Schiff pointed out that Morgan Stanley is leading the rethink. Instead of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson now favors 60% stocks, 20% fixed income and 20% gold.That’s a serious concern because bonds remain a core holding in many Americans’ portfolios, especially retirement accounts. For retirees and near-retirees counting on those holdings to preserve purchasing power, inflation can quietly erode wealth — even when markets appear calm. If inflation spikes again, ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a bull market year with an increase of almost 20% [1] - Historical patterns suggest that stocks often rally on bad news during early bull markets, with some large-cap stocks showing sell-offs on good news [4][5] Economic Indicators - Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target but is declining, reaching a four-year low [6] - The economy is performing well, with previous concerns about economic downturns not materializing [5] Market Dynamics - The NASDAQ has increased by 130% since the bear market lows in October 2022, while precious metals like gold and platinum have outperformed the broader market [8][9] - Structural forces such as the dollar, oil prices, and ten-year treasury yields are currently supportive of equity markets, with all three at or near 52-week lows [10] Historical Comparisons - The performance of the NASDAQ over the past three years has closely mirrored the trajectory of the NASDAQ following the launch of Netscape in the early 90s, with a similar percentage increase [11][12]

Welcome back. Our next guest says tariffs reshuffled winners and losers in retail, but they didn't stop consumers from spending this holiday season, even as postol returns are now rolling in. Joining us now to break down how the sector performed this year and what lies ahead in 2026, Jen Niffin, CEO of Jay Rogers Niffin, WWE.Jan, thank you for being here. Happy holidays to you. Um, so we've got this retail environment now where consumers are spending more than expected during the holiday season.GDP is doing ...

Fact checked by Betsy Petrick NIKOLA ILIC PR AGENCIJA ZA DIZAJN STUDIOTRIPOD SURCIN / Getty Images Planning for retirement takes a little math. Key Takeaways Financial planners typically advise saving enough to replace about 75% of your pre-tax income for retirement. For the median U.S. household income ($83,730), you'd need about $5,233 per month in retirement. Using the 4% rule, that means that you'd need to save $1.57 million in total. When preparing for retirement, you're probably wondering, wil ...

Hint: It's a change that will affect you even if you're not receiving benefits.There's a reason so many seniors on Social Security eagerly await news of a cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, announcement each year. Those raises are crucial in helping retirees maintain their buying power over time.Social Security COLAs are based on inflation. When there's an increase in inflation from one year to the next, benefits are eligible for a boost. But Social Security benefits themselves aren't the only thing that g ...

"As Treasury Secretary, my job is to be the nation's top bond salesman. And Treasury yields are a strong barometer for measuring success in this endeavor," Bessent said in a November 12 speech, noting borrowing costs were down across the curve. The Treasury did not respond to a request for comment for this story.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – a former hedge fund manager - has repeatedly said he is focused on keeping yields down, especially on the benchmark 10-year bond, which affects the cost of everyth ...

ab 23 December 2025 Global Research US Economic Data Strong Q3 GDP pulls up 2025 growth Source: BEA, Haver, UBS Economics Americas Abigail Watt Economist abigail.watt@ubs.com +1-212-882 6929 Strong GDP to lift annual growth rates The BEA estimates real GDP expanded 4.3% (saar) in Q3, ahead of estimates and which mathematically lifts our 2025 Q4/Q4 and annual average growth rates. As a result we revised up our 2025 Q4/Q4 real GDP projection by ¼ pp to 2.0%. In Q3, real personal consumption expenditures rose ...

Japan Outlook Report Foreign Exchange - Global Japanese macroeconomic outlook and market strategies for 2026 1. Japan's economy: We look for ongoing recovery as core inflation falls below 2% We believe Japan's economy will remain on a recovery path in 2026, with consumer spending supported by PM Takaichi's economic package and strong capex to compensate for labor shortages. We expect core CPI inflation (all items less fresh food) to fall below 2% y-y in 2026 Q1 and remain there for a year. We base this outl ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly influence economic activity and corporate profitability, with a friendlier Fed generally benefiting investors [1][4]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve meets approximately every eight weeks to set interest rates, indirectly affecting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers [2]. - The Fed Funds Rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight reserves, impacts Treasury yields, lending rates, and overall interest expenses [4]. Rate Changes and Economic Impact - In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.75%, but the outlook for further reductions in 2026 remains uncertain [5]. - The Fed's dual mandate aims to balance low unemployment and low inflation, but these goals often conflict, especially in 2025 as inflation rose while unemployment also increased [9]. Inflation Trends - Inflation was recorded at 2.3% in April 2025, rising to 3% by September before decreasing to 2.7% in October, influenced by incomplete data collection due to a government shutdown [10].

The traditional Santa Claus Rally period encompasses the final five trading days of 2025 (December 26, 29, 30, 31, and January 2) and represents one of the most closely watched seasonal patterns in market history. Since 1969, the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) has averaged gains of 1.3% during this seven-day period, with positive returns occurring roughly 78% of the time. The phenomenon is attributed to various factors including year-end portfolio adjustments, tax-loss harvesting completion, pension fund rebalancing, ...