Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continued growth potential in the brokerage sector, driven by improved trading activity and regulatory changes in health insurance, which are expected to catalyze a new growth cycle [3][6] - The brokerage sector is projected to see a significant increase in net profit growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of 53.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a quarterly increase of 58% in Q3 [6][7] - The report identifies three main investment themes: brokers with strong retail advantages benefiting from cross-border asset management trials, firms with robust overseas and institutional business, and those excelling in wealth management [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes a substantial increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume for stock-based funds rising by 112% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.96 trillion [7] - The number of new accounts opened in the first eight months of 2025 was 17.21 million, a 48% increase compared to the previous year [7] Investment Banking - The report highlights a recovery in the IPO market, with a total of 78 IPO projects in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and an IPO amount of 773 billion, up 61% [7][8] Asset Management - The report indicates a positive trend in public fund issuance, with new non-monetary and equity funds reaching 8.956 billion and 4.440 billion units respectively, marking increases of 5% and 183% year-on-year [8] Market Trends - The report discusses the performance of the stock and bond markets, noting a 17.94% increase in the CSI 300 index in the first three quarters of 2025, while the bond market saw a slight increase of 0.16% [9] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a year-on-year growth of 126% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points for the first time in over a decade, driven by significant inflows into the securities sector [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The securities sector has seen a net inflow of over 68.2 billion yuan into securities ETFs in the second half of the year, with securities ETFs and Hong Kong securities ETFs attracting over 21 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The financing balance in the A-share market has reached a historical high of 24.292 billion yuan as of October 9, with a single-day net purchase of 50.8 billion yuan, marking the second-highest record in history [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows - The top three ETFs by inflow in the second half of the year are the Securities ETF (238.19 billion yuan), Hong Kong Securities ETF (213.09 billion yuan), and Broker ETF (110.27 billion yuan) [2] - The Broker ETF tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in leading brokerages [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - According to招商证券, the net profit for listed brokerages in Q3 2025 is expected to reach 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, driven by significant growth in trading volumes and financing activities [4] - The brokerage sector's public fund holdings are currently at 0.90%, significantly below the benchmark of 4.26%, indicating potential for upward valuation [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see improved performance in Q3, with increased trading activity and margin financing, alongside a favorable environment for investment banking and derivative products [5] - The overall financial indicators for brokerages are showing high growth trends, with expectations for continued strategic allocation opportunities in the sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a pullback in the morning, while the brokerage sector saw an increase, indicating a potential investment opportunity in this area [1] Market Performance - As of 10:45, the Hong Kong Securities Index rose by 0.9%, and the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index increased by 1.3% [1] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) recorded a trading volume exceeding 15 billion yuan, leading the entire market in ETF transactions [1] Capital Market Data - The latest trading day saw the A-share margin financing and securities lending balance reach 2.44 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [1] - The average daily trading volume for A-shares in the third quarter was 21.3 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 210% and 67%, respectively [1] - The average daily trading volume for Hong Kong stocks in the third quarter was 222.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 172% and 29%, respectively [1] Brokerage Sector Outlook - Huatai Securities noted that the continuous increase in margin financing balance and rising market activity could benefit the securities sector, with leading brokerages currently offering high valuation attractiveness [1] - The Hong Kong Securities Index includes securities investment-themed listed companies selected from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index comprises all listed companies in the securities industry from the CSI All Share [1] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) and the E Fund Securities ETF (512570) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient access to brokerage sector investment opportunities [1]

西部证券非银金融行业首席分析师孙寅测算，在中性假设下，预计证券行业2025年第三季度净利润有望 达到672亿元，同比增长87%；前三季度净利润有望达到1800亿元，同比增长55%。从收入分项看，前 三季度行业经纪业务净收入有望达到1364亿元，同比增长82.5%；自营投资收益有望达到1462亿元，同 比增长14.1%。 ● 本报记者 胡雨 前三季度A股市场主要股指上行、交投活跃状态延续叠加低基数效应，当前机构对于证券行业2025年第 三季度及前三季度经营业绩持续改善持积极态度。就投资而言，机构认为，当前证券行业景气度上行趋 势未改，其仍是年内不可多得的具备相对低估值和业绩同比高增长特征的细分领域资产，投资价值值得 关注。 三季报业绩增速或提升 10月9日，A股三大股指集体收涨，成交额继续维持在2万亿元以上，整体延续了三季度以来的交投活跃 状态。从行业板块表现看，券商指数收涨0.20%，成分股中，红塔证券大涨逾5%，广发证券、华泰证 券、中泰证券、第一创业、西部证券等均涨逾2%。 回顾A股2025年前三季度整体表现，三大股指集体上涨并不断创出阶段新高，市场日成交额维持在相对 高位，183个交易日中有180个交易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the holiday, with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3900-point mark, reaching a 10-year high [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The brokerage sector opened lower but quickly rebounded, with the top brokerage ETF (512000) seeing a 0.5% increase in price and a trading volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan within half a day [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to show significant year-on-year growth in Q3 earnings, driven by increased market trading activity and margin financing scale [2][3] - The top brokerage ETF (512000) has attracted a net inflow of 5.383 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, with its total scale exceeding 35 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 1 billion yuan this year [3] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Red Tower Securities led the gains with a 7.13% increase, followed by First Entrepreneurship with over a 3% rise, and several other brokerages like Zhongtai Securities and Huachuang Yuxin also showing positive performance [4] - The brokerage ETF (512000) includes 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, while the remaining 40% focuses on smaller brokerages with high earnings elasticity [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 10 月 08 日 券商三季报预计延续高增长 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 90 | 1.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6427.3 | 6.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 6129.5 | 6.4 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.2 13.6 28.9 相对表现 -9.4 -5.8 13.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Oct-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 (%) 非银行金融 沪深300 券商板块最新观点 总量研究/非银行金融 流动性充盈，牛市基础夯实。散户视角下，8 月上交所开户数为 265 万户，同 比/环比分别增长 165%/35%，新增投资者跑步入场趋势延续；9 月日均交易额 2.4 万亿，环比提升近 10%；两融规模触及 2.44 万亿，绝对规模创本轮新高， 交易额占 A 股成交额比例触及 12.2%、处于较高水平，体现投资情绪高涨，但 并未狂热。机构视角下，8 月私募基金备案数达 1539 只、备 ...

东海证券非银首席分析师陶圣禹认为，"十四五"时期奠定的坚实制度基础与市场生态，将为"十五五"时 期深化投融资综合改革、服务新质生产力发展提供强劲支撑，推动资本市场在"科技-产业-金融"良性循 环中持续发挥枢纽作用，迈向更高质量的发展阶段。 在此基础上，"我们认为券商板块在市场活跃度与制度创新的双重利好加持下，有望在三季报披露期凭 借亮眼业绩进一步吸引市场关注，迎来估值修复与业绩增长的双击行情，在后续资本市场发展进程中展 现出强大的向上动能与投资潜力。"陶圣禹称。 （文章来源：第一财经） 消息面上，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会于9月23日召开。会议指出，用好证券、 基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。 另外，近期财政部发布2025年1-8月财政收支情况，其中，证券交易印花税1187亿元，同比增长81.7%。 8月单月实现251亿元，同比增长225.97%，环比增长66%。 山西证券发布研报称，近期日均成交额、两融规模持续增长，股权融资显著回暖，券商基本面持续向 好。随着资本市场改革的进一步深化，部分券商有望通过外延式和内涵式发展，探索海外业务增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing active trading, with significant inflows into the top brokerage ETF, indicating a potential investment opportunity despite recent market corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The brokerage sector has seen a cumulative decline of 8.5% in the China Securities Company Index over the past month, with the price-to-book ratio dropping to 1.53, which is at a low level compared to the past decade [3]. - The average daily trading volume and margin financing scale have been increasing, suggesting a recovery in equity financing and a positive trend in the brokerage sector's fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and ETF Performance - The top brokerage ETF (512000) has recorded a net inflow of 6.972 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, reaching a total size of 35.226 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The ETF has consistently attracted significant capital, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan this year, positioning it as one of the leading ETFs in A-shares [3]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities express optimism about strategic allocation opportunities in the brokerage sector, highlighting its high profitability and favorable valuation [4]. - Shanxi Securities notes that ongoing capital market reforms and supportive financial policies are contributing to a stable recovery in the brokerage sector, with potential for steady growth through both internal and external development strategies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in net profits and investor participation, driven by supportive government policies and improved market conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 24, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index rose by 0.21%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Xiangcai Co. (3.55%) and Guotou Capital (2.13%) [1]. - The Securities ETF (512000) has seen a 48.21% increase in net value over the past year, with a peak monthly return of 38.02% since its inception [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Securities ETF recorded a turnover of 1.46% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 5.09 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past 19 days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 6.836 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 360 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Outlook - The securities industry achieved a net profit of 112.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 40.37%, with all major business segments showing recovery [2]. - The number of new investor accounts has surged by 47.9% year-on-year, indicating heightened market participation [2]. - Analysts predict a sustained upward trend in the capital market, with potential for further valuation recovery in the securities sector [3]. Group 4: ETF Composition and Strategy - The Securities ETF tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed securities firms, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector has experienced a continuous adjustment since the end of August, but there is still significant capital inflow, indicating a strategic investment opportunity in the sector due to its solid fundamentals and low valuation levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity and Performance - As of September 19, the brokerage ETF (512000) has seen a net inflow of over 6 billion yuan over 17 consecutive trading days [1]. - The non-bank financial sector has shown a slight increase of 0.81% as of September 22, but has declined over 8% from its peak on August 25 [1]. - The trading activity in the capital market has significantly increased since July, leading to high performance expectations for brokerages [1]. Group 2: Growth Expectations - Analysts expect the brokerage sector to maintain high growth in Q3, driven by increased trading activity and a low base effect, with year-on-year performance growth likely to expand further [1][2]. - The demand for wealth management among residents is anticipated to continue rising, contributing to double-digit profit growth for brokerages in Q3 [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Strategic Opportunities - The brokerage sector's valuation remains at historically low levels, with potential for significant recovery as the capital market is expected to trend upward [2]. - Analysts highlight the potential for the brokerage sector to expand its business depth and breadth, driven by a favorable long-term market outlook [2][3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on leading institutions benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape, brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3]. - Additionally, attention should be given to brokerages with advantages in retail business and those benefiting from cross-border asset management pilot programs in Hainan [3].