By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's ...

Market Overview - The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, along with the ongoing US government shutdown and concerns about credit quality, has led to increased demand for precious metals, with gold and silver reaching all-time highs before experiencing a decline due to easing trade tensions and stabilization in bank stocks [1] - Stock indexes saw support as trade tensions eased, with President Trump stating that current tariffs on China are "not sustainable" and expressing intentions to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping [3] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.53%, the Dow Jones closed up +0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 closed up +0.65% on Friday [5] Earnings Reports - The Q3 earnings season is underway, with 78% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts. However, Q3 profits are expected to rise by only +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [7] - American Express reported Q3 EPS of $4.14, exceeding the consensus of $3.99, leading to a +7% increase in its stock [15] - Truist Financial reported Q3 non-interest income of $1.56 billion, better than the consensus of $1.49 billion, resulting in a +3% increase in its stock [16] Sector Performance - Most of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks rallied, with Tesla closing up more than +2% and Apple up more than +1% [14] - Mining stocks fell sharply after gold prices dropped by more than 1% and silver prices sank by over 5%, with Kinross Gold down more than -9% and Newmont down more than -7% [19] - Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks experienced declines due to long liquidation, with Oracle down more than -6% and Super Micro Computer down more than -3% [18] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The markets are anticipating a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [8] - The ongoing US government shutdown is delaying key economic reports, with an estimated 640,000 federal workers expected to be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [6][11]

The central bank's quarterly business-outlook survey and September's consumer-price index data are slated for release next week. ...

Economic Environment - The US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and payroll reports [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Trade Relations - Escalating trade tensions between the US and China have led to increased demand for precious metals, with gold and silver reaching all-time highs [2] - President Trump indicated that current tariffs on China are "not sustainable," which has eased some trade concerns [3] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes are showing slight recovery, supported by better-than-expected Q3 earnings from regional banks like Truist Financial and Regions Financial [4] - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.14%, the Dow Jones is up +0.43%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up +0.07% [5] Earnings Season - The Q3 earnings season is underway, with 78% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts [6] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-over-year [6] Interest Rates and Bonds - The market is anticipating a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [7] - The 10-year T-note yield has increased to 3.992%, rebounding from a recent low [8][9] Sector Movements - Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are experiencing declines, with Oracle down more than -5% [12] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are also falling as Bitcoin prices drop, affecting companies like Coinbase and Riot Platforms [13] Company-Specific News - American Express reported Q3 EPS of $4.14, exceeding consensus estimates, leading to a +3% increase in stock price [16] - Truist Financial's Q3 non-interest income of $1.56 billion was better than expected, contributing to a +3% rise in its stock [16] - Micron Technology plans to stop supplying server chips to data centers in China, leading to a decline in its stock price [15]

As news of sour banks loans rattled Wall Street, CNBC's Jim Cramer said the developments will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates — a move that investors across the board have been hoping for."Today got real ugly, but at least we finally have something that can make the Federal Reserve itchy to cut interest rates sooner rather than later: bank loans gone bad," he said. "Nothing motivates the Fed to move faster than credit losses, because they're a definitive sign that the economy is ...

Economic and Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline, marking a third consecutive session of losses against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, influenced by U.S.-China tensions and Federal Reserve remarks [1][2] - The dollar weakened by 0.49% to 0.793 against the Swiss franc, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and market uncertainty [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.33% to 98.35, with U.S. Treasury yields near multi-week lows, indicating pressure on the dollar amid a potential prolonged U.S. government shutdown [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed job market signals [3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates emerging economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and lower-income households, which may influence future rate decisions [4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The dominant narrative remains U.S.-China trade tensions, with China increasing pressure ahead of a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, raising questions about potential negotiation strategies [2] European Economic Developments - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, allowing him to deliver a budget and temporarily suspending controversial pension reforms, which positively impacted the euro, pushing it to a one-week high at $1.1688 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, the newly appointed Fed governor, advocates for a half-point interest rate cut due to trade tensions and economic uncertainty, although a quarter-point cut is more likely at the upcoming meeting [1][2][3]. Interest Rate Cuts - Miran plans to push for a 50 basis point cut, while expecting a 25 basis point reduction, predicting a total of three 25 basis point cuts this year, amounting to 75 basis points [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point last month, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with the current target range set at 4% to 4.25% [4][14]. Economic Context - The U.S. consumer inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, complicating the decision-making process for policymakers [6]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports another quarter-point cut, emphasizing the need to balance economic growth with inflation control [6][7]. Labor Market Concerns - There are warnings from the labor market that a hiring slump could increase unemployment, suggesting that lower rates could stimulate economic growth [3][10]. - Policymakers are cautious due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, leading to a divided opinion on the pace of rate cuts [4][11]. Data Availability Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delayed inflation and jobs reports due to a government shutdown, which hinders timely economic decision-making [12]. - Miran expressed the necessity of having economic data to inform decisions, indicating reliance on forecasts in the absence of current data [13].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is impacting various sectors of the economy, including stocks, housing, and borrowing costs [1] - Lower interest rates are prompting U.S. banks to reduce their prime lending rates, making credit more accessible for businesses and consumers [1][4] Economic Impact - The rate cut signifies the end of a tightening cycle, but concerns regarding jobs, inflation, and national debt remain [2] - Lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers can lead to increased capital for growth, new projects, and hiring, potentially boosting stock prices [4] - Cheaper capital encourages reinvestment and spending, which can enhance economic activity and raise asset prices [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to position themselves ahead of increased economic activity, particularly in sectors like technology and real estate, which typically respond positively to declining borrowing costs [6] - The full economic impact of the rate cut is expected to unfold over months, emphasizing the importance of patience in investment strategies [6] Treasury Yield Influence - The 10-year Treasury yield plays a crucial role in determining long-term borrowing costs, such as mortgages and corporate loans, and is influenced by investor sentiment regarding inflation and national debt stability [7] - Mortgage rates may not decrease immediately following a Fed rate cut, as they depend on long-term Treasury yields rather than solely on Fed policy [5][7]

Core Insights - December U.S. Treasury bond futures are showing a bullish trend, having reached a 6.5-month high this week, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][2] - The U.S. economy is exhibiting enough weakness to suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by at least 0.5% in the near future, which is favorable for U.S. Treasury prices [2] - A breakout above the chart resistance at this week's high of 118 25/32 in December T-Bond futures would signal a buying opportunity, with an upside price target of 125 or higher [3] Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart for December U.S. Treasury bond futures shows prices trending higher, supported by a bullish MACD indicator, where the blue MACD line is above the red trigger line [1] - Technical support for placing a protective sell stop is identified at 116 even, providing a risk management level for potential trades [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed signals from the job market [1][2] Labor Market Analysis - Waller believes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at the meeting concluding on October 29, based on labor market data [2] - He noted a weakening demand in the labor market, despite lower net immigration and a decline in labor force participation this year [4] - The current labor market shows low hiring and firing rates, which Waller describes as "ominous" [4][6] Future Rate Cuts - Waller indicated that if the labor market continues to soften and inflation remains controlled, the FOMC should consider reducing the policy rate to a neutral level, estimated to be 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][7] - The anticipated policy rate would then be in the range of 2.75%-3.00% [5] Economic Context - The upcoming FOMC meeting is set against a backdrop of limited data availability due to the U.S. government shutdown, which complicates the assessment of the job market [4][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed's focus remains on the job market while inflation pressures are expected to align with the Fed's 2% target [3]