Core Viewpoint - The critical time node regarding the Taiwan issue is identified as 2028, with three significant dates: January 8 or January 15, May 20, and the U.S. election day. These dates will influence cross-strait relations and potential outcomes for Taiwan's political landscape [1]. Group 1: Upcoming Elections and Their Implications - The next Taiwan election is projected to occur on January 8 or January 15, 2028, which could mark a significant turning point in cross-strait relations depending on the election outcome [2]. - If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins, it would signify 16 years of DPP governance, potentially triggering provisions in the Anti-Secession Law regarding the loss of peaceful unification possibilities [2]. - The election results will determine the direction of cross-strait relations, with a DPP victory possibly leading to a more aggressive unification approach, while a victory for the opposition could favor peaceful unification [2]. Group 2: DPP's Position and Legislative Actions - The likelihood of the DPP pushing for "de jure independence" is considered low, as evidenced by the withdrawal of a proposal to change the name of the cross-strait relations law, which would have escalated tensions [4][5]. - The DPP may still employ various strategies to promote "Taiwan independence" rhetoric and deepen cross-strait tensions, despite the reduced likelihood of formal independence actions [5]. Group 3: Mainland China's Response and Future Scenarios - Mainland China's actions leading up to the 2028 election are characterized as warning signals, with potential for escalation if the DPP remains in power post-election [6][7]. - The inauguration of the new Taiwanese leader on May 20, 2028, will be pivotal, as China's subsequent actions will depend on the leader's inaugural speech and stance on cross-strait relations [7]. - The outcome of the U.S. election, likely to occur around the same time, could also influence China's policy towards Taiwan, particularly if a Democratic administration is perceived to be more lenient towards "Taiwan independence" [7].

格隆汇1月7日｜国务院台办今日举行例行新闻发布会。发言人陈斌华表示，"台独"分子是分裂国家、破 坏两岸关系发展的违法犯罪分子，也是损害同胞利益的民族败类。我们已公布"台独"顽固分子14 人，"台独"打手帮凶12人。他说，凡是以身试法者，无论身在何处，我们都将采取一切必要的措施依法 惩治，终身追责。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The critical time node regarding the Taiwan issue is identified as 2028, with three significant dates: January 8 or January 15, May 20, and the U.S. election day [1]. Group 1: Upcoming Elections and Their Implications - The next Taiwan election is projected to occur on January 8 or January 15, 2028, which could lead to a continuation of the pro-independence DPP's governance for 16 years if they win [2]. - The outcome of the election will be pivotal for cross-strait relations, with potential paths leading to either peaceful unification or a more aggressive approach depending on the winning party [2][3]. Group 2: DPP's Position and Legislative Actions - The likelihood of the DPP pushing for "de jure independence" is low, as evidenced by the withdrawal of a proposal to change the name of the cross-strait relations law, which would have triggered severe responses from the mainland [4][5]. - Despite the low probability of formal independence, the DPP may still employ various strategies to promote independence rhetoric and deepen cross-strait tensions [5]. Group 3: Mainland China's Response - Actions taken by the mainland, including military exercises, are currently of a warning nature, but could escalate if the DPP remains in power post-election [6][7]. - The inauguration of the new Taiwanese leader on May 20, 2028, will be another critical moment, as the mainland will assess its next steps based on the leader's inaugural speech [7]. Group 4: U.S. Election Influence - The U.S. election, likely to occur around the same time as the Taiwan election, could influence mainland China's policy towards Taiwan, especially if a Democratic administration is perceived to be more lenient towards pro-independence forces [8]. Group 5: Alternative Scenarios - Besides the DPP winning the election, two other scenarios are possible: the KMT winning or the absence of an election altogether [9].

发言人陈斌华宣布，"台独"分子是分裂国家、破坏两岸关系发展的违法犯罪分子，也是谋"独"引战、损 害同胞利益福祉的民族败类。截至目前，我们已公布"台独"顽固分子14人，"台独"打手帮凶12人。凡是 以身试法的"台独"分子无论身在何处，我们都将采取一切必要措施，依法惩治，终身追责。 1月7日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。 （总台央视记者 赵超逸 黄惠馨） ...

发言人陈斌华宣布，将"绿色司法打手"陈舒怡列为"台独"打手帮凶，依法终身追责。 （总台央视记者 张雪松 黄惠馨） 1月7日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。 ...

发言人陈斌华宣布，将刘世芳、郑英耀列为"台独"顽固分子，依法实施惩戒。两岸同胞同根同源、同文 同种，要和平、要发展、要交流、要合作，是两岸同胞的共同心声。刘世芳、郑英耀倒行逆施，"台 独"恶行累累，引起两岸同胞强烈愤慨。许多民众向国务院台办举报，要求对刘、郑二人进行惩处。 据央视新闻消息，1月7日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。 ...

陈斌华指出，"台独"意味着战争，是死路、是绝路。我们有充分信心和足够能力粉碎任何形式的"法理 台独"图谋，决不允许"台独"分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式把台湾从中国分裂出去！ 陈斌华表示，历史已经并将继续证明，搞"台独"分裂绝没有好下场，只会一败涂地。如果"台独"分裂势 力胆敢铤而走险、触碰红线，我们必将依据《反分裂国家法》，采取断然措施，予以迎头痛击。希望广 大台湾同胞认清"台独"邪恶本质和严重危害，坚定站在历史正确的一边，坚决反对"台独"分裂活动，同 我们一道维护台海和平稳定，守护中华民族共同家园。 新华社北京1月4日电 针对部分民进党籍民意代表提案修改"两岸人民关系条例"，国务院台办发言人陈 斌华4日答记者问表示，我们高度关注有关动向。该提案罔顾台湾社会主流民意和台湾同胞平安福祉， 公然挑战台湾是中国一部分的历史和法理事实，妄图改变世界上只有一个中国、大陆和台湾同属一个中 国的台海现状，赤裸裸推动"法理台独"，蓄意升高两岸紧张局势，破坏台海及地区和平稳定，用心险 恶、性质恶劣，充分说明赖清德当局和民进党是不折不扣的"和平破坏者""危机制造者""战争煽动者"。 有记者问：据台湾媒体报道，部分民进党籍民意代表 ...

"台独"意味着战争，是死路、是绝路。我们有充分信心和足够能力粉碎任何形式的"法理台独"图谋，决 不允许"台独"分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式把台湾从中国分裂出去！ 历史已经并将继续证明，搞"台独"分裂绝没有好下场，只会一败涂地。如果"台独"分裂势力胆敢铤而走 险、触碰红线，我们必将依据《反分裂国家法》，采取断然措施，予以迎头痛击。希望广大台湾同胞认 清"台独"邪恶本质和严重危害，坚定站在历史正确的一边，坚决反对"台独"分裂活动，同我们一道维护 台海和平稳定，守护中华民族共同家园。 央视新闻1月4日消息，国务院台办发言人陈斌华答记者问。 问：据台湾媒体报道，部分民进党籍民意代表提案修改台湾地区现行"两岸人民关系条例"，用"台湾与 中华人民共和国"定位两岸关系，并删除原条文中"国家统一前"字眼。对此有何评论？ 答：我们高度关注有关动向。该提案罔顾台湾社会主流民意和台湾同胞平安福祉，公然挑战台湾是中国 一部分的历史和法理事实，妄图改变世界上只有一个中国、大陆和台湾同属一个中国的台海现状，赤裸 裸推动"法理台独"，蓄意升高两岸紧张局势，破坏台海及地区和平稳定，用心险恶、性质恶劣，充分说 明赖清德当局和民进党是不折不扣的 ...

解决台湾问题，最终要靠硬实力，但雷霆万钧之前，还得先打赢认知战。舆论上，中国向来打的是明牌，把是非曲直讲清楚，让好的清清白白，坏的无处 遁形。对于恶人，必须用事实和道理锁定他的恶行，日后清算才能师出有名。比如赖清德，至少要对他"四重锁定"。 ▲ 2025年12月，中国人民解放军东部战区开展代号为"正义使命-2025"的联合演习。赖清德这只"井底之蛙"早已被瞄准锁定。 一、破坏政治生态，损害民生福祉 赖清德言必称"民主"，但他的真实目的是"民进党做主"，用"绿色独裁"服务"台独"议程。 赖清德上台后的吃相极其难看，完全把行政资源当成了清除异己的工具。对于在野党，他视如眼中钉、肉中刺，必欲除之而后快，不仅指使检调机关像抄 家一样搜刮在野党党产，罗织罪名搜查骚扰国民党民意代表，还严查重办民众党前主席柯文哲。他把在野党正常履行监督制衡权责视为"杂质"，执意发动 针对在野党民意代表的"大罢免"，简直到了"顺我者昌，逆我者亡"的程度。 岛内民众及各界人士普遍认为当前台"民主退步""民生凋零""司法已死""自由堪忧"。国民党主席郑丽文痛斥赖清德上任以来，岛内政局一直陷入死循环般 的恶斗，根本无法解脱。 如果说赖清德在政治上 ...

【环球网：#军演时台湾海巡署主委在办惜别宴##台湾网友批前方吃紧后方紧吃#】"正义使命-2025"演 习的余波仍在岛内震荡。民进党当局的一系列反应，就像一场荒诞剧。军演前夕，赖清德大放厥词，称 大陆"没有实力'武统'"；翌日，解放军实弹落点迫近台湾本岛，101大楼被解放军无人机精准拍摄的画 面，当晚就在央视新闻联播中播出。更讽刺的是，就在军演时候，台湾"海巡署"主委管碧玲却在高雄举 办"惜别宴"。有台湾网友称，"前方吃紧，后方紧吃"，道尽了民进党的荒唐。军演刚结束，民进党网军 又钻了出来，开始粉墨登场，公然污蔑解放军拍摄的101大楼的影像是AI合成，妄图用拙劣的技术谎言 掩盖其内心深处的恐慌。殊不知，这张照片正是解放军以实战标准对台湾本岛全域感知与精准侦察的铁 证。这份实打实的能力展示，对 "台独" 分裂势力造成强力心理震慑。台军连一架能飞到大陆沿海的侦 察机都不敢派，却还在网上吹嘘"AI造假"，分明是心虚到不敢承认。台湾民众早已不是十年前的民众， 他们看得真切：解放军的行动，从来不是"吓唬"台湾老百姓，而是为了定调台海规则、台海事务的主导 权不在台北。民进党当局的幻觉不止于此。最新民调显示，台湾地区五成民众 ...