futures in positive territory this morning. Join us now now for a look at the markets. Lori uh Kalvasina, she is RBC's capital markets head of US equity research.Good morning. >> Good morning. >> And the question that I would ask you is what do we do in this sort of topyturvy world of both.We're getting all these earnings reports, but I can't tell whether I'm supposed to focus on that or focus on what Trump is saying about tariffs in China. >> So, I I think unfortunately we have to deal with both right now. ...

Trump's bailout could have the added effect of hurting American farmers, who we should note are already suffering immensely under the effects of Trump's chaotic whipssawing global trade war. For the second time in a decade, Trump has picked a fight with China at the expense of American farmers who make up obviously a pretty sizable portion of his political base. You see, American farmers grow a lot of soybeans and China buys them.Last year, China brought over half, 52% of our total soybean exports. They are ...

REMINDER:Polymarket traders see only a 16% chance that Trump will follow through with 130% tariffs on China! https://t.co/MRotM33fnF ...

Apple CEO Tim Cook pledged to boost investment in China during a visit to the country, despite threats from Donald Trump to slap tariffs on its foreign-made products https://t.co/ZclTNc4Gt2 ...

Trade Performance - China's exports experienced the fastest growth rate in six months [1] - Strong trade momentum is evident despite ongoing U.S tariffs [1]

India and Brazil, two of the emerging-market giants are deepening their ties betting that a united front will help them endure the US broadsides and find new markets to skirt tariffs https://t.co/4npVljLyAu ...

Healthcare Policy Impact - Analysis indicates that nearly 25% of individuals under 65 in Florida could experience increased healthcare premiums if healthcare credits expire [1] - States such as Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Utah, South Carolina, and Alabama, which are states that Donald Trump won in the last election, would be significantly affected by potential healthcare premium hikes [2] Trade and Economic Policy - Goldman Sachs reports that US consumers are bearing up to 55% of the costs associated with Trump's tariffs [4] - The potential imposition of a 100% tariff on all goods from China led to immediate retaliatory actions from China [5] - China's reduced soybean purchases from the US are characterized as an "economically hostile act" [6] Misinformation and Awareness - Allegations that the Biden FBI secretly placed over 200 FBI agents into the crowd on January 6th have been refuted by Trump's own FBI director, Cash Patel [7][8] - Trump cited news footage of supposed chaos in Portland as justification for deploying troops into that city, but the news outlet cites sources close to Trump who say the videos he's citing are from 5 years ago [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia Pacific export market, highlighting trends in both tech and non-tech exports amid ongoing trade tensions and economic conditions. Core Insights 1. **Headline Exports Performance** - Asia's headline exports remained resilient in September, attributed to increased working days due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and Chuseok holidays, with Korea and China having four and three additional working days respectively compared to the previous year [9][10][8] 2. **Divergence in Export Types** - Tech exports have shown strong performance, driven by AI demand and a recovery in the memory cycle, with a year-to-date growth of 16.8%. In contrast, non-tech exports have slowed to a six-month low of 2.3% [15][16][8] 3. **Export Destinations** - Exports to the US have significantly weakened compared to other regions, with a notable decline observed from March to May and again from August to September. Conversely, exports to the Euro Area and intra-regional markets have remained strong [22][25][24] 4. **Impact of USD Weakness** - The weakening of the USD since April has led to a discrepancy between nominal exports in USD terms and local currency terms, potentially overstating the strength of headline export figures. Export prices in local currency terms have declined by 3% [31][32][8] 5. **Tariff Burden on Exporters** - Asian exporters have not significantly absorbed the tariff burden, as US corporates have offset costs through lower labor expenses and reduced profitability. This dynamic may change in the future [37][38][8] 6. **Capital Expenditure (Capex) Trends** - There are signs of slowing momentum in Asia's capital goods imports, indicating a potential decline in corporate confidence and capex decisions, with year-over-year growth slowing since August [43][44][8] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking non-tech export trends, as they account for three-quarters of Asia's total exports, which could impact overall economic performance [16][8] - The report also notes that early reporting economies account for 57% of Asia's nominal exports in USD, highlighting the significance of these economies in the overall export landscape [11][8] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Asia Pacific export market and its implications for future economic conditions.

Market Impact of Trade War - US farmers are facing a significant crisis due to tariffs, comparable to the 1980s farm crisis [4] - China, previously a major buyer, has reduced soybean purchases from the US to zero, impacting farmers' export markets [4] - China has found more reliable markets in Argentina and Brazil, signing 10-year contracts, exacerbating the crisis for US farmers [6][7] Economic Hardship for Farmers - Farmers are facing financial strain due to tariffs, increased input costs, and collapsing prices [5] - Farmers are losing $100 per acre on their crops, with soybean prices under $10 per bushel, while the break-even point is $11 per bushel [12] - Bankruptcies among farmers have doubled in the first seven months, indicating severe economic distress [15] Government Intervention and Policy - The Democratic National Committee (DNC) released an ad highlighting the negative impact of Trump's trade war on farmers [1] - The proposed solution of government bailouts is viewed as a short-term fix, with farmers preferring market access over bailouts [2][19] - Concerns are raised that government interference through tariffs is damaging markets and benefiting countries like Argentina and Brazil [20][21] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The trade war is disrupting established buyer-seller relationships, potentially leading to long-term market shifts [9][10][11] - Farmers are struggling to store harvested beans due to full bins, incurring additional storage costs [12] - Supply chain issues are evident, with farmers facing difficulties in obtaining necessary parts for their equipment [15]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced volatility, with the S&P 500 dropping as much as 1.5% at its lowest point during the session but recovering to trade positively for most of the day [2] - The S&P 500 ultimately closed down 0.2% after President Trump hinted at potential trade actions against China, particularly regarding cooking oil and soybean purchases [3] Economic Indicators - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a possible halt in tightening monetary policy related to bond holdings, which could have positive implications for market stability [4] - Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and Goldman Sachs exceeded earnings expectations, suggesting that the economic fundamentals remain strong [4] Industry Developments - Oracle's shift to AMD's artificial intelligence chips, moving away from Nvidia graphics processing units, may reduce concentration risk and could be beneficial for investors focused on AI-driven market growth [5] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding President Trump's tariffs raises questions about the future of the AI-supported market and its resilience against potential trade restrictions [5]