Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][2][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 5625 points, with a profit-making effect value of 3.73%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][2][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, specifically Hong Kong stocks in innovative pharmaceuticals and securities. The upward trend is still ongoing. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals, are expected to maintain an upward trajectory [3][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power [2][3][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double Strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 41.19% this year, exceeding the benchmark by 26.47%. This week, the strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.62% [8][22] - The net profit gap strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 42.83% this year, with a benchmark excess return of 28.11% [12][16] - The enhanced CSI 300 strategy has achieved an excess return of 19.88% relative to the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 0.01% [17][20]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market. The current WIND All A trend line is around 5540 points, with a profit-making effect value of 2.30%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][4][8]. Industry Rotation - In terms of industry allocation, the model continues to recommend sectors that are in a turnaround phase, specifically Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities, as the upward trend persists. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power. Short-term signals indicate that the liquor and agriculture sectors are entering a low point in the emotional cycle, which may lead to a rebound [2][4][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an excess benchmark of 1.32% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 33.83% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy also outperformed the benchmark by 1.77% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 19.41% for the year. The net profit gap strategy had an excess benchmark of -0.26% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 37.50% for the year [1][9][15]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is at the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to maintain an 80% allocation [4][6][8].

Group 1: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE increases [7][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 29.82%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 21.30%, with a weekly excess return of 3.76% [10][14] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12][14] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.83%, with an annualized excess return of 27.67% over the benchmark [14] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for the strategy is 35.44%, exceeding the benchmark index by 26.93%, with a weekly excess return of 0.43% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PE-growth factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong earnings potential [16] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.08% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.45% [16] - The portfolio's performance for the current year reflects a 20.13% absolute return, with a 17.08% excess return over the benchmark [16]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Davis Double Play Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a low P/E ratio and selling them after their growth potential is realized, leading to an increase in both EPS and P/E, thereby achieving a "double play" effect [2][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify stocks with accelerating earnings growth - Evaluate the reasonableness of stock pricing using the PEG indicator, which considers the relationship between P/E and earnings growth rate - Select stocks with controlled downside risk in P/E and high growth potential [8] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong stability, with annual excess returns exceeding 11% in all seven complete years during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017 [11] 2. Model Name: Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks with earnings surprises ("net profit") and a significant upward price gap ("gap") following earnings announcements [3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Screen stocks with earnings surprises based on earnings forecasts and financial reports over the past two months - Rank stocks by the magnitude of the price gap on the first trading day after the earnings announcement - Construct an equal-weight portfolio of the top 50 stocks with the largest price gaps [13] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has achieved a high annualized return of 28.51% since 2010, with an annualized excess return of 26.74% over the benchmark, demonstrating strong performance [17] 3. Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on investor preferences, categorized into GARP, growth, and value styles. It uses PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [4][19] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct the PBROE factor as the difference between the percentile ranks of PB and ROE, targeting undervalued stocks with strong profitability - Construct the PEG factor as the difference between the percentile ranks of PE and growth rate, targeting undervalued stocks with reliable growth potential - Combine these factors to build an enhanced CSI 300 portfolio [19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated stable excess returns in historical backtests, with consistent outperformance relative to the CSI 300 index [19] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Davis Double Play Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 26.45% (2010-2017) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 21.08% (2010-2017) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 9.36% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 7.27% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: -1.29% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -20.14% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.07 [2][11][12] 2. Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 28.51% (2010-present) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 26.74% (2010-present) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 10.90% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 8.81% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: -0.16% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -37.12% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.72 [3][15][17] 3. CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 9.18% (full sample) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.66% (full sample) - **Cumulative Absolute Return (2025 YTD)**: 2.42% - **Cumulative Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 4.29% - **Weekly Excess Return (2025)**: 1.57% - **Maximum Relative Drawdown**: -9.18% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.94 [4][19][20]