Ben, catch us up on on whether we're moving forward with a shutdown, Ben, and and what we need to know. Yeah. Yeah, Josh, the short answer to your question of whether we're moving forward appears to be no.We've had a day here in Washington that's a whole lot of name calling and very little apparent progress with a shutdown now about 9 hours away. As John Thun, the Senate Majority Leader, said just about an hour ago, there's nothing left to negotiate from his perspective there. That's because the Senate plan ...

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Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its view of global equities due to strong earnings and a Fed easing cycle [1] - The market rally has been led by fundamentals and earnings recovery [4] - BIMO initially published a bull case target of 7,000 in November 2024 [5] - BIMO anticipates another 8% to 10% earnings growth into next year [6] - The average return is like 56% when a market is up 15% to 20% in the first nine months of the year, going back to 1950 [10] Investment Strategy - BIMO raised its target back to 7,000 as a bull case, seeing more reward than risk in buying stocks at record highs [7] - BIMO believes that 7,000 by year-end could be too low and the market could go higher [8] - The yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, benefiting financials and driving earnings growth [14] - BIMO expects stocks to potentially rise by high single digits to low double digits, near the historical average of 10% to 12%, especially with dividends [16] Economic Factors - Goldilocks is defined as steady interest rates, positive earnings growth, and positive GDP growth [11] - The Fed needs to build credibility, especially considering tensions with the White House and inflation [22] - BIMO anticipates at least two more rate cuts before the end of the year [23]

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed tracker indicates a GDP growth rate of approximately 3.9% for Q3, following a 3.8% growth in Q2, suggesting a strong economic performance [2] - Weekly jobless claims decreased to 218,000, with a four-week moving average of about 230,000, indicating a healthy labor market [2][16] - Durable goods orders rose by 5.4% year-over-year, driven by Boeing, while new home sales increased by 20% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year, reflecting robust consumer activity [3] Market Outlook - The earnings outlook for the next quarter is positive, with expectations of broad-based growth across various sectors, including housing and financials [4][6] - Financials are expected to perform well, with Morgan Stanley raising targets for large-cap banks due to favorable numbers [7] - The industrial sector and data center investments are anticipated to continue thriving, supported by strong visibility [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to diversify beyond technology stocks, with a focus on sectors like housing and autos, which may benefit from lower interest rates [6][7] - Capital One is highlighted as a favorable investment due to its recent acquisition of Discover Financial, which enhances its scalable payments network [9] - Cybersecurity is identified as a growing sector, with potential for consolidation among the 4,000 companies in the field, driven by increasing demand for AI-related security solutions [11][12] Consumer Behavior - The consumer remains resilient, supported by job stability and wage growth of about 5%, despite inflationary pressures [18] - A significant amount of capital, approximately $8 trillion, is currently in money markets, which may shift into equities as interest rates decline [14][15] Risks and Concerns - The labor market is closely monitored, with a warning threshold set at 250,000 to 260,000 weekly jobless claims, as a significant increase could signal economic trouble [16][17] - Potential government shutdowns are not seen as a major concern, with expectations that any issues will be resolved quickly [19][20]

Economic Outlook - The Atlanta Fed tracker estimates Q3 GDP growth at approximately 39%, following a 38% growth in Q2 [2] - New home sales experienced a significant increase, rising 20% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year [3] - The market anticipates potential sideways movement in the short term, but expects a positive earnings outlook for the next quarter and Q4 overall [4] - The economy could slow to 25%, but the earnings picture will still be good [21] Labor Market Analysis - Weekly jobless claims are a key indicator, with current levels around 230000 per week based on the four-week moving average, considered healthy [2] - An increase in weekly jobless claims to approximately 250000-260000 would raise concerns, while recession levels are typically around 350000-375000 [17] - Wage growth is currently around 5%, supporting consumer spending [18] Investment Strategies - The market suggests owning stocks beyond the tech sector, highlighting housing and autos as potential recovery areas with lower interest rates [6][7] - Financials, particularly large-cap banks, are expected to perform well, with Morgan Stanley raising targets due to strong numbers and relatively cheap valuations [7] - The industrial sector and data center investments are expected to continue performing well with good visibility [8] - Cyber security is in early stages and driven by AI, consolidation is expected in the sector [11][12] Company Specific Recommendations - Capital One is favored due to its acquisition of Discover Financial, creating a scalable payments network, with potential earnings power of $26 per share and excess capital for shareholder returns [9][10] - CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are recommended in the cyber security sector, despite CrowdStrike's higher price-to-sales ratio of 27 times, while Palo Alto is cheaper at 14 times [13] Monetary Policy Impact - The anticipated lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve is expected to shift money from money market accounts into investment opportunities [14] - Approximately $75 trillion is currently held in money market accounts, with a portion expected to seek better yields as rates decrease [15] Risk Factors - The labor market is the primary concern, with weekly jobless claims being a key indicator to watch for potential economic softening [16] - A government shutdown is not considered a major concern, with expectations of a short-lived impact and potential buying opportunities [19][20]

Market Sentiment & Valuation - The market is debating whether an AI-fueled bubble exists, with some valuations appearing stretched due to hype and speculation [1] - Some argue the rally is justified by solid earnings and upbeat guidance from companies, suggesting fair valuations [2] - Macro tailwinds, such as potential Federal Reserve easing and cooling inflation, are providing a boost to stocks [3] Potential Risks & Red Flags - Concerns exist that the AI rally may be outpacing actual earnings, with some unprofitable tech companies experiencing significant gains [3] - The rally remains concentrated in a few mega-cap tech companies, indicating limited broader market participation [4] - Strategists are watching for classic signs of a bubble, where promise outweighs the ability to deliver [3][4]

I want to bring in another voice to this discussion right now. That's Beimo's Brian Bellski. Speaking of runway, he's raising his S&P 500 target to 7,000 from a prior 6700.He joins us on the phone right now. Brian, you've been listening to the discussion that we've been having over here about whether it's 1999 or 1997, whether Nvidia at 30 to 31 times forward earnings is bubbleicious or not. what exactly is your view in raising the S&P 500 target.I think I kind of know at this point. >> Thanks, Tom, and tha ...

Let's turn to the broader market action this morning. Joining us here at Post 9 is DWS Group America's CIO David Biano. Welcome, David.It's good to have you. And today we we've got a nice broad rally, although NASDAQ is actually lagging for a change. Do you buy into the the broadening trend that this rally continues and it doesn't have to be led by big tech.It's a Friday morning and and not too bad. It's been a bit of a tough week though for those arguing for the the broadening of uh the equity market. Uh t ...

What’s wild is how some of these Earnings mention markets are shaping g up…Costco’s mention market on Kalshi was almost a 100% sweep for YES on every wordThe only word not said during it…Dividend. https://t.co/1KsY1WI7Hd ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing caution, with the S&P 500 on track for its longest losing streak in a month after a period of record highs [2][3] - The Dow is down approximately 0.4%, and the S&P 500 is closing around 6605, down 33 points or 0.5% [6][7] - The Nasdaq composite and NASDAQ 100 are down by similar amounts, while the Russell 2000 is down about 1% [7] Company Performance - Intel shares rose nearly 9% today, making it the top gainer in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, following an upgrade to neutral from sell by Seaport Global [13][14] - Lithium Americas also saw significant gains, up about 23% after a 96% gain the previous day [14] - CarMax was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down 20% due to weaker-than-expected results and challenges in the used car market [17][18] - Tesla shares fell 4.4%, with European sales down 22% last month, while overall European car sales rose 4.7% [19][20] Corporate Actions - Starbucks is closing about 1% of its stores in the U.S. and Canada, cutting 900 jobs as part of a turnaround plan, but the market reaction has been negative with the stock down [25][26] - The company has 360,000 employees globally, making the job cuts a small percentage of its workforce [28] Economic Indicators - Stronger economic data is impacting market sentiment, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's ability to continue cutting rates [23]