Since 1980, the U.S. has seen:– 6 recessions– 8 bear markets– Multiple wars & crisesS&P 500? +100x. ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently down 3% for the year, but billionaire investor Ray Dalio suggests an optimal allocation of 1% to Bitcoin in investment portfolios [1][6] Diversification Benefits - Bitcoin offers significant diversification benefits, remaining largely uncorrelated with major asset classes, which allows it to perform well even when other assets are declining [2][4] - Historical data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has averaged between 0.2 and -0.1 over a 12-year period, indicating low correlation [4][5] Market Perception - Investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a risky tech stock, leading to sell-offs in Bitcoin alongside tech and AI stocks, despite its long-term performance history [3][6] - Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with major asset classes and has been the top-performing asset in 10 of the last 13 years [8] Economic Context - The recent federal government shutdown and uncertainty regarding tariffs are prompting investors to seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets, which may enhance Bitcoin's appeal [9]

Core Insights - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a means for investors to diversify portfolios and manage risks during economic downturns [1][2] - Consumer staples are identified as a resilient sector during recessions, historically outperforming other sectors [4][5] Investment Strategy - Long-term investors should prepare for volatility and consider exposure to defensive sectors, which can provide reliable passive income during recessions [3] - Allocating a portion of capital to defensive ETFs like the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is recommended, especially as investors approach retirement [10][11] Sector Performance - Consumer staples have shown strong performance historically, with an average return of 14% in the 12 months preceding recessions and 10% in the 12 months following [6][5] - The sector has consistently outperformed others during recession periods since 1990, including notable economic downturns [5] ETF Details - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) has a yield of 2.71% and a diversified investment across various consumer staples categories [7][8] - Top holdings in the fund include Walmart (11.05%), Costco Wholesale (9.33%), Procter & Gamble (8.18%), Coca-Cola (6.62%), and Philip Morris International (5.77%) [12]

It's the first days of the month, which are usually bearish.Then, there's also the case that QT has been reduced.This takes time.Now, what's important in the coming week:- Unemployment dataThis is the primarily trigger for the FED to decide whether or not rate cuts are sufficient.Labor > Inflation.If the unemployment data rallies more than expected, the sounds of a recession will start to soar and that will mean that we're likely going to be getting QE.The past period has been volatile and markets have been ...

Black Friday sales at all time highAmerica is in a super recessionThe US economy is collapsingDebt is a powerful tool and being used to further destroy the economy to bring down the banks but in reality American tax payers will foot the bill.The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):BREAKING: American shoppers spent a RECORD $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up +9.1% from last year.Adobe Analytics, which tracks over 1 trillion US retail site visits, expects shoppers to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday and $5. ...

On this episode of Everybody’s Business, the deputy editor of Wirecutter explains how tariffs and recession fears may have delayed consumer discounts https://t.co/OjG6PbbLbY ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2026 Year-Ahead Outlook Industry Overview - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment and market dynamics as they relate to various asset classes, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, equities, and commodities [5][7][33]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Markets are expected to face a multi-modal macro risk distribution, with a base-case scenario suggesting a shift from a central mode to a right-side distribution indicating improving growth expectations but with increased overheating risks [5][7]. - The left-side tail risk, representing recession, is acknowledged but considered less likely compared to the overheating scenario [5][7][26]. Treasury Yields - Front-end Treasury yields are anticipated to remain in a bullish range, while the belly and long end of the curve may face bearish pressure due to risk-on trends and widening inflation breakevens [5][33]. - The 2-year note is highlighted as a key indicator for market expectations, currently positioned near critical levels around 3.50% [8][12][35]. Equities - Large-cap U.S. stocks are expected to lead a bullish trend into the first half of 2026, with higher volatility and potential drawdowns anticipated [5][13]. - Chinese equity indexes, such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, are noted for their bullish patterns, suggesting potential for reaching 2021 cycle highs [15][17]. Commodities - Base metals are expected to catch up to the strong performance of precious metals, with a longer-term bullish trend anticipated [5][21]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, contrasting with the bullish outlook for base metals [5][21]. Currency Outlook - A stronger U.S. dollar is anticipated in early 2026, with the potential for simultaneous strength in the AUD/USD pair, which is historically an outlier [5][16]. Inflation and TIPS Breakevens - The report suggests that bullish trends in base metals could lead to upward pressure on 10-year TIPS breakevens, which are expected to widen towards the 240-250 basis points range [20][66]. - A gradual rally in front-end yields is expected, with TIPS breakevens potentially widening if inflation pressures increase [20][66]. Risk Scenarios - The report outlines a left-side tail risk scenario where recession could lead to predictable market trends, but this is viewed as a lower probability outcome [26][68]. - A more aggressive bullish scenario for the 2-year note could indicate a recession outcome, leading to a significant break in consumption and labor data [26][40]. Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key levels, trends, and patterns in various markets to react to potential regime changes [7][12]. - The technical setup for the 2-year note suggests a potential target near 1.75% if bearish scenarios materialize [40][46]. - The report also discusses the potential for a steepening of the yield curve, particularly in the 2s/5s and 2s/10s curves, as markets navigate through 2026 [54][60]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected market conditions and investment strategies for 2026, highlighting both opportunities and risks across various asset classes.

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)In a deep or prolonged recession, attacks by technocratic authorities & political activists against digitally centralized assets will increase in volume & scope. Other forms of political or legal instability could also lower the safety of digitally centralized assets. ...

Mexico’s central bank cut its expectation for growth this year after the economy contracted in the third quarter, igniting recession fears for Latin America’s second-biggest economy https://t.co/Lr3D9Qdmwh ...

Market Catalysts & Economic Outlook - The market anticipates a potential rate cut next month, but tax and regulatory changes are another significant macro driver that should not be overlooked [1][2] - The economy appears to be in a soft patch, but upcoming tax cuts for both consumers and businesses are expected to provide stimulus [3] - The expectation is that the Fed will cut rates in December, further boosting the economy [3] - The primary concern is avoiding a recession, as current stock prices do not fully reflect the possibility of one [6][7] Consumer Spending & Market Impact - Tax cuts could lead to increased consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy [4] - Companies like Amazon may benefit from increased consumer spending, and the housing market could also see positive effects [5] Market Breadth & Growth - There is hope for a broader market rally, as the market had become narrowly focused on big tech names [8] - Small caps are starting to pick up, and a spreading out of earnings growth beyond tech names could revitalize them [8][9]