Yeah, I mean members are skipping town after today's session and they'll be home through the holidays and you can bet they'll be hearing from their voters as you say. I mean the polls, the American people are very clear. They tell us in poll after poll after poll and interview after interview after interview that they are not feeling what Donald Trump is describing in this country just full stop that things are too expensive that inflation is bad that groceries are cost too much when you go through the the ...

The market context today is dominated by two big central banks here in Europe, of course, the Riksbank as well. So as we look ahead to those, is there anything that unites them or should we tackle them separately. I think separately, let's take a step back.Also, don't forget, there's the Nordics Bank. Oh, yes. There's four big European ones that we're looking at.I think, you know, Bank of England is, I think, the biggest surprise there. There's been a lot of dovish pricing. You had inflation comin significa ...

Economic Performance - President Trump highlighted a significant reduction in inflation, stating it was the worst in 48 years when he took office, and now it is projected to be at 3.1% [1][4] - The federal deficit has decreased by 19% in the first two months of the fiscal year [1] - Gas prices have dropped by 3% compared to the previous year, and the grocery price index has decreased by about 5% since Trump took office [2] Tax Cuts and Refunds - The largest tax cuts in American history are expected to save families between $11,000 and $20,000 annually, with projections for the largest tax refund season ever [1] - A special "warrior dividend" of $1,776 is being sent to 1,450,000 military service members as a holiday gift [1] Wage Growth and Affordability - Real wage growth is being emphasized, with wages reportedly increasing faster than inflation, leading to better affordability for Americans [5][6] - The messaging around affordability has been improved, focusing on the contrast between real wage growth under Trump and wage losses under Biden [5]

Economic Outlook - Vanguard's economic outlook for 2026 indicates a mixed picture for inflation, with some components decreasing while others, particularly food prices and tariffs, exert upward pressure [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a modest easing bias, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [3] Investment and Job Market - The potential for AI-related investments in the latter half of the year could provide upside risk to the US economy, despite current headwinds [4][5] - The labor market is currently in a holding pattern, influenced by factors such as an increase in retirements and slowed immigration, which has reduced the supply of new entrants [6][8] Inflation Dynamics - Tariffs are a significant factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations that inflation could rise above 2% due to tariff-related uncertainties [10][11] - The focus for 2026 is anticipated to shift more towards growth rather than inflation, suggesting a potential for non-inflationary growth similar to the late 1990s [11][12] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's approach should consider the potential for higher productivity and growth without necessarily increasing rates, as seen in historical contexts [12][13] - A scenario is proposed where higher growth could coexist with a 4% yield on 10-year Treasuries, indicating that the Fed needs to focus on capacity and productivity for future policy decisions [13][14]

Economic Outlook & Inflation - Vanguard expects a mixed CPI picture with some components trending down, but pressures remain due to tariffs and food prices [2] - Tariffs and a less restrictive Fed than perceived could keep inflation above 2% [10] - The focus for 2026 is expected to shift from inflation to growth [11] Labor Market - The US labor market has effectively stalled and is in a holding pattern due to supply and demand factors [5][6] - Acceleration in retirements and slowed immigration have pushed down the break-even rate [7] - Job growth is strong in occupations with high AI exposure [7] - Younger worker job growth is at historical levels, contradicting some narratives [8] Investment & Growth - AI-related investment will be the ultimate factor influencing the US economy, particularly in the back half of the year, posing an upside risk [4][5] - Investment spending and business confidence will determine the risk to the economy in 2026 [9] - Higher productivity and innovation rates could lead to higher growth without higher rates, similar to the late 1990s [12][13] - A 4% 10-year Treasury yield is possible with stable inflation and a 2.5-3% GDP growth due to increased capacity, not just demand [13][14]

Let's get into some of the speech last night. It took place in the diplomatic room and then we'll talk through some of the claims he made afterward. >> 11 months ago, I inherited a mess and I'm fixing it. When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years and some would say in the history of our country, which caused prices to be higher than ever before, making life unaffordable for millions and millions of Americans. Our border was open and because of this our country was being invaded by an army of 2 ...

The Bank of England cut interest rates to the lowest in almost three years in a pre-Christmas boost for UK households, and suggested inflation is cooling enough for it to ease policy further in 2026 https://t.co/hNkvwj1kmy ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has cut its key interest rate for the first time in four months to 3.75% as inflation begins to ease, providing an opportunity to stimulate the stagnant economy [1][3]. Economic Indicators - Consumer price inflation in the UK slowed to 3.2% in the 12 months through November, down from 3.6% the previous month, and below the Bank of England's forecast of 3.4% [2][3]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest since January 2021, indicating a weakening job market with declining job vacancies [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The decision to cut interest rates was made by a narrow vote of 5-4 among policymakers, reflecting a division in focus between combating inflation and supporting economic growth [1][4]. - The inflation rate in the UK remains significantly higher than the Bank of England's target of 2%, with UK consumer prices rising faster than in other regions, such as the Eurozone (2.1%) and the U.S. (3.0%) [5]. Economic Growth Considerations - Lower interest rates are intended to stimulate economic growth by reducing borrowing costs, which can lead to increased consumer spending and business investment, although this may also contribute to higher prices [5][6]. - Central bankers face the challenge of balancing the need to control inflation while not hindering economic growth [6].

We are absolutely setting ourselves up for that at some point over the next couple of years, but it's so hard to know exactly when it's going to happen. And I think we have to be sort when it comes to the stock market, it will always look for a reason to go up, right. It needs a reason to go down, not a reason to go up.But in order for it to go down, you have to have a reason. The two main reasons that the stock market goes down, a rising inflation rate, which is what happened in 2022, right. So if you look ...

This is what the Biden administration allowed to happen. Do you remember when Joe Biden under the Biden administration compared to the Biden last year under Biden 30 to 100% under Biden the worst thing that the Biden administration did. >> Come on, sing it, Willie. You were always >> Come on, sing it.Oh, I love Willie. >> Oh, yeah. Joe Biden >> very much.Living rentree >> in Donald Trump's mind. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. And it is a good morning anytime you can start with Willie.>> Willie Nel ...