Before when we were bringing you on uh we were talking to you about some of that delayed data that's coming up later today. The October November jobs report. The combination of that we're looking at potentially the estimate at least 50,000 jobs added unemployment ticking up to 4 and a.5% highest level since October of 2021.I want to ask you does that matter to the markets. Does it matter to the Fed when we know there's going to be a lot of twist and turns before that next Fed meeting. Well, there'll definit ...

Economic Indicators - The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -3.9 in December, weaker than the expected 10.0 [3] - Economists forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls for November will be 51K, with October payroll data expected to show substantial losses in government jobs [6] - U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for November are expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year, compared to +0.2% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year in September [8] - Retail sales for October are anticipated to rise by +0.1% month-over-month, while core retail sales are expected to increase by +0.2% month-over-month [9] - The December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.0, and the S&P Global Services PMI is expected to be 54.0 [10] Stock Market Movements - Wall Street's main stock indexes ended in the red, with ServiceNow (NOW) plunging over -11% after news of a potential acquisition for $7 billion [4] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin's price dropped more than -4%, with Riot Platforms (RIOT) down over -10% and Strategy (MSTR) down more than -8% [4] - iRobot (IRBT) plummeted over -72% after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [4] - KLA Corp. (KLAC) rose more than +2% after being upgraded to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,500 [4] Central Bank Insights - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the central bank's policy stance is overly restrictive for the economy, citing a benign inflation outlook [2] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for next year following a recent rate cut [2] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins supported the recent rate cut, noting that the balance of risks had shifted [2] European Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.14%, with defense stocks slipping due to progress in Ukraine peace talks [11] - Eurozone business activity growth slowed more than anticipated in December, with manufacturing contraction deepening [11] - The German December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 45.8, stronger than expectations of 38.4 [13] Asian Market Trends - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.11%, with economic indicators showing weakened momentum in November [15] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower, with financial and energy stocks leading the declines [16] - The Japanese December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 49.7, stronger than expectations of 49.0 [18]

Market Overview - Futures indicate a negative trading day as investors continue to sell AI stocks, with a focus on the upcoming US jobs report [2][20] - European defense stocks are declining as optimism grows regarding a potential peace deal in Ukraine, although territorial issues remain unresolved [2][58] UK Labor Market - The UK ILO jobless rate has risen to 5.1%, with a decrease of 38,000 in payrolled employment from October to November [4][5] - Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 3.9% year-on-year, while total average weekly earnings rose by 4.6%, slightly above expectations [7][9] AI and Technology Sector - The tech-heavy NASDAQ has seen a decline of approximately 0.6%, marking the third consecutive negative session for US tech stocks [12] - AI stocks have experienced significant volatility, with some major players down by about 46%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI trade [32][34] Economic Outlook - Analysts express mixed views on the S&P 500, with Bank of America predicting a modest increase to 7,100, while Oppenheimer forecasts a rise to 8,100 [17] - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates remains cautious, with expectations of a slow rate-cutting cycle as inflation stabilizes [30][29] Defense Industry - European defense stocks are experiencing a pullback as markets react to potential peace talks in Ukraine, with companies like Raytheon and Hensoldt seeing declines [58][60] - Despite the current optimism, analysts suggest that the long-term demand for defense capabilities will persist, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions [68]

Very good morning to you. So we're busy waiting for nonfarm payrolls. One and a half non-farm payrolls.Looking at us features a little bit weaker, weighing on sentiment for tech here in Europe as well. What do you make of the price action heading into the yet important data points. It's been very disappointing price action and I think this kind of choppy price action with a negative bent is going to be the dynamic for the festive period.I don't think it's so much about the jobs data. I think the job today i ...

Very good morning to you. So we're busy waiting for nonfarm payrolls. One and a half non-farm payrolls.Looking at us features a little bit weaker, weighing on sentiment for tech here in Europe as well. What do you make of the price action heading into the yet important data points. It's been very disappointing price action and I think this kind of choppy price action with a negative bent is going to be the dynamic for the festive period.I don't think it's so much about the jobs data. I think the job today i ...

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors anticipated key economic data releases, including the November nonfarm payrolls report, unemployment figures, and October retail sales [1][2] Economic Indicators - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.168%, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased to 3.497%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield slid to 4.846% [1] - November nonfarm payrolls are projected to be 50,000, a significant drop from 119,000 in October [2] - The unemployment rate for November is expected to remain steady at 4.4% [3] - October retail sales are forecasted to increase by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in September [3] - The November Consumer Price Index report is anticipated to show a year-over-year inflation rise to 3.1% [3]

Core Insights - American consumers are experiencing economic relief due to a significant drop in fuel costs and the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest rate cut [1][4] Fuel Prices - The national average price for gasoline has decreased to $2.85 per gallon, the lowest level since March 12, 2021 [2] - This decline is resulting in weekly savings of nearly $400 million compared to the same time last year, attributed to increased refinery output and concerns about slowing global demand in China and Europe [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% on December 10, marking the third consecutive reduction aimed at supporting a cooling labor market [4] - Following the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a "wait and see" approach, leading to a 75.6% market expectation that the Fed will pause rate cuts early next year [5] Economic Outlook - The combination of lower borrowing costs and energy prices is expected to provide a unique tailwind for the economy heading into 2026, with lower oil prices helping to reduce headline inflation and increase disposable income for consumers [6] Market Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) closed lower, with SPY down 0.15% at $680.73 and QQQ down 0.50% at $610.54 [7]

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Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing a decline at the start of a week filled with economic reports that could influence interest rates and stock prices, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 137 points or 0.3% [1] - Technology stocks, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, are weighing heavily on the market following significant fluctuations last week [2] Company Performance - Nvidia, a key player in the AI boom, saw its stock rise 1.7%, helping to cushion losses in the S&P 500 after a 4.1% drop last week [2] - Oracle's stock fell another 1.9% following a 12.7% decline last week, marking its worst performance in over seven years [3] - Broadcom's stock decreased by 5.1% [3] Industry Insights - Concerns are growing in the AI sector regarding whether the substantial investments in chips and data centers will yield sufficient profits and productivity [4] - The upcoming economic reports, particularly the jobs report and inflation data, are critical as they will inform the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][6] Economic Indicators - Economists anticipate that the jobs report for November will show an addition of 40,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to be at 4.4%, near its highest level since 2021 [5][9] - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, needing to balance the impacts of a slowing job market and high inflation [6][7] Market Reactions - There is a prevailing hope on Wall Street for a slight weakening in the job market to prompt the Fed to lower interest rates without triggering a recession [7] - Treasury yields have eased, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling to 4.18% from 4.19% [10] Bankruptcy News - iRobot's shares plummeted 72.6% after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, indicating potential total loss for stockholders [11] Global Market Trends - Internationally, indexes in Europe rose while Asian markets faced declines, with Hong Kong and Shanghai indexes falling 1.3% and 0.6% respectively due to weak investment signals in China [12]

Core Insights - The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) provide direct exposure to precious metals, with differences in historical risk, recent returns, and ongoing costs [1][2] Cost & Size Comparison - IAU has an expense ratio of 0.25%, while SLV's is 0.50%, making IAU more affordable for long-term investors [3][4] - As of December 12, 2025, IAU's one-year return is 60.2%, compared to SLV's 98.9% [3] - IAU has assets under management (AUM) of $68.3 billion, while SLV has $33.4 billion [3] Performance & Risk Metrics - Over five years, IAU's maximum drawdown is -21.88%, while SLV's is -38.79% [5] - A $1,000 investment in IAU would grow to $2,322 over five years, while the same investment in SLV would grow to $2,532 [5] Fund Structure - Both IAU and SLV aim to mirror the prices of gold and silver, respectively, and do not hold traditional equities or distribute dividends [6][7] - SLV holds 100% exposure to real estate as classified in sector data, reflecting the underlying commodity rather than traditional property holdings [6] - IAU also shows 100% real estate sector exposure due to commodity classification [7] Market Context - Investors are increasingly turning to metal ETFs like IAU and SLV amid concerns about inflation and rising sovereign debt globally [8][13] - Both ETFs have outperformed the S&P 500's total return, with SLV significantly exceeding IAU's performance [10][13] Volatility Considerations - Silver is traditionally more volatile than gold, which can be advantageous in a bull market, as seen in the last five years [11]