Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The New York Fed President's comments significantly influenced market expectations, with Fed futures nearly doubling after his strong support for a 25 basis point cut in December [2][3] - There is speculation that dissenting votes may arise, with some presidents likely opposing any cuts, while others may support a pause in policy changes until more data is available [4][8] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% and payroll employment growth at 119,000, raising concerns about potential further deterioration [6][7] - Inflation remains a critical issue, currently at 3%, which affects affordability and complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [7][9] Economic Indicators and Risks - The Fed's current stance is influenced by a combination of weak labor data and elevated inflation, leading to discussions about the need for potential policy adjustments [8][14] - There are concerns about the impact of labor supply shocks and the slow growth of the labor force due to immigration policies, which could affect payroll employment growth [11][12]

Company Overview - United Rentals, Inc. (URI) has a market cap of $50.9 billion and operates as a leading equipment rental company across the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, providing a wide range of construction and industrial equipment rentals, sales, and related services [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, URI shares have declined by 5.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has increased by 11%. However, on a year-to-date basis, URI shares have risen by 14.4%, surpassing the S&P 500's gain of 12.3% [2] - URI shares have also underperformed compared to the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), which returned 4.9% over the same period [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, United Rentals reported revenue of $4.23 billion, exceeding expectations, but shares fell by 7.8% the following day due to adjusted EPS of $11.70 missing forecasts. Investor sentiment has been negatively impacted by inflation, high interest rates, and rising operating costs, which have squeezed margins and reduced profitability [4] Earnings Forecast - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts predict a slight decrease in adjusted EPS to $43.13. United Rentals has a mixed earnings surprise history, having topped consensus estimates in one of the last four quarters while missing in three [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 22 analysts covering URI, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of 12 "Strong Buy" ratings, two "Moderate Buys," seven "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5] - The current analyst sentiment is more bullish than three months ago, with nine "Strong Buy" ratings. Argus Research analyst Kristina Ruggeri has raised the price target to $945 while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The mean price target of $991.32 indicates a 23.9% premium to current price levels, while the highest price target of $1,169 suggests a potential upside of 46.1% [6]

♦️ Donald Trump plays down tensions with prominent MAGA Republicans.♦️ Zohran Mamdani says he is “establishing a productive relationship” with the president.♦️ The rise in inflation had “nothing to do with tariffs”, treasury secretary insists.Keep up with US politics https://t.co/ba6UUGssU0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, citing a weak labor market and manageable inflation as key factors [1][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of continued weakness, with the latest jobs report indicating only 119,000 jobs added in September, which is expected to be revised down by approximately 50,000 to 60,000 [6][7]. - Inflation is not perceived as a significant concern moving forward, with expectations that it will begin to decline. Current inflation is estimated to be around 2.4% to 2.5% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The approach to monetary policy may become more cautious and data-dependent starting in January, as a significant amount of economic data will be released [5][6]. - Waller does not foresee a turnaround in the labor market in the next 6 to 8 weeks, indicating a continued focus on labor market conditions in future policy decisions [6][8]. Communication and Transparency - Waller emphasizes the importance of transparency and accountability in monetary policy, suggesting that press conferences after every meeting should continue to communicate decisions to the public and financial markets [12][13].

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, advocating for a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting due to concerns over a weak labor market [2][9] - Waller estimates ex-tariff inflation to be around 2.4% or 2.5%, suggesting that inflation is not a major problem given the weak labor market [3][9] - A more meeting-by-meeting approach is expected by January, with Waller acknowledging the challenges posed by new data influencing future rate decisions [3] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine's delegation for peace plan talks is returning from Geneva, following discussions between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan regarding a potential peace plan [4][9] - Erdogan has expressed readiness to mediate in the conflict, indicating broader international engagement on the issue [5] US Agriculture Sector - US Agriculture Secretary Rollins announces that aid for farmers is expected to be unveiled in the week following Thanksgiving, with a formal announcement anticipated soon [6] - China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, which could significantly boost US agricultural exports and farmer incomes [7][9] Market Movements - Spot gold prices have surged past the $4,080/oz mark, climbing 0.36% intraday, reflecting investor uncertainty or a flight to safety [10][9] - In US pre-market trading, major indices show gains, with tech giants like Google and Tesla leading the pack with increases of 3.5% and 2.1% respectively [11][9] Housing Market Imbalance - The US housing market experienced a significant imbalance in October, with home sellers exceeding buyers by 37%, marking the widest gap recorded since 2013 [13][9] - A report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that tariffs contribute to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand, leading to higher unemployment [14]

An executive order signed by President Trump uh removing tariffs on Brazilian coffee and beef is expected to ease food costs for Americans. Joining us now, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins came to New York. >> I did.Great to be here. You're all on set. It's nice to have you here.>> Yeah, thank you. >> Affordability. I saw uh Secretary Bess and I kind of liked it.Uh we hope to see him soon too. But he said he was asked about some specific um item being up I don't know 8% or something like that. And I thi ...

Interest Rate Forecasts - Brazil economists cut their 2026 year-end interest rate forecasts for the first time since September [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is gradually coming down in Brazil [1] - The central bank maintains a hawkish stance on monetary policy [1]

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated more than expected in early November after the central bank reiterated concerns of persistent price increases https://t.co/eGGcNFNoAP ...

And joining us now, Julian Emanuel, chief equity uh derivatives and quantitative strategist uh at Evercore. Good to have you on, uh Julian, given uh what we've seen in in not just the stock market, but on everyone's lips and talking about stocks, even people like you talk about Bitcoin, which is weird. That's that's different than a couple of years ago where it wasn't really it wasn't ready for prime time crypto.Not quite. Now uh people look at it as as an actual asset class and try to glean things from uh ...

So, I mean, it's a holiday shorten week. Uh, generally a lot less volume. Two reports coming out.They're delayed and a little bit backwardlookings. One hits inflation for producers. The other one retail sales.Either one of those market movers. Any other one of those that you really need to pay attention to this week. >> We think the retail sales numbers can be particularly important on the backs of what we heard last week out of Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, really to get a better sense of what's going on wi ...