Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) reported a decline in both earnings and sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting a challenging consumer environment and lower volumes, partially offset by productivity gains and strong performance in certain growth categories [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, but down 35.7% year over year due to lower adjusted operating profit [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8% year over year to $2,979.1 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,990 million, with a 3.9% headwind from M&A and a 3% decline in organic net sales [3][11] - Organic net sales fell 3% due to a 3% decline in volume, while price/mix remained flat, with management noting a 100-basis-point headwind from retailer purchasing patterns [4][11] - Adjusted gross profit declined 17.1% to $698 million, with adjusted gross margin contracting 292 basis points to 23.4% [5] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks segment net sales fell 8.5% year over year to $1,209 million, impacted by a 7.0% adverse M&A effect and a 1.5% decline in organic net sales [6] - Refrigerated & Frozen segment net sales decreased by 6.5% to $1,251 million, with a 5.1% drop in organic net sales [7] - International segment sales declined 5.4% to $230 million, reflecting a 4.1% M&A impact and a 2.9% fall in organic net sales [8] - Foodservice sales decreased 1.3% to $288 million, with organic performance reflecting a 4.2% benefit from price/mix, offset by a 4.0% volume decline [9] Financial Health - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Conagra generated net cash from operating activities of $331 million, with capital expenditures totaling $219 million, resulting in free cash flow of $113 million [12] - The company ended the second quarter with net debt of $7.6 billion and paid a dividend of 35 cents per share [12] Future Outlook - Conagra reiterated its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales to range from a decline of 1% to growth of 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS anticipated between $1.70 and $1.85 [13] - The outlook factors in continued elevated inflation in the cost of goods sold, with core inflation expected to be slightly above 4% [14] - Total cost of goods sold inflation is projected at approximately 7%, with measures expected to raise costs by roughly 3% annually before mitigation efforts [15]

Widening the band within which the peso moves risks a modest rise in inflation, but that is less of a problem for Argentina’s government with midterms out of the way. Still, this is far from a full currency float https://t.co/onxloCNuZd ...

Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

Core Insights - Recent inflation data and comments from Fed officials have increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with markets now pricing a 25.5% likelihood of rates being lowered to 3.25-3.5% by January 2026, up from 15.3% a month earlier [1] Inflation Data - Softer U.S. inflation data has strengthened expectations for two or more Fed rate cuts in the coming year, with November's underlying inflation growing at the slowest pace since early 2021 and headline CPI rising 2.7% year over year, below forecasts [2] Fed Leadership and Rate Cuts - Comments from President Trump suggest that the next Fed chair will favor lower interest rates, contributing to market bets on additional rate cuts next year [4] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the Fed has room to ease interest rates, citing signs of weakening in the labor market, and suggested that any additional cuts might occur at a moderate pace [5] Financial Sector Impact - Anticipated Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 are expected to provide a significant boost to the financial sector, as lower rates could reduce capital costs for banks and enhance loan activity [7] - The Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index has gained 19.70% over the past year and 2.41% month to date, indicating strong performance in the sector [8] Consumer Discretionary Sector - Lower interest rates are expected to improve consumer access to credit and boost spending power, positively impacting profit margins in the consumer discretionary sector, which has seen a 7.17% increase year to date and 2.47% month to date [10] Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks, which rely heavily on external borrowings, are likely to benefit significantly from lower interest rates, allowing for increased capital availability and refinancing of existing debt at cheaper rates [12]

The big risk in the market's mind is that as the government both fiscal and monetary policy moves are towards easing will inflation take off again. That's the biggest question we face. We have a strong point of view on it.But the burden of proof is on us because inflation does seem to have been stuck in this 2 and a half to 3% range for a while now. So we have to answer that question and I think the biggest answer to the question is if uh real growth rates start accelerating now uh we believe inflation will ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to close the week positively, supported by persistent demand and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central banks continue to purchase gold, contributing to price stability [1] - Resilient inflows into ETFs are also supporting gold prices [1] - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a significant factor maintaining support for gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data was below expectations, leading to a rally in Wall Street [1] - Economists advise caution in interpreting the inflation report due to data collection issues during the government shutdown [1]

Eurozone consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened in December despite cooling inflation and economic resilience against tariffs, a monthly indicator showed. ...

Global Fixed Income Outlook - The current global fixed income landscape is characterized by rising yields, particularly influenced by the Bank of Japan's recent actions, with Japan's 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 and France's 30-year yields at their highest since 2009 [1][3] - The Federal Reserve remains in an easing mode, with future rate cuts dependent on inflation and labor market conditions, while the European Central Bank appears to have paused its rate cuts [2][3] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing value in global bonds as interest rate differentials shrink, making non-US dollar denominated bonds more attractive for investors who previously found little incentive to invest globally [4][8] - US-based investors are encouraged to consider global bonds for diversification and potential strong performance, especially if the dollar weakens [8] Market Dynamics and Projections - The recent CPI report has led to market speculation about the Fed's next moves, with expectations for a potential rate cut in March now above 50% [9][10] - The labor market remains a critical focus, with concerns about job losses and rising unemployment rates potentially influencing the Fed's outlook and future rate cuts [16][18]

Group 1 - The importance of investing retirement savings to ensure growth that outpaces inflation [1] - Common mistakes to avoid when investing in IRA or 401(k) plans in 2026 [2] - Investing too conservatively can lead to insufficient retirement savings, with a comparison of potential outcomes based on different investment strategies [3][4][5] Group 2 - The risks of selling off assets during stock market downturns and the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective [6][8] - Recommendations for managing investments based on proximity to retirement, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [9]

Economic Sentiment and Inflation Metrics - The final December reading for the University of Michigan sentiment index decreased to 52.9%, marking the weakest level since November's 51 [1] - Current conditions also saw a decline, with the index dropping to 50.4%, setting a new all-time low, previously at 50.7% [2] - Expectations fell to 54.6%, the weakest since November when it was 51 [3] - The one-year inflation rate increased slightly to 4.2%, while the 5 to 10-year inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2% [3] Market Reaction - Despite the weaker-than-expected economic data, equity markets, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached new session highs [4] - The University of Michigan sentiment index has not aligned with typical correlations to equity market movements [4]