The central bank's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose faster in December. ...

Market Overview: A Day of RetreatU.S. stock indexes finished lower on Thursday, February 19th, 2026, as investors grappled with a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market's downward trajectory was further fueled by a "good news is bad news" reaction to robust economic data, which suggested that the central bank may keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated.By the closing bell at 4:00 PM ET, the S&P 5 ...

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 3.5-week high on Thursday and finished up by +0.19%.  Stronger-than-expected US economic news on Thursday boosted the dollar, as weekly jobless claims fell to a 5-week low, and the Feb Philadelphia business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high.  The dollar also has some positive carryover from Wednesday, when the hawkish minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting stated that "several" officials suggested the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation st ...

Treasuries ticked higher in choppy trading, ending a two-day selloff, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing concerns about the outlook for inflation. Yields were mixed, with the benchmark 10-year note falling to 4.07% and policy-sensitive two-year note yields marginally rising to 3.47%. Most Read from Bloomberg The market pared steeper losses earlier in the session after President Donald Trump’s comments about negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, warning that the nation had 10 t ...

Trade Deficit Overview - The trade deficit surged to $70 billion in December, marking a 33% increase from November [1] - Despite this spike, the overall trend in trade has been positive, with trade deficits generally decreasing over time [2][3] Economic Impact - Net exports have been a significant positive contributor to GDP, which is currently running close to 3% [3] - The trade deficit remains largely unchanged year-over-year, indicating that tariffs have shifted trade rather than significantly altering the deficit [5] Inflation and Economic Projections - Current CPI stands at 2.4%, similar to levels seen in April, suggesting that inflation concerns may have been overstated [8] - The anticipated economic downturn related to trade and inflation has not materialized as expected over the past 10 months [7][9] Future Trade Trends - There are signs of reshoring occurring slowly, contributing positively to trade revenues and improving the budget deficit to GDP ratio, which is now at 5.7% [8] - Projections for the trade deficit suggest limited improvement, with some forecasts indicating a potential increase rather than a decrease [10][11] Treasury Management - The Treasury Secretary has successfully aimed to reduce the budget deficit, and future strategies regarding short-term versus long-term issuance could impact the deficit further [12][13]

Investors and the White House may be betting on multiple interest-rate cuts this year, but the Federal Reserve just delivered a warning: The next move could be up, not down. Minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee released Feb. 18 show several Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if sticky inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s right: a resumption of interest-rate hikes if the nation’s labor market continues to stabilize but inflation persists. “Sev ...

Investors are dealing with a bout of Walmart (WMT) jitters. Shares of Walmart (WMT) seesawed on Thursday following below-consensus outlooks for the first quarter and full year. The company's stock dropped in early trading before reversing losses. The company checked a lot of boxes for the bulls. Operating profits grew faster than sales at all of Walmart's business segments. E-commerce sales rose by double-digit percentages at Walmart US and Sam's Club. And the retail behemoth uncorked a new $30 billion ...

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are experiencing volatility due to disappointing corporate guidance, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic data affecting interest rate outlooks [1][3] - Major indexes have softened after a strong performance led by technology gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 121 points (0.24%) to 49,542, S&P 500 down 13 points (0.19%) to 6,868, and Nasdaq Composite down 43 points (0.18%) to 22,712 [2] Economic Data - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 in February, significantly above the consensus estimate of 7.7, indicating continued expansion in regional manufacturing [4] - Initial jobless claims fell more than expected, highlighting the strength of the U.S. labor market [4] - Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates too soon, with some suggesting potential rate hikes if inflation persists [5] Corporate News - Walmart reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings but issued a cautious profit forecast for 2026, leading to a more than 3% drop in shares [6] - Nvidia is in focus due to a partnership with Meta Platforms for AI chips, although its stock has moderated ahead of its earnings report [7] - Robinhood Markets shares fell 11% after revenue missed forecasts and high expense outlooks were provided [8] - Moderna's stock rose 6% following FDA review news for its flu vaccine candidate [8] - Exxon Mobil shares increased by 2.9% as crude oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions [8] - Carvana's stock plummeted over 20% after reporting significant profitability loss in Q4 [8] - Smurfit Westrock shares surged 12% after an encouraging five-year financial forecast despite an earnings miss [8] Upcoming Events - Investors are monitoring "Fedspeak" from officials for monetary policy clues, with a primary focus on the upcoming PCE inflation data [9] - Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are influencing oil prices and the global inflation outlook [9]

Quick Read The personal savings rate collapsed from 6.2% to 4.2% over the past year. At 1.82% inflation $50K in annual retirement expenses will double to $102K over 25 years. Transfer receipts grew 9.3% year-over-year versus 4.1% wage income growth. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. If you're in your mid-50s and haven't seriously confronted your retirement numbers, here's the uncomfor ...

Core Insights - There has been a significant increase in borrowing due to high inflation, with new personal loans rising by 24% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, particularly among borrowers with low credit scores [1] - Credit card accounts also saw an increase of 11.7%, with growth observed in both subprime and superprime segments [1][2] - Despite signs of cooling inflation, prices remain approximately 26% higher than pre-pandemic levels, affecting consumer sentiment negatively [3] Borrowing Trends - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that 12.7% of credit card balances were 90 days or more overdue in Q4 2025, the highest level since 2011 [4] - Credit card balances increased by 4.2% at the end of last year, maintaining this growth rate for four consecutive quarters [4] - Personal loan balances reached a record high of $276 billion, remaining stable at about $8,400 per account compared to 2024 levels [5] Future Outlook - Credit card origination volumes are expected to moderate in 2026, indicating a potential stabilization in borrowing activity [5] - The overall sentiment suggests that the borrowing environment is settling down, despite the previous spikes in credit demand [5]