Let's talk about a tale of two economies. Uh we we talked about it uh in the Biden era where we kept talking about how the numbers uh looked so great for for the US economy compared to the rest of the world and yet a lot of people hurting uh in middle America, a lot of people hurting uh across the country. Uh and a lot of Americans pessimistic.That helped defeat Kla Harris. Uh how has that changed or are they still pessimistic. They're still pessimistic.And let me start with a poll that you guys referred to ...

Housing Market Analysis - U S homes are more unaffordable than the peak of the 2008 housing bubble [1] - Housing is now a politically protected asset class, suggesting long-term price increases despite potential corrections [1] Investment Opportunity - Suggests turning trapped equity into bitcoin [1]

Aesthetics aside, has the flood of new apartments in this area of Washington, DC made a difference to housing affordability? Very possibly https://t.co/Uss0IAHEa9 ...

Housing Market & Affordability - The US is short approximately 5 million housing units, requiring an additional 18% to 2 million units per year to prevent the shortage from worsening [1][12] - Technology can counter cost inflation in the housing sector, which historically has underinvested in tech compared to other industries [28] - AI-driven automation can significantly reduce labor costs, a major controllable expense for housing operators [29] - AI is helping to increase housing supply in areas that have relaxed zoning regulations [19][20] Elise AI's Solutions & Impact - Elise AI aims to enable fully autonomous buildings, where core operations run without human intervention [1][31] - Buildings using Elise AI have demonstrated 2% higher occupancy rates compared to the market average [15] - Elise AI's technology has helped customers like Equity Residential achieve up to 200 units per employee through centralized staff and AI communication [30] - Elise AI is expanding its AI solutions from housing to healthcare, focusing on automating administrative tasks and improving patient engagement [74][76] Future Vision - The ultimate vision is to reduce the percentage of household income spent on housing and healthcare from 42% to around 20% [3][96] - AI can facilitate greater mobility in the housing market by enabling shorter-term leases and reducing the labor required for apartment turnover [55][57]

Core Insights - The August 2025 Buying Power Report from Realtor.com® indicates that only 28.0% of homes on the market are affordable for the typical U.S. household, with the maximum affordable home price dropping to $298,000 from $325,000 in 2019, a decrease of nearly $30,000 [1][9] Economic Context - Despite a 15.7% increase in median incomes since 2019, higher interest rates have significantly reduced the purchasing power of American households, with mortgage rates around 6.75% leading to an additional $7,200 in annual costs for a $320,000 loan compared to 2019 [2][9] - The current typical listing price is $439,450, requiring nearly a 28% down payment for buyers [2] Regional Analysis - Major metropolitan areas such as Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, New York City, and Kansas City have experienced the most significant declines in buying power, with Milwaukee seeing a 10.5% drop in affordability [3][4] - In Milwaukee, the maximum affordable home price fell from $314,000 to $281,000, a decrease of $33,000 [3] Affordability Trends - While affordability has declined, some regions still maintain a relatively high share of affordable homes, except for New York City, where only 13.1% of listings were affordable in July [4] - Only six of the 50 largest U.S. metros have seen an increase in buying power since 2019, with Cleveland, Ohio, leading with a 4.4% increase in affordable home prices [6] Buyer Behavior - The decline in buying power is reshaping buyer behavior, leading many to compete for lower-priced homes, turn to rentals, or delay homeownership, particularly among younger households [11] - Sellers may need to adjust pricing expectations or prepare for longer market times due to changing demand dynamics [11] Future Outlook - Restoring lost buying power will likely depend on lower mortgage rates, stronger wage growth, and an increase in housing supply, especially in the affordable segment [11]

Aesthetics aside, has the flood of new apartments in this area of Washington, DC made a difference to housing affordability? Very possibly https://t.co/53TvgqvQr4Photo: Getty Images https://t.co/akfLXwUjvq ...

Mortgage Market & Affordability - Mortgage rates in 2025 slipped to the lowest level of the year, but affordability remains stretched, reaching levels not seen since the early 1980s when mortgage rates were in the double digits [1][2][3] - Despite lower mortgage rates, consumers still face challenges in qualifying for loans, compounded by headwinds such as student loan repayments, impacting around 10% in July [7] - Builders are offering rate buy-downs as low as 399% for 30-year mortgages on new homes to offset affordability challenges [7] Housing Supply & Demand - A July home building survey indicated a 7% pullback in starts, but starts are still about 5% above historical norms relative to orders [4] - Spec home levels are elevated, rated at a six on a scale of 0 to 10, the highest in several years, indicating inventory that needs to be worked through before pricing pressure eases [5] - The Covid winners in the Southeast, like Southwest Florida (Fort Myers, Naples) and Texas (Austin, Dallas), are now facing the most pressure due to prevalence of builders, second homeowners, and investors taking chips off the table [9] Homebuilder Performance & Outlook - Homebuilders are trading at 18 times book value and 14 times forward earnings, the highest multiple seen in a long time, reflecting optimism due to a 2% sequential increase in volume in July and a 3% year-over-year increase in orders [14][15] - Small-cap homebuilders are trading at a 47% discount to large-cap builders, compared to a historical discount of about 25% [16] - The company likes some small-cap names like Meritage and Taylor Morrison, and upgraded Schottenstein Macho due to its depressed valuation and strong returns outlook [17]

Economy & Tariffs - The Democratic Party initially predicted economic faltering and recession due to tariffs, but this hasn't occurred [2] - Concerns remain that tariffs will worsen inflation and affordability issues, especially for consumer goods [6] - There is disagreement on whether tariffs have significantly impacted prices [5] Economic Indicators & Performance - Job creation has decreased to near record lows [3] - Inflation reached a high of 9% but is now at 27% year-over-year [7] - Unemployment is at 42%, considered full employment, and GDP was 3% [7] Political Stance & Policy - Democrats advocate for a strong social safety net, including Social Security, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act [9][10] - The administration is accused of attacking these programs and nutritional assistance [10][12] - There are concerns about a bill that could negatively impact healthcare access and affordability [11] New York City Mayoral Race & Affordability - Affordability is a key issue in New York City, influencing the mayoral race [14][21][22] - One mayoral candidate is focused on addressing affordability, but his solutions are under scrutiny [14][23] - A proposed solution involves increasing the supply of affordable housing through public-private partnerships [24] Government & Free Market - The Trump administration is accused of attacking the free enterprise system and engaging in "pay to play" schemes [28][29] - There are concerns about political interference in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [27][28] - The President is criticized for bullying corporations and individuals [31][32]

Core Insights - The significant price difference between Melbourne and Sydney's housing markets is primarily driven by land value, with Melbourne's median house price at AUD 1.06 million compared to Sydney's AUD 1.72 million, a difference of AUD 658,000 [1][3] - Melbourne's real estate market has experienced the lowest price growth among all capital cities over the past five years, making it more affordable compared to Sydney [3][6] Housing Affordability - With a budget of AUD 1.06 million, buyers can purchase homes in 89.7% of Melbourne's areas, while in Sydney, this budget only allows for homes in 27.3% of the areas [3][6] - In popular Sydney neighborhoods like Glebe, Newtown, and Bondi, it is nearly impossible to buy a standalone house with a budget of AUD 1.06 million, often requiring compromises such as purchasing an apartment instead [6][7][8] Property Types and Locations - For AUD 1.06 million in Sydney, buyers may only afford a two-bedroom apartment or a larger one-bedroom apartment in desirable areas [8][9] - To purchase a townhouse or terrace house in Sydney, buyers need a budget of over AUD 1.5 million [9] - In areas like Blacktown, AUD 1.06 million could buy a renovated three-bedroom house, but this budget may soon only suffice for properties needing significant renovations [11][12] Comparison of Purchasing Power - With a budget of AUD 1.72 million in Melbourne, buyers can find properties almost anywhere, including good options in central areas like Richmond and Hawthorn, with two to three bedrooms available [13] - In contrast, Sydney's median house prices within 5 kilometers of the city center range from AUD 1.7 million to AUD 4.2 million, significantly higher than Melbourne's [13][14] - Melbourne's real estate market offers greater diversity and better affordability compared to Sydney [14]

Core Insights - Melbourne's CBD has the highest property sales volume in Australia, with an average of one apartment sold every four hours over the past year [1][4] - Despite a significant number of existing investors exiting the market due to high holding costs and land tax increases, new investors, particularly from interstate, are entering the market [3][10] - The median house price in Melbourne is now lower than in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, making it a more attractive investment option for buyers from other states [3][10] Sales Performance - In the past 12 months, Melbourne CBD led the country with 2,214 property sales, followed by Tarneit with 1,547 sales [1][4] - Other top-selling suburbs include Point Cook (1,183), Pakenham (990), Craigieburn (990), and Werribee (985) [4][10] Market Dynamics - Over 60 suburbs in Melbourne experienced daily property transactions, indicating a robust market despite investor withdrawals [3] - The increase in mortgage activity is notable, with record pre-approval numbers reported recently [7] - The upcoming increase in the first home buyer guarantee limit from AUD 800,000 to AUD 950,000 in January 2026 is expected to attract more buyers into the market [8] Affordability and Investment Trends - Affordability remains a key attraction for Melbourne, especially for interstate investors targeting growth corridors in the northern and western suburbs [10] - Despite rising holding costs, the long-term growth potential of Victoria continues to attract serious investors [10] - Many properties in Melbourne are currently priced below replacement costs, suggesting potential for market recovery driven by population growth and international migration [5]