2025年11月25日，由中国有色金属工业协会主办、天齐锂业（002466）特邀协办的"2025年第二届中国 国际锂业大会"在四川成都举行。 大会以"锂聚全球，链动未来"为主题，围绕"稳供给、强链条、促创新、谋共赢"四大核心，深入探讨新 形势下如何通过技术创新与全球协作，增强产业链供应链韧性与安全，推动锂电产业迈向高质量、可持 续发展新阶段。 会议当天，来自中国有色金属工业协会、广州期货交易所、国际锂业协会，以及天齐锂业、中国盐湖等 400余名锂电产业人士，共同就碳酸锂供需格局、固态电池的产业化应用等热点话题进行探讨。 2026年供需预期向好 对于过去五年国内锂行业的发展，中国有色金属工业协会会长葛红林指出，"中国锂产业实现了历史性 跨越，从'跟跑'迈入部分领域'领跑'阶段。" 资源勘探方面，在青藏高原、川西地区、华南等地相继发现多个大型、超大型锂矿，中国锂资源储量大 幅提升，跃居全球第二位。 资源开发方面，江西宜春、湖南鸡脚山等锂云母资源开发有序推进，新疆、川西地区锂辉石资源开发全 面启动，形成"盐湖、锂辉石、锂云母"三大资源开发并举的新格局。 产业规模方面，今年1—9月锂盐产量占全球70%以上，支撑动力电 ...

Group 1 - UBS Asset Management indicates that Chinese stock valuations remain attractive, with MSCI China at approximately 13.2 times forward P/E, slightly above the past decade's average, but still below historical highs, suggesting no overheating in the market [1] - Global investors, including long-term funds and hedge funds, are actively participating in Chinese stocks, primarily through ETFs rather than actively managed funds, indicating a "technical repair" phase in the market [1] - UBS expects continued optimism for Asian assets over the next 6-12 months, with MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at about 15 times forward P/E, significantly lower than MSCI Global's 20.5 times, indicating substantial room for capital inflow [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey predicts the S&P 500 index to rise to 7490 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 12% from current levels, driven by a healthy U.S. economy and strong tech performance [2] - The survey indicates a potential for a market pullback in the next three months, with inflation concerns and uncertainty around interest rate cuts posing risks to the optimistic outlook [2] - The Dow Jones is forecasted to end next year at 50,566 points, reflecting an increase of over 7% from its current level [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs suggests that if a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, it could lower their Brent crude oil price forecast by about $5 per barrel, with a current forecast of $56 per barrel for next year [3] Group 4 - Analysts from ING report an increase in implied volatility for the euro against the pound ahead of the UK budget announcement, indicating market concerns despite a recovery in long-term UK government bonds [4] Group 5 - ING analysts state that the German economy is expected to remain stagnant until fiscal stimulus measures take effect, with the latest GDP estimates confirming stagnation due to weak private consumption and net exports [5] - However, they anticipate improvement post-current quarter as the German parliament is expected to approve the 2026 budget, which should support economic activity [5] Group 6 - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts limited upside for the U.S. dollar, with the RMB expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in Q4 [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes a new upward cycle for lithium batteries is starting, driven by energy storage demand and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [7] - Guohai Securities projects a slow bull market for A-shares, with technology remaining a key focus, supported by liquidity from household savings [8]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes two main investment lines: first, the continuous growth in downstream demand and the improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which present opportunities for both fundamentals and valuations, prioritizing leading companies with technological and cost advantages in the industry chain. Second, it highlights the opportunities arising from the industrialization of solid-state batteries, focusing on the equipment sector and high-value solid electrolyte core materials, while continuously monitoring the evolution of new anode and cathode materials [5][39]. Market Overview and Valuation - As of November 21, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 45.98% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 32.79 percentage points. The solid-state battery index has risen by 55.10% during the same period, also surpassing the CSI 300 index [14][17]. - The overall PE (TTM) of the lithium battery sector is approximately 29 times, placing the sector's valuation at the 48.83% historical percentile over the past five years [17] Global Lithium Battery Demand - Global lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 1545.1 GWh in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. In the first nine months of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 1590.24 GWh, marking a 49.13% increase year-on-year [20][22]. - The demand for lithium batteries is driven by both power batteries and energy storage batteries, with energy storage batteries experiencing higher growth rates [23]. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Growth - In China, NEV sales are expected to maintain growth, with a penetration rate surpassing 50%. From January to October 2025, cumulative NEV sales reached 12.943 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [27][30]. - The report anticipates that NEV sales in China will continue to grow rapidly in 2026, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and technological advancements [28][48]. Energy Storage Market Dynamics - The global energy storage battery demand is expected to maintain high growth, with a cumulative shipment of 428 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [60]. - In China, energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 580 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 70% [66]. Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a turning point, with significant growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, reversing the downward trend of the previous two years [77][81]. - The report indicates that the overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow by 30% in 2026, while supply growth in the materials sector is anticipated to lag behind demand growth, leading to potential supply-demand tightness in various segments of the industry chain [95]. Solid-State Battery Industrialization - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with a diverse range of application scenarios. Solid-state batteries are expected to be a core technology direction for the next generation of lithium batteries due to their high energy density and safety advantages [97]. - Major global automotive manufacturers have announced timelines for the deployment of solid-state batteries, with many planning to introduce them around 2027 [98].

Group 1 - GAC Group's chairman, Feng Xingya, announced the completion of the pilot production line for all-solid-state batteries, achieving conditions for batch manufacturing of over 60Ah automotive-grade batteries, marking a significant step towards small-scale vehicle integration [2] - The pilot production line serves as a critical test for verifying process stability, yield control, and cost modeling, determining whether the technology can transition from theoretical concepts to practical applications [2] - Despite the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50%, consumer safety concerns remain the largest apprehension, with all-solid-state batteries offering superior safety by effectively suppressing lithium dendrite growth [2] Group 2 - The industry is currently characterized by a "semi-solid-state first, all-solid-state tackling" development pattern, with significant acceleration in solid-state battery industrialization since 2022 [3] - Chinese companies like Weilan New Energy and Ganfeng Lithium have achieved mass production of semi-solid-state batteries, indicating the economic viability of this technology in 2023 [3] - All-solid-state batteries are recognized as the next-generation battery technology with disruptive advantages, seen as the ultimate solution to electric vehicle range and safety anxieties, with over 450GWh of planned domestic capacity in the past four years [3] Group 3 - The race for all-solid-state battery mass production is nearing its countdown, with the focus not solely on who releases first, but on who can make consumers adopt the new technology without additional costs [5] - In the highly competitive new energy sector, technological leadership is crucial, but lacking technology is not an option [5]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a maximum intraday price increase of 1.43%, closing up 1.04% as of the report [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery, fluorine chemical, and phosphate chemical sectors have shown significant gains, with companies like Duofluoride rising over 7% and Tianci Materials increasing over 4% [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, driven by recent developments and investments in advanced materials and technologies [3][4] Group 2 - Citic Securities anticipates an improvement in the supply-demand structure of the lithium battery industry by 2026, with accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries creating investment opportunities across various segments [3] - The current valuation of the chemical sector is considered attractive, with the chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.26, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [3] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a new round of supply-side reforms, enhancing the market share of leading companies through better management and energy control [3][4] Group 3 - Dongguan Securities highlights the government's focus on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the chemical sector, supported by various policies aimed at upgrading key industries [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended as an efficient way to gain exposure to the chemical sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in the new materials and fine chemicals sectors as part of the investment strategy [4]

中信证券认为，展望2026年，锂电行业整体供需结构有望进一步改善。 需求端，受益电动化渗透率进一步提升叠加单车带电量的显著增长，全球动力电池需求有望保持稳定增 长；电池成本下降、收益模式丰富、融资成本下降等因素推动储能装机经济性显著提升，全球储能迎来 国内外需求共振向上的发展阶段。 截至2025年11月25日午间收盘，电池龙头ETF(159767)上涨2.08%，成交1505.13万元。跟踪指数国证新 能源车电池指数强势上涨1.95%，成分股中材科技涨停，星源材质上涨4.38%，中伟股份上涨4.06%，杉 杉股份（维权），华友钴业等个股跟涨。 消息面上，国内已建成首条大容量全固态电池产线，目前正在小批量测试生产。生产线有了技术突破， 下一步就是产业化承接落地。日前，广汽集团董事长在2025广州车展上宣布，广汽集团于广州番禺建设 的全固态电池中试产线已正式建成并投产。相关负责人表示，当前开发的全固态电池能量密度较现有电 池提升近一倍，可使500公里以上续航车型提升至1000公里以上。计划2026年开展小批量装车试验， 2027年至2030年间逐步实现批量生产。 中信建投证券表示，坚定看好储能需求向好趋势，短期扰 ...

Core Insights - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle battery capacity and the continuous expansion of new scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The European market is anticipated to accelerate recovery in demand with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship in the industry chain is expected to improve further, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [2] Group 1: Market Trends - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is benefiting from increased electric vehicle battery capacity and the expansion of new applications, while the European market is set to recover due to the new car cycle [1] - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand anticipated to exceed expectations by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly, with leading manufacturers nearly at full production capacity, leading to price increases in energy storage cells and other components [2] - Capital expenditures in the battery sector are expected to remain high, but overall growth will align with demand, while new capacity in the materials sector is limited, potentially leading to further increases in utilization rates [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industrialization of all-solid-state sulfide batteries is entering the pilot testing phase in 2025, with semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [3] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of all-solid-state sulfide batteries are expected, with advancements in process routes and material systems [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Anticipating energy storage demand to exceed expectations, driving a reversal trend in the sector, with key recommendations in lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [4] 2. Emphasizing new technologies as high-growth investment directions, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries and their supply chains [4] 3. Looking at the recovery of charging station construction under policy support, with new scenarios potentially leading to value reassessment [4]

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group has established China's first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line, capable of mass production of automotive-grade products with over 60Ah capacity, significantly enhancing energy density and extending vehicle range [1][5][10] Group 1: Company Developments - GAC Group's new all-solid-state battery has nearly double the energy density compared to existing products, enabling vehicles with a range of over 1000 kilometers [1][7][10] - The production line has entered small-batch testing and is expected to conduct small-scale vehicle trials by 2026, with mass production planned between 2027 and 2030 [4][5] Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, GAC Group's A-shares hit the daily limit, while H-shares rose over 12%, indicating strong market confidence [1] - The solid-state battery sector has seen significant activity, with companies like Gaole Shares and Guosheng Technology reaching their daily limits, and Liyuanheng and Funeng Technology also experiencing notable gains [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The all-solid-state battery technology is expected to drive the development of related industries, including raw material supply, battery manufacturing, and recycling, contributing to a more complete industrial ecosystem [8][10] - The solid-state battery market is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach 18GWh by 2027 and 30GWh by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 44% from 2024 to 2028 [11] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has prioritized solid-state batteries in its development plans, with multiple departments issuing guidelines to support the industry [13] - By 2030, global shipments of solid-state batteries are expected to exceed 700GWh, with China aiming to catch up in the solid-state battery sector [13][14]

中信证券研报表示，展望2026年，锂电行业整体供需结构有望进一步改善。需求端，受益电动化渗透率 进一步提升叠加单车带电量的显著增长，全球动力电池需求有望保持稳定增长；电池成本下降、收益模 式丰富、融资成本下降等因素推动储能装机经济性显著提升，全球储能迎来国内外需求共振向上的发展 阶段。供给端，电池和中游材料环节资本开支增速触底信号明确，新增扩产仍集中在少数重点企业，且 聚焦在高端品及海外产能上，预计2026年行业供需有望进一步改善；受益供需结构改善，产业链价格企 稳回升，高端产品有望攫取更高的技术溢价。此外，固态电池产业化加速，有望带来电池、材料、设备 环节的投资机会。重点关注技术差异化程度更高、成本控制能力更强的供应链优质头部企业。 ...

Core Insights - The domestic first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line has been established, currently undergoing small-scale testing production, marking a significant milestone in the all-solid-state battery technology [1] - The all-solid-state battery is recognized as the "holy grail of next-generation battery technology," offering higher energy density, inherent safety, longer lifespan, and wider temperature range compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [2] - Multiple companies are advancing their solid-state battery projects, with plans for small-scale vehicle integration and mass production set for 2027 [4] Industry Developments - The all-solid-state battery technology is included in the national strategic development plan, indicating its importance for future energy storage solutions [2] - Major players like CATL and Changan Automobile are targeting 2027 for mass production, with significant improvements in battery safety and energy density [2] - The industry is expected to see a peak in pilot production lines in 2026, with small-scale commercialization anticipated by 2027 [3] Company Progress - GAC Group has completed the first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line, capable of producing batteries with an energy density nearly double that of current batteries [1] - SAIC Group and Penghui Energy have also reported advancements in their solid-state battery production lines, with plans for sample production and vehicle testing in the near future [4] - Companies are focusing on overcoming technical bottlenecks related to manufacturing costs, cycle life, and environmental adaptability to facilitate the industrial application of solid-state batteries [4]