So, I mean, it's a holiday shorten week. Uh, generally a lot less volume. Two reports coming out.They're delayed and a little bit backwardlookings. One hits inflation for producers. The other one retail sales.Either one of those market movers. Any other one of those that you really need to pay attention to this week. >> We think the retail sales numbers can be particularly important on the backs of what we heard last week out of Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, really to get a better sense of what's going on wi ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is facing a critical week as three delayed US economic reports are set to be released, which could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influence crypto markets [1] - The convergence of these economic indicators is significant due to the current lack of up-to-date consumer spending and inflation metrics [4] Economic Reports Overview - The US economic reports include September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for November 25, followed by initial jobless claims data on November 26 [3] - The previous retail sales report indicated a strong 0.6% monthly gain, while the PPI fell by 0.1% in August, with a year-over-year core PPI of 2.8% [4] Retail Sales Expectations - The consensus for September retail sales predicts a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with any miss below this mark potentially signaling economic cooling and fostering dovish sentiment among Federal Reserve policymakers [5] - Weaker consumer spending is often associated with rising speculation about rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and support crypto prices [5] PPI Data Significance - The PPI release is crucial as it is the last significant inflation data before the October Personal Consumption Expenditures report [6] - Markets currently price in a 67.3% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which may shift based on new data [7] Inflation Impact on Market Expectations - A higher-than-expected PPI, especially in core measures excluding food and energy, could reduce December cut odds below 60%, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on crypto [8] - September's consensus calls for a 0.3% monthly PPI increase, with any number significantly above this challenging the view of moderating price pressures [9]

Core Insights - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, warns that the U.S. economy is in a "serious affordability crisis" due to specific policy choices impacting inflation [1][5] - Consumer price inflation is currently around 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, attributed to recent interventions rather than an economic cycle [2][4] - Zandi highlights that aggressive tariffs and restrictive immigration policies are contributing to persistent inflation, which was previously on a downward trajectory [3][4] Economic Impact - The current economic baseline shows inflation spiking in 2025 and remaining elevated, contrasting with a scenario without tariffs where inflation would dip toward the Fed's target by 2026 [4] - Zandi predicts "even higher inflation dead-ahead," indicating a grim outlook for American consumers, especially low- and middle-income households [4][5] - The burden of inflation and economic shifts disproportionately affects lower-income households facing high prices for necessities [5] Market Response - Despite the negative economic outlook, futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones indices were trading higher, reflecting a positive market sentiment [6] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) both closed higher, with SPY up 1.00% and QQQ up 0.75% [7]

Am I going to have another busy week like last week. Can I can I just look forward to Turkey or is it going to be bumpy. We're still very much in a choppy trading environment.Because the headline we talk a lot about the Santa rally into year end, then people get optimistic. But I think what's less appreciated is that there's also a seasonal component to volatility. So you see that it generally tends to decline into the Christmas period and into the summer.Now in theory, that's a positive. I think the issue ...

Market Environment - The current trading environment is described as choppy, with volatility expected to decline into the Christmas period but not significantly until mid-December [1][2] - An excess of data is being released, and the upcoming December Fed meeting is a focal point, with uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][4] Federal Reserve Impact - The sustainability of the recent market rally is closely tied to the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly whether they will cut rates in December [4][5] - If the Fed does not cut rates, it could negatively impact equities towards the year-end, but long-term cuts could be beneficial for the market [5][6] Inflation Concerns - The nature of inflation is crucial for equity markets; growth-driven inflation is seen as positive, while inflation without growth raises concerns [6][7] UK Budget Significance - The UK budget is highlighted as a significant event for the week, with a mix of pessimism and optimism in the market [7][8] - Previous market tests before the budget release may mitigate concerns about gilt volatility affecting broader market volatility [9]

Restaurants and bars in the Boat Quay district in Singapore, on Wednesday, May 17, 2023.Singapore's inflation rate rose for a second straight month, year on year, with price growth in October scaling a near 1-year high and topping analysts' expectations. After reaching a 4-year low in August, consumer prices rose 1.2% — highest since August 2024 — compared with the average 0.9% estimated by economists polled by Reuters and the 0.7% rise in September.Core inflation in the city-state — which strips out prices ...

Core Insights - Pensions are increasingly unpopular among employers due to their high and indefinite costs, despite being valued for their reliability by retirees [2][3] - Employers typically offer two options for pension payouts: a lump sum distribution or monthly payments for life [8][23] Group 1: Pension Structure and Options - A lump sum distribution allows employees to receive a single payout at retirement, making it a more manageable expense for employers [1] - Pensions, also known as "defined benefit retirement plans," promise certain benefits in retirement, contrasting with "defined contribution retirement plans" [6] - Monthly payments are often preferred for their reliability, while lump sums may offer higher long-term returns depending on investment management [10][12] Group 2: Financial Considerations - The decision between a lump sum and monthly payments depends on various factors, including investment returns and personal financial situations [9][23] - To match a fixed monthly payment of $1,200 over an average life expectancy, an individual would need to invest a lump sum of $150,000 at a 7.03% return [13] - A reliable return of around 8% is necessary for the lump sum to be more valuable than monthly payments, with potential higher returns from equity investments [14] Group 3: Inflation and Risk - Inflation can impact the value of pension payments, with some pensions offering cost-of-living adjustments [17] - If a pension is not indexed for inflation, the fixed monthly payment may expose retirees to inflation risks, while a lump sum could allow for inflation-indexed growth [21] - Managing investment volatility is crucial for retirees, as relying on lump sums for income can be riskier during market downturns [15][20]

⚡️ INSIGHT: Pension funds are evaluating Bitcoin as a store of value amid rising inflation and geopolitical tension.Can Bitcoin truly meet institutional standards for long-term preservation? https://t.co/aDp6ZVhrZc ...

Inflation Trends - Singapore's key inflation gauge accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in October [1] - Strong economic momentum may be adding to price pressures [1]

⚡️ Key Economic Events This Week:Tuesday - September PPI Inflation data, September Retail Sales data, November Consumer Confidence data, October Pending Home Sales dataWednesday - US Q3 2025 GDP data, September Durable Goods Orders data, September PCE Inflation data, September New Home Sales dataThursday - US Markets Closed for ThanksgivingWhat's the biggest data point you're watching? ...