [84] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to acquire a 10% royalty from the seller for approximately $15 million, which is expected to be accretive to shareholders [11][72] - Future strategies include cutting general and administrative expenses and lease operating expenses to improve profitability [21][74] - The company aims to make at least one acquisition in the year, focusing on Permian properties and gas opportunities [22][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2024 but emphasized the importance of infrastructure repairs and upgrades for future profitability [20][25] - The company expects a significant improvement in 2025, with plans to increase production and reduce costs [19][21] - Management is optimistic about the potential for horizontal drilling and workovers, indicating a bright future for the company [90][91] Other Important Information - The company has made significant strides in cleaning up its balance sheet, including settling liabilities and reducing debt [43][45] - The management team is committed to a balanced approach to funding, avoiding excessive equity dilution and debt [48][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are your largest concerns that might negatively impact your plans? - The largest concern is market volatility, particularly oil prices and tariffs [78] Question: What are your plans regarding future use of stock in lieu of cash for accounts payable and other liabilities? - The company plans to use stock sparingly for settling debts related to acquisitions and services [80] Question: Are you still working on the workover wells, or is this less of a priority compared to Seven Rivers? - Workovers are a top priority and are tied to the development of the Seven Rivers project [87] Question: What are you doing to negotiate and benchmark parts, pumps, and other goods necessary for productivity savings? - The company conducts thorough bidding processes to ensure the best value for parts and services [95] Question: If oil prices recover to $85 to $90 per barrel, would you increase production faster? - The company would accelerate workovers and drilling if funding allows, but will proceed cautiously [102] Question: Is the $52.8 million revenue sharing of volumetric funding arrangement with Enstream Capital still on track for June 2025 closing? - The lender has indicated that the deal is still on track, but the company remains cautious [106][109] Question: What is your relationship with drilling permits in New Mexico? - The regulatory environment has improved, potentially reducing the permit process from eight to six months [115]

Consolidation Sets Stage for Next RunOn Tuesday, the price of crude oil continued to compress as the day’s trading range was the smallest since the early-April interim swing high, which was followed by a sharp drop to $55.23. At the time of this writing, crude is set to end the day’s session with a narrow range inside day with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12.A decline below the low of the day has Monday’s low of $60.68 as the next lower target, followed by Friday’s low of $59.54. On the upside, there i ...

Core Viewpoint - Arrow Exploration Corp. provides an operational update highlighting production growth, financial strength, and ongoing drilling activities in Colombia's Llanos Basin, particularly in the Carrizales Norte field [1][4][21]. Production - Total corporate production exceeds 4,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) net, with the original six horizontal wells at Carrizales Norte stabilizing in line with reservoir models [3][7]. - Significant additional production is anticipated before the end of Q2 2025, with planned development wells in the C7 and Ubaque reservoirs [4][21]. - The CN HZ10 well is currently producing 1,183 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) gross (591 BOPD net) with a decreasing water cut of 21% [12][21]. Financial Position - As of April 1, 2025, the company holds a cash balance of US$25.1 million and has no debt, providing a strong financial foundation [5][7]. - Corporate operating netbacks at a US$65 per barrel Brent oil price are US$39 per barrel, indicating robust profitability [5]. Drilling Operations - The company has drilled two production wells from the Carrizales Norte field, with the CN HZ9 well producing at a stabilized rate of 244 BOPD gross (122 BOPD net) despite a high water cut of 90% [9][10]. - The CN11 well is currently being drilled, targeting the C7 formation, with completion expected in two weeks [13][21]. - The East Tapir 3D seismic acquisition program has been completed ahead of schedule and under budget, enhancing the company's development prospects [18][21]. Future Outlook - The company is continuously reviewing its US$50 million budget and drilling schedule in light of current economic conditions and oil price volatility [16][21]. - Arrow's strong balance sheet allows for flexibility in operations and potential acquisition opportunities in a volatile market [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil anticipates a $900 million increase in quarterly profit due to higher oil and natural gas prices and improved refining margins, but faces challenges in Q2 as crude prices have dropped significantly [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company expects first-quarter earnings to be approximately $900 million higher than the previous quarter's profit of $7.4 billion, and about $100 million higher than the same quarter last year, which reported $8.2 billion [3]. - Brent crude averaged just under $75 per barrel, a 1.3% increase from Q4, while natural gas prices surged by 30% due to increased demand from a cold winter in the U.S. [4]. Market Conditions - Early Q2 has seen a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude dropping over 10% to around $65 per barrel due to tariff concerns, and natural gas prices in the U.S. falling more than 5% [5][6]. - If current price levels persist or decline further, it could significantly impact Exxon's results in upcoming quarters, particularly affecting refining margins [6]. Long-term Strategy - Exxon is focused on enhancing its long-term earnings capacity by investing in its most efficient resources and reducing structural costs [7][11]. - The company plans to invest approximately $140 billion by 2030 in its best assets and aims for an additional $7 billion in cost savings, potentially delivering an extra $20 billion in annual earnings and $30 billion in incremental cash flow by 2030 [9][10]. Historical Performance - In the previous year, Exxon achieved $33.7 billion in earnings and $55 billion in cash flow from operations, marking its third-best year in a decade despite lower average refining and chemical margins [8]. - The company's strong performance was attributed to growth in high-margin assets and effective cost-saving measures [8]. Resilience to Volatility - While short-term earnings may be affected by fluctuating oil prices, Exxon's investments in low-cost assets and cost-cutting strategies are expected to mitigate the impact of price volatility in the long run [11].