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沪深300增强本周超额基准1.13%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-25 03:45
Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [8][10] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 14.32%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 15.59% [11] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [13][17] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.67%, with an annualized excess return of 27.15% over the benchmark [17] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for this strategy is 16.76%, outperforming the benchmark by 18.03% [17] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, focusing on stocks with low valuations and strong profitability [19] - Historical backtesting shows stable excess returns for this strategy, with a year-to-date excess return of 8.60% relative to the CSI 300 index [19][20] - The strategy has achieved a weekly excess return of 1.13% and a monthly excess return of 2.18% [20]
净利润断层本周超额基准2.68%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-18 06:43
Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a multiplier effect on returns, specifically targeting both earnings per share (EPS) and PE for a "double-click" effect [1][8] - Historical backtesting from 2010 to 2017 showed an annualized return of 26.45%, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08%, with consistent excess returns over 11% in each of the seven complete years [9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 15.08%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 15.25%, and has exceeded the index by 2.36% in the past week [1][9] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day following earnings announcements, reflecting market recognition of the earnings report [2][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.78%, with an annualized excess return of 27.18%, and a cumulative absolute return of 17.67% this year, outperforming the benchmark by 17.85% [2][16] - The strategy has also shown a weekly excess return of 2.68% [2][16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences categorized as GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth-oriented, and value-oriented, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential [3][18] - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns for this strategy, with a year-to-date excess return of 7.41% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.13% [3][18] - The strategy utilizes PBROE and PEG factors to identify stocks with low valuations and strong earnings capabilities, as well as those with reliable growth potential [3][18]
沪深300增强本周超额基准1.57%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-05 09:56
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Davis Double Play Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a low P/E ratio and selling them after their growth potential is realized, leading to an increase in both EPS and P/E, thereby achieving a "double play" effect [2][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify stocks with accelerating earnings growth - Evaluate the reasonableness of stock pricing using the PEG indicator, which considers the relationship between P/E and earnings growth rate - Select stocks with controlled downside risk in P/E and high growth potential [8] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong stability, with annual excess returns exceeding 11% in all seven complete years during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017 [11] 2. Model Name: Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks with earnings surprises ("net profit") and a significant upward price gap ("gap") following earnings announcements [3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Screen stocks with earnings surprises based on earnings forecasts and financial reports over the past two months - Rank stocks by the magnitude of the price gap on the first trading day after the earnings announcement - Construct an equal-weight portfolio of the top 50 stocks with the largest price gaps [13] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has achieved a high annualized return of 28.51% since 2010, with an annualized excess return of 26.74% over the benchmark, demonstrating strong performance [17] 3. Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on investor preferences, categorized into GARP, growth, and value styles. It uses PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [4][19] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct the PBROE factor as the difference between the percentile ranks of PB and ROE, targeting undervalued stocks with strong profitability - Construct the PEG factor as the difference between the percentile ranks of PE and growth rate, targeting undervalued stocks with reliable growth potential - Combine these factors to build an enhanced CSI 300 portfolio [19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated stable excess returns in historical backtests, with consistent outperformance relative to the CSI 300 index [19] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Davis Double Play Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 26.45% (2010-2017) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 21.08% (2010-2017) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 9.36% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 7.27% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: -1.29% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -20.14% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.07 [2][11][12] 2. Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 28.51% (2010-present) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 26.74% (2010-present) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 10.90% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 8.81% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: -0.16% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -37.12% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.72 [3][15][17] 3. CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 9.18% (full sample) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.66% (full sample) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 2.42% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 4.29% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: 1.57% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -9.18% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.94 [4][19][20]