【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间周三（6月25日），美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌4.02BPs报 3.7786%，3年期美债收益率跌1.14BPs报3.7484%，5年期美债收益率跌1.59BP报3.845%，10年期美债收 益率跌0.59BP报4.2906%，30年期美债收益率跌0.31BP报4.8311%。 新华财经北京6月26日电（王菁）债市周四（6月26日）稍回暖，国债期货主力多数收平，银行间现券收 益率回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放3058亿元，临近季末，资金利率涨跌互现，月内品种仍延续上 行。 机构认为，总量工具观察期，维持流动性充裕诉求下，预计MLF、买断式逆回购等常规流动性工具将 维持净投放。央行净投放展示呵护态度，但季末资金面仍存扰动，机构交易偏谨慎。债市关键变量仍然 缺位，震荡格局难免。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数持平，30年期主力合约涨0.10%报120.720，10年期主力合约跌0.02%报108.950，5年 期主力合约持平于106.170，2年期主力合约持平于102.510。 银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。截至发稿，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率 ...

We're looking at a market that seems to be pricing in more and more Fed rate cuts. We're thinking about maybe three pricing in two, of course, thinking about maybe we'll get to pricing in three and that's pushing futures higher a bit here in Europe and also in the United States. At how will the market deal with some sort of shadow Fed chair situation.Is that what we're looking at here. Well, first of all, we're already seeing the impact in terms of a softer dollar. We're seeing slightly softer yields.I don' ...

Core Viewpoint - Idorsia Ltd. successfully held bondholder meetings to approve amendments to the terms of its convertible bonds, extending their maturity dates significantly [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bondholder Meetings - Two bondholder meetings were conducted for Idorsia's CHF 200 million convertible bonds maturing in 2025 and CHF 600 million convertible bonds maturing in 2028 [2]. - The amendments include extending the maturity date of the CB 2025 to July 17, 2034, and the CB 2028 to August 4, 2038 [2]. Group 2: Voting Outcomes - A significant majority of 89.5% of CB 2025 holders and 93.5% of CB 2028 holders voted in favor of the amendments, surpassing the required two-thirds majority [3]. - The amendments will become binding upon approval by the higher cantonal composition authority and are contingent on the completion of the repurchase offer for both bonds [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Idorsia Ltd. aims to challenge medical paradigms and develop transformative medicines, positioning itself as a leading biopharmaceutical company [6]. - The company is headquartered near Basel, Switzerland, and has a strong focus on small-molecule drug discovery [7].

Market Overview - The current market environment is characterized by a significant amount of cash, approximately $7 trillion, held in money-market funds, which is expected to flow into dividend-paying stocks as rates decline [2][10] - Investors have shown a tendency to react to market fears, leading to fluctuations in cash holdings within money-market funds [3] Economic Concerns - The U.S. government's deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2025, with an additional $2.8 trillion expected from the "Big Beautiful Bill" over the next decade, raising concerns about higher Treasury yields and interest rates [4] - This situation creates a potential "doom loop" where increasing debt leads to higher servicing costs, further exacerbating the deficit [4] Investment Opportunities - As interest rates fall, yields on money-market funds and Treasuries are expected to decrease, prompting investors to seek higher income from dividend stocks [10] - Three specific dividend-paying stocks are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this cash flow: Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund (NAD), Dominion Energy (D), and Union Pacific (UNP) [10] Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund (NAD) - NAD is currently trading at a 4.9% discount to its net asset value (NAV), providing an opportunity to purchase municipal bonds at a lower price [11] - The fund offers an 8.1% dividend yield, which is tax-free for most Americans, making it an attractive investment [13] Dominion Energy (D) - Dominion Energy offers a dividend yield of 4.9% and is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for energy, particularly in data centers [14] - The stock has potential for recovery as it has resumed dividend hikes after a previous cut, and its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16 is below its five-year average [15] Union Pacific (UNP) - Union Pacific has a lower yield of 2.4% but is considered to have upside potential due to ongoing trade discussions and tariff negotiations that could positively impact its operations [16][17] - The company has a "Dividend Magnet" effect, indicating that its dividend growth is overdue, which could attract investor interest as cash flows from money-market funds increase [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the convertible bond market is experiencing a bull market driven by policy support, supply-demand imbalance, and capital allocation needs, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high since June 2015 [1] - Since September 24, 2024, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has accumulated over a 20% increase, entering a technical bull market phase [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is a key driver of the bull market, with the market's outstanding scale shrinking from over 870 billion yuan at the beginning of 2024 to below 680 billion yuan currently [1] Group 2 - The median conversion premium rate in the convertible bond market is close to 30%, with some bonds exceeding 100%, indicating a high valuation state driven by supply-demand imbalance and capital [2] - Investors may not continue to allocate convertible bonds at high premiums if the equity market is extremely weak, as both conversion and holding to maturity could lead to losses [2] - The ongoing bull market in convertible bonds raises the risk of forced redemption, as companies often include redemption clauses that can be triggered under certain conditions [2] Group 3 - Overall, the valuation compression space for convertible bonds is limited under the current institutional capital allocation and supply contraction backdrop, while investors need to be cautious of forced redemption risks [3] - It is advisable to select convertible bonds with good credit quality and avoid those with potential rating downgrades [3] - Despite a noticeable decrease in the number of delistings in the convertible bond market this year, caution is still warranted for bonds with weak credit quality [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities recently released a research report on U.S. Treasury bonds, analyzing the characteristics and behavioral logic of U.S. Treasury investors from the demand side, and forecasting the market supply-demand pattern for the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Investor Structure and Behavior - Global investors currently hold over $26 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, with international and overseas investors holding $8.6 trillion, accounting for 33% of total holdings, making them the largest buyers [3]. - Broad-based mutual funds hold $5 trillion, representing nearly 20% of the total, while the Federal Reserve is projected to hold $3.8 trillion by the end of 2024, accounting for about 15% [3]. - The combined holdings of these three categories consistently exceed 60% [3]. - Other investors include individual investors, commercial banks, state and local governments, pension funds, and insurance companies, ranked by their holding sizes [3]. Motivations and Strategies - The Federal Reserve, as a policy-driven institution, primarily uses medium to long-term bonds, with its buying and selling actions directly linked to balance sheet adjustment goals [3]. - Overseas official institutions' bond purchasing decisions are influenced by factors such as exchange rates, trade balance, and financial stability, often showing a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [3]. - Private sector investors tend to engage in carry trades for returns, while U.S. residents exhibit a "buy high, sell low" behavior, dynamically reallocating between stocks and bonds [3]. - Hedge funds prefer basis trading strategies, while commercial banks' bond purchases are significantly affected by loan-to-deposit ratios and maturity structures [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may conclude its balance sheet reduction process by the end of the year and potentially halt its reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings [4]. - Overseas official institutions are expected to have limited motivation to reduce holdings in a weak dollar environment, although the declining attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset poses a significant risk [4]. - Private institutions face pressure from dollar depreciation, which could diminish the yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries if they engage in currency hedging [4]. - U.S. residents are less likely to significantly increase their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities [4]. - Demand from commercial banks is expected to improve, benefiting from steady deposit growth, a steepening yield curve, and potential loosening of supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules [4]. - Pension funds and mutual funds are projected to maintain stable growth in holdings, driven by asset allocation needs and market preference trends [4]. - Huatai's team believes that the U.S. Treasury market will exhibit structurally differentiated demand characteristics in the second half of 2025, with policy adjustments, exchange rate fluctuations, and asset allocation shifts being key variables [4].

Core Viewpoint - Idorsia Ltd has announced a repurchase offer for its outstanding convertible bonds as part of a broader restructuring strategy aimed at enhancing its financial position and operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Repurchase Offer Details - The repurchase offer targets CHF 200 million convertible bonds maturing in 2025 and CHF 600 million convertible bonds maturing in 2028 [1]. - Approximately 87.5% of the CB 2025 and 90.1% of the CB 2028 bondholders have entered into a lockup agreement to support the restructuring and participate in the repurchase offer [3]. - The main offer period for the repurchase is set to begin on July 10, 2025, and conclude on August 7, 2025, with a minimum acceptance condition of 85% of the total issued nominal value required for the offer to proceed [4]. Group 2: Participation and Documentation - Bondholders can access the repurchase offer documentation and participate through Kroll Issuer Services Ltd, which will also facilitate a new money facility for eligible bondholders [5]. - Detailed instructions and eligibility criteria for participation in both the repurchase offer and the new money facility are available in the repurchase offer documentation [5]. Group 3: Company Overview - Idorsia Ltd aims to challenge established medical paradigms by discovering, developing, and commercializing transformative medicines, positioning itself as a leading biopharmaceutical company [7]. - The company is headquartered near Basel, Switzerland, and has a strong focus on small-molecule drugs, with a promising development pipeline and partnerships to maximize portfolio value [8].

For more on Powell's testimony and how the Middle East conflict uh factors into the Fed's thinking, let's bring in Fed Watch Advisors founder Ben Emmens. Ben, great to see you. Um I first want to ask you about bond yields being at 4.29% on the 10-year and and I'm just wondering because we saw this is a day when the markets rallied.We saw oil come off precipitously. All the risk premium got taken out of the oil market at this point and we didn't have much of a move in the bond market. So at this point is it ...

As stated in paragraph 6 in General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds, the Government Debt Management offered the equivalent of 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction 20. June, at the price of accepted bids. SeriesRIKB 28 1115RIKB 38 0215ISINIS0000028249IS0000037265Additional issuance (nominal)275,000,000102,000,000Settlement date06/25/202506/25/2025Total outstanding (nominal)124,037,301,51931,113,000,000 ...

Here's the question for me. What risks are actually worth managing at the moment. Because for a lot of people, they're being rewarded by just ignoring pretty much everything.It's amazing. John. It reminds us a bit of the talking head song, same as it ever was, just looking back a week.You saw that typical geopolitical risk management narrative playing out with the dollar briefly catching a bid. You saw oil prices obviously higher, gold getting a bid, and all of that has quickly reversed. This is one of the ...