Inflation
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X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-19 06:48
Stocks and Pound Steady Ahead of UK Inflation Data - Live https://t.co/dLFRS24hJ2 ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-19 02:48
The Reserve Bank of India’s inflation forecasting model is coming under increasing scrutiny from economists after the central bank consistently overestimated price pressures this year, contributing to a hawkish policy approach https://t.co/ZW7xNSqNfT ...
Barclays Ex-CEO Diamond Sees 'Healthy Correction' in Risk Assets
Bloomberg Television· 2025-11-19 01:32
We're repricing risk in a way. It's equities, it's AI, it's Bitcoin. It's really across the piece.So I don't think this is specifically about crypto or digital assets. I think for us, what's really interesting is we're a big investor in HYPE. The native token of Hyperliquid.Hyperliquid is, you know, is developed right here in Singapore by Jeff Yan and his team. And it's a decentralized non-custodial exchange and its native token HYPE over the last seven days is up a bit for Bitcoin and most of the other tok ...
Why the Fed’s Next Interest Rate Move Is Becoming So Hard to Predict
Investopedia· 2025-11-19 00:32
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after October's Fed meeting. Officials remain divided over December's rate decision. Hu Yousong / Xinhua via Getty Images Close Key Takeaways What should the Fed do to fight high inflation while preventing the job market from collapsing? Ask its 12 leaders and get 12 different answers. It's up in the air whether the Fed will lower its key interest rate for a third time in as many meetings in December. The chances of a rate cut were hovering around 50% Tuesday, acco ...
Appleseed Fund 2025 Annual Shareholder Letter
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-18 23:50
Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has seen prices surge to $4,250/ounce, marking a 60% increase year-to-date, with expectations for continued outperformance through the decade [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bullish Outlook on Gold - Foreign central banks are net buyers of gold, reversing a trend of net selling prior to the 2008 financial crisis, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions [8]. - Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with expectations for re-acceleration due to factors like a depreciating dollar and high fiscal deficits, leading investors to seek scarce assets like gold [8]. - The relative geopolitical and economic power of the U.S. is declining, with its share of global GDP dropping to 12.7% from 35% in 1944, prompting countries to trade in local currencies and increasing gold's appeal as a reserve asset [8]. - Gold is becoming more useful as a neutral reserve asset, with a growing share of international trade being conducted in local currencies and imbalances settled in gold [8]. - Western investors are under-allocated in gold compared to Asian investors, with U.S. family offices holding only about 1% in commodities, indicating potential for increased demand as allocations shift [8]. - Physical gold stores in the West are low and declining, with significant quantities moving to Eastern countries, which could lead to price increases as shortages develop [8]. - The global Debt/GDP ratio is at an all-time high, with countries likely to alleviate debt issues through currency depreciation against gold, supporting higher gold prices [8]. - Trust in U.S. institutions, including the Federal Reserve, is declining, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [8]. - The Trump administration's desire for a lower dollar is evident, with the dollar index declining by about 10% in 2025, enhancing gold's performance in dollar terms [8]. - Gold remains inexpensive relative to the U.S. monetary base, with the value of gold owned by the U.S. government representing only 15% of the monetary base, suggesting significant upside potential [9]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - The Appleseed Fund Institutional Class generated a 19.14% absolute return over the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the Morningstar Global Markets Index [12]. - The fund has been positioned for an inflationary, slow-growth economy, with a cautious approach that has limited investment returns during a strong stock market rally [12]. - The fund's current asset allocation favors sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and agriculture, with increased exposure to companies with non-U.S. dollar cash flows [15].
Stocks Retreat on Tech Weakness
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-18 21:38
The markets are looking ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report after Wednesday’s close for further information on the AI outlook. Also, earnings reports from Target on Wednesday and from Walmart on Thursday will provide insight into the health of consumer spending.The US Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +1 to a 7-month high of 38, stronger than expectations of no change at 37.US weekly initial unemployment claims were 232,000 for the week ended October 18. Weekly continuing claims rose +10,000 to ...
Why Lower Interest Rates May Not Fix America’s Job Market
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-18 20:10
Fed officials worry that the balance could quickly topple into a less curious and more economically painful wave of layoffs. The labor force participation rate was at 62.3% in August, a full percentage point below its pre-pandemic level. Several major factors behind the slowdown in both supply and demand for labor have nothing to do with interest rates, including the nation's aging population, President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration , the adoption of artificial intelligence technology, and uncerta ...
Walmart stock investors brace for earnings
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-18 19:45
Over the past 20 years, Walmart has faced stiff challenges from e-commerce (Amazon) and big-box brick-and-mortar retailers (Target). At times, its retail dominance has been questioned, leading to investors selling shares. Recently, however, doubts have quieted, and Walmart's stock price has soared. One reason is the company's reputation as the low-priced leader at a time when consumers are increasingly cash-strapped. Another is Walmart's decision to take a page out of Amazon's book, investing heavily in e ...
Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin says assessing inflation is especially challenging in the absence of official statistics
WSJ· 2025-11-18 19:13
The Richmond Fed chief says assessing inflation is especially challenging in the absence of official statistics. ...