David Bianco, DWS Group Americas CIO, joins CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ to discuss this week’s tech earnings, the Fed’s rate-cut decision, and more. ...

meeting. Joining us here at Post9 is DWS Group, America's CIO, David Biano. David, thanks for coming in.>> Carl, thanks. >> Interesting action today in that we basically jumped up 60 points and it barely budged in the first couple hours. >> Yeah, it's uh looking like a great October, right.A treat. Um earning season's going well so far. Expecting it to go well for the rest of this week when we get 40% of S&P profits reported.But a day like today, again, the tech, the chip names are stealing everybody's inte ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to lead to an increase in inflation, depending on the extent and speed of these cuts [1] Group 1: Impact of Lower Interest Rates - Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, which can boost consumer spending on homes, cars, and business investments [2] - Increased demand from consumer spending can lead to rising prices if it outpaces supply, thereby pushing inflation higher [3] Group 2: Effects on Savings and Investments - Low interest rates result in lower returns on savings accounts and bonds, encouraging consumers to spend or invest in riskier assets [4][5] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Dynamics - Rate cuts typically weaken the U.S. dollar, as investors seek higher returns elsewhere, which can lead to higher prices for imported goods [6][7] - A weaker dollar contributes to imported inflation, adding further pressure on overall price levels [7] Group 4: Short-term Benefits of Rate Cuts - In the short term, rate cuts can help mitigate economic slowdowns by encouraging spending and investment, potentially softening recession impacts [8]

Group 1 - Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) experienced a significant stock decline of 10 points or 5.6% due to disappointing guidance related to margin pressure [1] - Despite concerns about a potential recession and tariff turmoil, Texas Instruments reported strong numbers, leading to a stock increase of over 12% since the positive commentary [2] - The company designs and manufactures semiconductors and related products for various applications, including industrial and automotive sectors [2] Group 2 - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential compared to Texas Instruments, suggesting a competitive landscape in the investment space [3]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.02% on October 24, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.48% and the 30-year note at 4.59% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.19%, marking its lowest level in a year [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

S&P all-time high.Nasdaq all-time high.The recession predictors are in shambles. ...

Economic Overview - The top 10% of earners account for nearly 50% of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% are only keeping pace with inflation, indicating a potential risk if high earners become more cautious in their spending [1] - The August Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed only 22,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2] - ADP data indicated a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, suggesting ongoing employment challenges [3] GDP and Consumer Spending - GDP growth was revised to 3.8% for the second quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%, marking a significant recovery from a -0.6% growth in the first quarter [5] - The increase in GDP was attributed to a reduction in imports and a greater rise in consumer spending, particularly in transportation, financial, and insurance services [4] Public Sentiment and Economic Outlook - A Fannie Mae survey found that 67% of consumers believe the economy is "on the wrong track," a 3-point increase from August [8] - Pew Research Center reported that 74% of U.S. adults view the economy as "fair/poor," with 42% attributing their negative outlook to rising prices and personal expenses [9] Investment Strategies - Experts suggest diversifying investments to include alternative assets, such as gold and real estate, to mitigate risks associated with stock market volatility [11][12] - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,350 per ounce, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability [12] - Real estate investment opportunities are available through platforms like Arrived, allowing individuals to invest in shares of vacation homes or rental properties with minimal capital [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a controversial perspective that the economy is not heading towards a recession, but rather the opposite is expected to occur [1]. Group 1 - The author has expressed a strong belief in a positive macroeconomic outlook, contrary to common recession fears [1]. - The article references previous writings that support this optimistic view, indicating a consistent stance on the economic situation [1]. - The author holds a beneficial long position in specific stocks, suggesting confidence in their performance amidst the current economic climate [1].

Core Insights - Major technology companies are investing billions in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers, which has led to a surge in AI stock valuations [1] - Analysts caution that the current cycle of AI-related capital expenditures may be nearing its end, potentially indicating a downturn in the bull market [2][3] Investment Trends - Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, describes the current AI investment as a "classic" capital expenditure cycle, which historically tends to end poorly, often leading to bear markets or recessions [2][3] - Despite these warnings, Clissold notes that the market rally is expected to persist in the short term, with most stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages [3] Market Outlook - Clissold emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in the AI sector, suggesting that while the current market sentiment is positive, it may not last indefinitely [4] - He highlights that mega-cap technology companies possess substantial cash reserves, which could prolong the AI-driven market rally compared to previous cycles [4] Sector Rotation - Clissold points out that historical data shows when market rotations occur, there are often alternative investment opportunities in other sectors, as evidenced by the performance of the Russell 2000 Value Index during past downturns [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of U.S. economic policies, global economic conditions, and market sentiment on gold prices and investment strategies [2][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,378.69 but fell by 1.77% ($76.62) last Friday, despite a 5.8% increase over the week [2][29]. - Year-to-date returns for gold stand at 61.8%, and returns from the end of 2022 to last Friday are at 133%, indicating a significant decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar over the past two years [2][29]. - Bitcoin experienced a 7.8% drop from its peak last week and has declined by 10.6% over the past three months [2][29]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - There are concerns that short-term gold and silver prices may have peaked, but during a bull market, corrections can present buying opportunities [2][29]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by fears regarding the health of U.S. regional banks, leading to a sell-off in bank stocks and profit-taking in gold and silver futures [2][29]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that the U.S. will continue to lower interest rates next year, which is seen as favorable for gold prices [3][30]. - The article suggests that global economic conditions are likely to worsen, particularly outside of China, with signs of stagflation becoming more apparent [5][30]. - Despite increased retail demand for gold and silver, the article posits that retail investors may not have sufficient capital to drive prices significantly higher [5][30]. Group 4: CFTC Data Summary - As of September 23, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1.1% to 493 million, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 5.1% to 6,231 million [6][10]. - The net long position in platinum increased by 24.8% to 28 million, while net long positions in copper turned positive after a significant decline [13][15]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, increased by 2.5% to 81.942, with a year-to-date decline of 9.8% [26]. - The ratio of gold prices to North American gold mining stocks has risen by 2.13% over the past two weeks, indicating a potential divergence in market performance [20][22]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the potential for inflation to resurge if the U.S. begins to lower interest rates, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve [34][29]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [34][29].