证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 09 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3352 | 0.28 | | 沪深 300 | 3852.9 | 0.56 | | 中证 500 | 5773.81 | 0.41 | | 中小盘指 | 3764.49 | 0.42 | | 创业板指 | 2029.45 | 1.65 | 《策略|特朗普的美国"梦"与现实——"新秩序"研究系列二》 1、政策视角下，特朗普 2.0 时代的"百日新政"有什么特征？从权力的 行使方式看，特朗普大量使用行政命令；从施政领域上看，特朗普的大部 分行政命令都集中在移民与边境安全、能源和贸易三大核心方面；从施政 节奏上看，行政法令的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of youth engagement in the development of China's western regions, highlighting the call from President Xi Jinping for young people to contribute to national modernization by working in these areas [1][6][11]. Group 1: Youth Engagement and Development - Youth are encouraged to pursue their ideals and contribute to the development of the western regions, which are seen as crucial for national progress [7][20]. - The western regions have significant potential for growth, with a GDP of 28.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 21.3% of the national total, indicating their role as a vital growth engine [10]. - The article notes that over 500,000 university students have participated in volunteer programs in the western regions over the past 20 years, showcasing the commitment of youth to these areas [20]. Group 2: Government Support and Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various supportive policies to encourage youth to work in the western regions, including financial incentives and job opportunities for volunteers after their service [26][28]. - Xi Jinping's repeated encouragement for youth to engage in grassroots work reflects a strategic vision for balanced regional development [11][22]. - The article highlights the success stories of individuals who have made significant contributions to local communities, demonstrating the positive impact of youth involvement [25][29].

Group 1: Strategic Importance of Sichuan - Sichuan has a unique strategic position in China's development, particularly in the context of the Western Development Strategy and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle [1] - The region is characterized by a dense population, strong industrial foundation, high innovation capability, and significant market potential [1] - In 2024, Sichuan's economic total is projected to exceed 6.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% in the first quarter of 2023 [1] Group 2: Collaborative Efforts in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle - Sichuan and Chongqing are enhancing strategic cooperation and policy coordination to build a collaborative economic zone [3] - The two regions are working together to unify 40 different electricity policies, facilitating cross-province services [4] - The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle has seen its GDP share of the national total increase from 6.3% in 2019 to over 6.5% in 2024 [5] Group 3: Industrial Development and Innovation - Sichuan is focusing on developing advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, aiming to attract businesses from along the Yangtze River [6][7] - The region has established 23 provincial-level strategic emerging industry clusters, with a total industrial scale exceeding 650 billion yuan [5] - In 2024, Sichuan plans to implement 320 key projects in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, with a total investment of approximately 3.7 trillion yuan [5] Group 4: Digital Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries - Sichuan is promoting the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of traditional industries, with over 1,200 digital workshops established by 2024 [9] - The province aims to enhance the green and low-carbon value-added industries, which are expected to grow by 10.2% [9] - The government is encouraging medium and small enterprises to adopt digital solutions to overcome resistance to transformation [9] Group 5: Open Economy and International Trade - Sichuan is actively building an open economy, with a focus on international trade and investment [10][12] - The province's import and export volume is projected to grow by 9.4% in 2024, returning to the trillion-yuan level [13] - Sichuan is enhancing its logistics capabilities, with 85 international and regional air routes and a total navigable waterway length of 11,000 kilometers [12]

Overview - Water conservancy is a crucial foundation for national economic and social development, directly related to flood safety, water supply safety, food security, economic security, ecological security, and national security [1][10] - In 2023, the number of ongoing water conservancy construction projects in China reached 41,014, a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [10] - The investment scale of ongoing projects reached 54,797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.81% [10] - The completed investment in water conservancy construction projects amounted to 9,089 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [10] Market Policies - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support water conservancy infrastructure construction, including guidelines for financial support, water resource conservation, and the promotion of contract water-saving management [5][7] - Policies aim to enhance the construction of major water conservancy projects, rural water facilities, and water-saving renovations, providing clear direction for the development of the water conservancy construction industry [5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the water conservancy construction industry includes suppliers of building materials such as cement, steel, and sand, as well as suppliers of hydropower equipment [8] - The midstream consists of water conservancy construction enterprises involved in surveying, design, consulting, supervision, and construction [8] - The downstream includes government departments, urban investment companies, and port enterprises, with government playing a leading role in planning, approval, and regulation [8] Competitive Landscape - As of March 2025, there are 304 construction enterprises with a level one or above qualification in water conservancy, including 36 enterprises with special qualifications [12][14] - Major companies include China Power Construction Group, China Railway Eighth Group, and China Water Resources and Hydropower Third Engineering Bureau, which have strong financial strength and project management experience [12][13] Development Trends - The importance of ecological protection in water conservancy projects is increasing, with a focus on ensuring harmony between water projects and the natural environment [24] - Investment in water conservancy projects in central and western regions is expected to increase, driven by national strategies such as the Western Development and Rural Revitalization [24] - Chinese water conservancy construction enterprises are likely to expand their international market presence through technology exports and engineering contracts under the Belt and Road Initiative [24]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 107.24 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.21 billion yuan, down 19.92% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.73%, with a net profit of 2.44 billion yuan, up 94.97% [1] - New contract signings decreased, but the backlog of orders remains strong, with new contracts totaling 138.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 17.95% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's engineering construction revenue fell by 10.53% to 92.95 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 2.41 percentage points to 15.56% [1] - New orders in infrastructure, housing construction, and other sectors were 116.1 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -22.19%, +17.56%, and -71.06% [1] - From Q3 2024 to the date of the annual report, the company secured over 260 billion yuan in new orders, approximately 2.5 times its 2024 revenue [1] Emerging Business Growth - In 2024, the mining and new materials sector saw significant growth, with the Asmara copper polymetallic mine project achieving sales of approximately 70,000 tons, leading to a revenue increase of 98.13% to 3.34 billion yuan [2] - The clean energy sector also progressed, with several photovoltaic projects contributing to a revenue increase of 33.26% to 610 million yuan [2] Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company reported a total expense ratio of 7.35%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in credit and asset impairment provisions [2] - Operating net cash flow improved significantly to 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, compared to a negative cash flow of 2.12 billion yuan in 2023, with Q4 showing a cash flow of 9.03 billion yuan, up 101.40% year-on-year [3] Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend of 3.6 billion yuan for 2024, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 50.02% [3] - Plans for 2025-2027 include a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60%, indicating a potential increase in shareholder returns [3] Future Outlook - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.15 billion yuan, 8.46 billion yuan, and 8.79 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.08, 8.75, and 8.43 [4]

编者按： 高山巍峨、江河奔腾，广阔的中国西部地区，描绘繁荣发展新画卷。 2024年4月23日，习近平总书记在重庆主持召开新时代推动西部大开发座谈会并发表重要讲话，强调要一以贯之抓好党中央推动西部大开发政策举措的贯彻 落实，进一步形成大保护、大开放、高质量发展新格局，提升区域整体实力和可持续发展能力，在中国式现代化建设中奋力谱写西部大开发新篇章。 一年来，西部12省区市牢牢把握高质量发展这个首要任务，把握战略定位、立足资源禀赋，抓重点、补短板、强弱项，进一步形成大保护、大开放、高质量 发展新格局。一个充满活力、生机盎然的西部，正成为高质量发展新高地。 4月23日，上游新闻联动红星新闻、贵州日报、云南网、西藏日报、群众新闻、奔流新闻、宁夏日报、青海日报、新疆画报、内蒙古日报·草原云、广西云- 广西日报，西部12省区市主流媒体共同推出《西部闯"新"记》大型联动报道，把镜头对准产业、生态、能源等典型案例，展现西部地区奋力开新局、闯新 路、绘新篇的生动实践。 at 100 5 3 UITAX PAT CRANASS 1234 4月16日，在内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市磴口县200万千瓦光储+生态治理项目区，红旗招展、人头攒动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the concrete pouring for the Hanjiang Grand Bridge marks a significant milestone for the Xi'an to Shiyan High-Speed Railway (referred to as "Xi-Shi High-Speed Railway"), establishing a foundation for the full line's connectivity [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Hanjiang Grand Bridge is the largest span beam and truss combination cable-stayed bridge in China, located in Shiyan City, Hubei Province, with a total length of 917.45 meters and a main span of 420 meters [1]. - The bridge features two main towers, each standing at a height of 186.5 meters, designed by China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co., Ltd. and constructed by China Railway 11th Bureau Group Co., Ltd. [1]. Group 2: Construction Challenges and Innovations - The construction faced significant challenges due to complex geological conditions and environmental factors, including high slopes, hard rock foundations, and large volume concrete works [2]. - A technology research team was established to overcome various technical difficulties, resulting in 54 patent applications and advancements in construction techniques, including intelligent temperature control for large volume concrete [2]. Group 3: Environmental Considerations - The project emphasizes ecological protection and green construction practices, with measures taken to minimize environmental impact during construction, such as conducting work during dry seasons and using ships for mud storage [2]. Group 4: Economic and Strategic Importance - Upon completion, the Xi-Shi High-Speed Railway will create a convenient high-speed rail corridor between Xi'an and Wuhan, reducing travel time from 5 hours to approximately 2.5 hours, thereby enhancing connectivity between urban clusters and supporting national development strategies [3].

Summary of Sichuan Road and Bridge Group Conference Call Industry Overview - Sichuan is a key area for the Western Development strategy, with significant improvements in infrastructure investment intensity and strategic positioning. The urbanization rate is below the national average, indicating substantial growth potential in highway infrastructure, which presents development opportunities for Sichuan Road and Bridge [2][3][12]. Company Insights - Sichuan Road and Bridge adopts an integrated investment and construction model, achieving operational capabilities 2-3 percentage points higher than typical construction firms. The controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, has increased its stake to nearly 80%, reflecting strong confidence from industrial capital and providing robust support [2][4][5]. - The company transferred loss-making businesses to Shudao Group for 650 million yuan, resulting in a loss reduction of approximately 500 million yuan, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 60% by 2025, with an expected annual dividend yield of 7% [2][5][13]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Sichuan Road and Bridge signed new projects worth 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with infrastructure orders accounting for 88% of this total, up 28% year-on-year. This indicates a significant improvement in order recovery [2][6]. - The company’s stock has shown excess returns since the controlling shareholder's stake increase, with a cumulative rise of 265% over five years, while the Shanghai Construction Index fell by 35% during the same period. However, there has been a pullback since late 2023 due to revenue and performance declines [2][8]. Market Dynamics - The investment amount for key projects in Sichuan Province is substantial, providing a stable development outlook for Sichuan Road and Bridge. The company is currently in a favorable upward cycle due to personnel adjustments and continuous order improvements [2][12]. - The company’s overseas business, although small, is accelerating, with 2023 overseas revenue at 2.211 billion yuan, accounting for 2% of total revenue. Key markets are in Central Asia and Africa, with new projects expected to generate additional business [2][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue and performance in 2025, following a challenging 2024. The projected revenue growth is modest, with a PE ratio expected to decline from 9 times in 2024 to 8 times in 2025, and further to 7 times in 2026, aligning with industry benchmarks [2][9]. - Sichuan Road and Bridge's advantages include its strategic location in a high-demand infrastructure market, a high dividend strategy, and a return to stable management and operations, all of which support a positive outlook for future growth [2][10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Sichuan Road and Bridge [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction of the national strategic hinterland is accelerating, with significant policy support expected to drive economic and investment growth in related regions [2][11] - Sichuan has been clearly defined as a national strategic hinterland province, with advantages in location, economy, resources, industry, and population [3][12] - The strategic hinterland construction is anticipated to focus on increasing investments in transportation infrastructure, manufacturing, warehousing, technology, and national defense, which will significantly boost demand for construction and engineering projects [3][14] Summary by Sections National Strategic Hinterland Construction - The national strategic hinterland is crucial for achieving national strategic goals and is expected to receive comprehensive support in terms of policy and funding [2][11] - The construction aims to enhance national security, optimize resource advantages, and balance regional economic development [2][11] Sichuan's Advantages - Sichuan is positioned as a transportation hub in the southwest, with a strong economic base (5th in GDP nationally in 2024) and abundant resources [3][12] - The province has a diverse industrial base and a large population, providing a solid foundation for strategic development [3][12] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to benefit from the strategic hinterland construction include transportation engineering, municipal projects, and building materials [7][14] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted as a core beneficiary, with significant order backlogs and high-margin projects expected to drive profitability [8][19] Financial Projections - Sichuan Road and Bridge's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 74.4 billion, 78.8 billion, and 82.8 billion respectively, with a current PE ratio of 9.1, 8.6, and 8.2 [8][19] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with forecasts of 50% to 60% from 2024 to 2027 [8][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the chemical products industry or the specific company being analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The company has established a dual main business structure focusing on civil explosives and lithium industries, with over 70 wholly-owned and controlled subsidiaries across various regions including China and several countries like New Zealand and Zimbabwe [17][18]. - The lithium segment has seen significant development, with the company entering the lithium industry in 2013 and currently owning two lithium mines, ensuring a stable supply of lithium resources through various agreements [17][18]. - The civil explosives segment boasts a production capacity of over 260,000 tons for industrial explosives and nearly 90 million detonators, positioning the company as a leading player in the industry [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was founded in 1952 and has expanded through acquisitions in the civil explosives and lithium sectors, with operations in multiple countries [17]. 2. Lithium Industry Overview - The company has two lithium mines: the Sichuan Lijiagou and the high-quality Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe, with production bases for lithium salt products [17][18]. - The company is expanding its lithium salt production capacity, with a projected total capacity of nearly 130,000 tons after the completion of new production lines [18]. 3. Civil Explosives Overview - The company has a comprehensive range of products in the civil explosives sector, actively participating in industry consolidation to maintain its competitive edge [17][18]. 4. Lithium Resource Layout - The company has secured lithium resources through various channels, including partnerships and long-term agreements with major clients like TESLA and LGES, ensuring a stable demand for its lithium products [19]. 5. Overseas Business Development - The company has developed a robust overseas business model, particularly in the civil explosives sector, leveraging its cost advantages and regional presence in Africa and Australia [19].